Demand for freshwater is rising with factors, such as population growth, land use change and climate variations, rendering water availability in the future uncertain. Groundwater resources are being increasingly exploited to meet this growing demand. The aim of this study is to identify the influence of population growth induced by land use change and climate change on the future state of freshwater resources of Lamu Island in Kenya where a major port facility is under construction. The results of this study show that the “no industrial development” population scenario (assuming the port was not constructed) would be expected to reach ~50,000 people by 2050, while the projected population upon completion is expected to reach 1.25 million in the same year when the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor Program (LAPSSET) port reaches its full cargo-handling capacity. The groundwater abstraction in 2009 was 0.06 m³ daily per capita, while the demand is expected to raise to 0.1 m³ by 2050 according to the “LAPSSET development” projection. The modelling results show that the Shela aquifer in Lamu, which is the main source of water on the island, will not experience stress by 2065 for the “no industrial development” population scenario, whereas for the “LAPSSET development projection” population scenario, it will occur sooner (between 2020 and 2028). The modelling results show that the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios will have a smaller impact on the effective water volume reserves than Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) for the “no industrial development”, while the impact is expected to be similar for the “LAPSSET development”, suggesting that population growth exacerbated by land use change will be a more significant driving force than climate change in affecting freshwater availability.

Implications of Artisanal Mining on Food Security: A Survey of Selected Counties in Kenya

The possible impacts that climate change will have on soil water budget and specifically on deep percolation, runoff and soil water content have been investigated using HYDRUS, a methodology based on numerical modelling simulations of vertical water movement in a homogenous soil column on a flat surface. This study was carried out on four typical soil types occurring on the Kenyan coast and the adjacent hinterlands of up to an elevation of 200 m above sea level (m a.s.l.) covered by five weather stations (two dry and three wet stations). Results show that deep percolation and runoff are expected to be higher in 2100 for both Relative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios than they were for the reference period (1986–2005). The average deep percolation is expected to increase by 14% for RCP 2.6 and 10% for the RCP 8.5, while the average runoff is expected to increase by 188% and 284% for the same scenarios. Soil water content is expected to either increase marginally or reduce depend in the same scenarios. The average soil water content is also expected to increase by 1% in the RCP 2.6 scenario and to decrease by 2% in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increase in deep percolation through clay soil is expected to be the largest (29% in both scenarios), while sandy and sandy clay soil are expected to be the least influenced with an average increase of only 2%. Climate change is expected to impact runoff mostly in sandy soils, whereas the least affected would be clay loam soils. These results further support the assertion that the change in climate is expected to impact the recharge of aquifers by triggering an increase in infiltration under both scenarios.