Vegetation is the terrestrial ecosystem component most sensitive to climate change. The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), characterized by a cold climate and vulnerable ecosystems, has experienced significant warming in previous decades. Identifying the variation in vegetation coverage and elucidating its main driving factors are critical for ecological protection on the QTP. In this study, MOD13A2 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data in the growing season (May to September) was used to represent QTP vegetation coverage during 2000–2019. The univariate linear regression, partial correlation analysis, residual analysis, and the Hurst exponent were used to detect the vegetation spatiotemporal dynamic, analyze the relationship between the vegetation and main driving factors, and predict the future vegetation dynamic. The growing season NDVI (GNDVI) of the QTP showed an extremely significant rate of increase (0.0011/a) during the study period, and 79.29% of the vegetated areas showed a greening trend. Over the past 20 years, the northeast, mid-east, and western edges of the plateau have been cooling and wetting, while the southwest, mid-west, and southeast have been warming and drying. Different climatic conditions lead to spatial differences in the response of plateau vegetation to climatic factors with generally 1–4 months lag time. The vegetation in the north of the plateau was mainly positively correlated with moisture, and negatively correlated with temperature, while the southern part showed positive correlation with temperature and negative correlation with moisture. Due to the enhancement of cooling and wetting trend in the last decade (2010–2019), especially in the south of the plateau, the greening trend of the plateau vegetation slowed down appreciably and even degraded in some areas. Human activities were mainly concentrated in the eastern part of the plateau—and its positive effect on vegetation was gradually increasing in most areas during study period, especially in the northeastern part. However, vegetation degradation caused by human activities in the southeast of the plateau should not be ignored. The future vegetation dynamic based on the Hurst exponent showed that the plateau faces a higher risk of vegetation degradation, which deserves more attention. This study explored the effect of climatic factors and human activities on vegetation of the QTP, thereby providing some guidance for the study of vegetation dynamic in the alpine areas.

Fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) plays an important role in monitoring vegetation growth status and evaluating restoration efforts in ecological environments. In this study, FVC was calculated using a binary pixel model and analyzed in the Pisha Sandstone area of China, using MODIS-EVI data from 2000 to 2019. Topographic effects were analyzed from elevation, slope and aspect using a terrain niche index model. The results were as follows. (1) From 2000 to 2019, FVC in the Pisha Sandstone area of China gradually increased at a mean rate of 0.0074/a, and the growth status of vegetation gradually improved. (2) The spatial distribution of FVC steadily decreased from southeast to northwest. FVC was the lowest in bare parts of the Pisha Sandstone area, whereas those in the sand- and soil-covered parts were the middle and highest, respectively. (3) With increasing elevation, the inferior coverage area and terrain niche index increased, and inferior coverage distribution changed from non-dominant to dominant. Meanwhile, the low, medium and high coverage areas decreased, and their distributions changed from dominance to non-dominance. (4) With increasing slope, distributions of the inferior, medium and high coverage areas changed from dominant to non-dominant, while the low coverage area had a dominant distribution. (5) Analyses of aspect effects revealed that the inferior coverage area was the dominant distribution in shady slopes but was non-dominant in semi-shady, semi-sunny and sunny slopes. The low, medium and high coverage areas were non-dominant in shady slopes, but dominant in semi-shady, semi-sunny and sunny slopes.

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), which is known as Earth’s “Third Pole”, is a driver of global climate change, and long-term monitoring of QTP vegetation can reveal changes attributable to climatic and human influences. Previous research monitoring vegetation on the QTP focused primarily on spatiotemporal variations of vegetation indices, while few studies have considered fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in relation to topographic and frozen soil factors. We used MODIS-EVI, digital elevation models, and frozen soil data to investigate topographic effects on vegetation growth status in different soil types on the QTP during 2000–2020. (1) FVC showed a trend of increase during 2000–2020, and the FVC on the QTP decreased from the southeast to the northwest in spatial distribution. FVC in permafrost regions was the lowest, followed by seasonal frozen soil areas; FVC in unfrozen areas was the highest. (2) With increasing elevation, FVC of permafrost, seasonal frozen, and unfrozen soil areas showed downward trends for each aspect. In seasonal frozen soil areas, at elevation ≤4000 m (>4000 m), FVC of sunny (shady) slopes was greater than that of shady (sunny) slopes. In permafrost regions, except at elevations of 3000–4000 m, FVC of shady slopes was greater than that of sunny slopes. In unfrozen soil areas, at elevation >4000 m, FVC of sunny slopes was obviously greater than that of shady slopes. (3) With increasing slope, FVC in seasonal frozen and permafrost soil (unfrozen soil) regions showed a trend of increase (decrease). In seasonal frozen soil areas, FVC of sunny (shady) slopes was greater than that of shady (sunny) slopes on slopes ≤6° (>6°). In permafrost regions, FVC of sunny slopes was less than that of shady slopes. With increasing slope, the influence of aspect became more obvious. In unfrozen soil areas, FVC of sunny slopes was slightly greater than that of shady slopes. Topographic effects especially the elevation and slope effects might significantly affect the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation growth status in frozen soil regions on the QTP.

The Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR), located in the hinterland of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), is an important water-conservation and ecological-function reserve in China. Studies of the growth of vegetation in the TRHR and its response to climate under the background of global warming are of great relevance for ecological protection of the QTP. In this study, based on MOD13Q1 Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data and ERA5-Land climate data, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method, random forest algorithm, and Hurst exponent were used to detect the spatiotemporal dynamics and response to climate change in TRHR vegetation during 2000–2021. The results indicated the following. (1) Comparatively, the condition of vegetation growth was better in 2021, 2010, and 2018 and poorer in 2015, 2003, and 2008. The EVI gradually decreased from the southeast to the northwest, and the area of improved vegetation growth was larger than the area of degraded vegetation growth. (2) The area of zones with either monotonous greening or monotonous browning of vegetation was 30.30% and 6.30%, respectively, and the trend of reversed vegetation change occurred in 63.40% of the areas. The area of future degradation of vegetation in the TRHR was larger than the area of future improvement, and the risk of vegetation degradation was higher. (3) Precipitation and soil temperature are the main and secondary driving factors of vegetation change in the TRHR, respectively. Warming and humidification of the QTP climate play major roles in the improvement of vegetation growth in the TRHR.