The study reveals that there is a relationship between foreign direct investments, trade, and growth rate of per capita GDP for Bangladesh with the help of annual time series data for 1973 to 2014. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis shows that there is a long-term relationship between these variables. To check the validity of the VECM model, we did a few post-estimation diagnostic tests, and found that the residuals of the regressions have a normal distribution and do not show any auto-correlation. The trade and foreign investment variables have a significant impact on the growth rate of GDP per capita. Because FDI and trade are two important components of economic growth in Bangladesh, it is important to frame policies that promote growth and reduce the barriers for capital flows.
This study looks at some non-conventional determinants of economic growth, with the help of the newly developed economic freedom index datasets of the Heritage Foundation/Wall Street Journal(HF/WSJ), which is a cumulative index derived from several sub-indices (trade freedom index, financial freedom, labor freedom, business and fiscal freedom index). The cumulative economic freedom index show us how open and business friendly a country is. The sub-indices show us openness across different sector of the economy, for example, the financial sector or the trade sector etc. Traditional neo-classical economic theories have explained economic growth looking at the supply of labor, capital and state of technology, with little attention being paid to institutional factors. The study presents evidence based on two panel data-sets. The first set consists of 186 countries over the period 2013, 2014 and 2015 that show institutional factors play a crucial role in economic growth. A second data-set with data for 57 countries for the period 2004–2014 also show a positive impact on the index on the growth rate of per capita GDP.
The findings from the VECM for BBS data reveal that there is a positive and significant relationship between FD and GDPGR, supporting the Keynesian theory, while findings from the VECM for World Bank data indicate that the impact of Fiscal Deficit (FD) on GDPGR is mild but negative and significant at the 5% level. This contradicts the Keynesian theory, but is in accord with Neo-classical theory which asserts that fiscal deficits lead to a drop in the GDP. Nevertheless, the government must strive to keep deficit under control, not to hamper growth, and expenditure ought to be set so as to avoid massive deficits leading to debt financing and the crowding-out effect of private investment. If deficits become unsustainable, it can lead to higher interest payments, and the government may well default. Although in the economic literature, there is no definitive conclusion as to whether fiscal deficit helps or hinders economic growth for any country, many argue that fiscal deficit leads to economic growth of a country, which cannot be achieved only through domestic savings, not enough for investment. It can be assumed safely that to some extent fiscal deficit is good for economic growth if the borrowed money is spent on beneficial projects, provided the return from such investments exceeds the funding cost. For future research work, it will be interesting to examine the relationships between government spending, economic growth and long-term interest rate for Bangladesh.
26 September 2018 in Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy
We investigate the relationship between economic growth and the earth's environment in 127 developing countries spreading all across the globe (Asia, Africa, Americas, Europe, and Polynesia) from 2007 to 2015. We use random effect estimation technique to check for an inverse U-shaped curve, or ‘Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)’. From our empirical results, we do not find any substantiation for this hypothesis. On the contrary, the empirical evidence suggests that there is an inverse U-shape relationship between environmental performance of a country and the per capita GDP for that country, which implies that, as per capita GDP increases, environmental performance improves but beyond some point, it starts to decrease resulting in an inverse U-shape curve. We alternately use the Growth Rate of GDP and GDP in constant 2010$ to obtain comparable results. We also use the average PM 2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (AU) of the World Development Indicators as an index of environmental pollution. When we replace EPI with AU and re-run the random effect model, find no evidence supporting EKC hypothesis, rather a U-shape curve and not an inverted U.