Human behavior is notoriously difficult to change, but a disruption of the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to bring about long-term behavioral changes. During the pandemic, people have been forced to experience new ways of interacting, working, learning, shopping, traveling, and eating meals. A critical question going forward is how these experiences have actually changed preferences and habits in ways that might persist after the pandemic ends. Many observers have suggested theories about what the future will bring, but concrete evidence has been lacking. We present evidence on how much US adults expect their own postpandemic choices to differ from their prepandemic lifestyles in the areas of telecommuting, restaurant patronage, air travel, online shopping, transit use, car commuting, uptake of walking and biking, and home location. The analysis is based on a nationally representative survey dataset collected between July and October 2020. Key findings include that the “new normal” will feature a doubling of telecommuting, reduced air travel, and improved quality of life for some.

This study focuses on the long-term impacts of COVID-19 on telecommuting behavior. We seek to study the future of telecommuting, in the post-pandemic era, by capturing the evolution of observed behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, we implemented a comprehensive multi-wave nationwide panel survey (the Future Survey) in the U.S. throughout 2020 and 2021. A panel Generalized Structural Equation Model (GSEM) was used to investigate the effects of two perceptual factors on telecommuting behavior: (1) perceived risk of COVID-19; and (2) perceived telecommuting productivity. The findings of this study reveal significant and positive impacts of productivity and COVID-risk perception on telecommuting behavior. Moreover, the findings indicate a potential shift in preferences toward telecommuting in the post-pandemic era for millennials, employees with long commute times, high-income, and highly educated employees. Overall, a potential increase in telecommuting frequency is expected in the post-pandemic era, with differences across socio-economic groups.