Background: Tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) are of important prognostic and predictive value in human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive (HER2+) breast cancer (BC) and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), but their clinical relevance in oestrogen receptor-positive/HER2-negative (ER+/HER2−) remains unknown. The primary study aim was to analyse the prognostic effect of TILs on the BC-free interval (BCFi) in premenopausal patients stratified by BC subtypes. The secondary aim was to investigate if TILs are predictive of tamoxifen (TAM) benefit. Methods: Archival tissues from primary breast tumours were collected from patients from the SBII:2pre trial, in which 564 premenopausal women were randomised to 2 years of adjuvant TAM or no systemic treatment, regardless of hormone receptor status. TILs were scored on whole tissue sections from 447 patients with available ER status. Tumours were divided into ER+/HER2−, HER2+ and TNBC subtypes by immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridisation. The prognostic value of TILs was analysed in systemically untreated patients (n = 221); the predictive information was investigated in the ER+ subgroup (n = 321) by cumulative incidence curves and Cox regression analyses. The median follow-up was 28 years. Results: High (≥ 50%) infiltration of TILs was a favourable prognostic factor in terms of BCFi (univariable analysis: hazard ratio_BCFi (HR_BCFi) 0.40; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.22–0.71; P = 0.002). Similar effects were observed across all BC subtypes. The effect of adjuvant TAM was stronger in patients with ER+ tumours and TILs < 50% (HR_BCFi 0.63; 95% CI 0.47–0.84; P = 0.002) than in patients with high immune infiltration (≥ 50%) (HR_BCFi 0.84; 95% CI (0.24–2.86); P = 0.77). However, evidence for differential effects of TAM in categories of TILs, i.e. interaction, was weak. Conclusions: We demonstrate a long-term favourable prognostic value of high infiltration of TILs in a cohort of premenopausal BC patients and the positive prognostic effect was extended to the ER+/HER2− subgroup. A beneficial effect of TAM in ER+ patients was observed in patients with tumours of low TIL infiltration, but evidence for a treatment predictive effect was weak. Trial registration: This trial is registered in the ISRCTN database, trial ID: ISRCTN12474687.

Background: PAM50 breast cancer intrinsic subtyping adds prognostic information in early breast cancer; however, the role in metastatic disease is unclear. We aimed to identify PAM50 subtypes in primary tumors (PTs) and metastases to outline subtype changes and their prognostic role. Methods: RNA was isolated from PTs, lymph node metastases (LNMs), and distant metastases (DMs) in metastatic breast cancer patients (n = 140) included in a prospective study (NCT01322893). Gene expression analyses were performed using the Breast Cancer 360 (BC360) assay from Nano-String. The subtype shifts were evaluated using McNemar and symmetry tests, and clinical outcomes were evaluated with log-rank tests and Cox regression. Results: The PAM50 subtype changed in 25/59 of paired samples between PTs and LNMs (P_symmetry = 0.002), in 31/61 between PTs and DMs (P_symmetry < 0.001), and in 16/38 between LNMs and DMs (P_symmetry = 0.004). Shifts toward subtypes with worse outcomes were the most common. Patients with shifts from the luminal PT to non-luminal DM subtypes had worse progression-free survival compared to patients with a stable subtype (hazard ratio (HR): 2.3; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14–4.68, p = 0.02). Conclusion: Strong evidence of PAM50 subtype shifts toward unfavorable subtypes were seen between PTs and metastatic samples. For patients with a shift in subtype from luminal PT to non-luminal DM, a worse prognosis was noted.

Background: Invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) has distinguishing features when compared to invasive ductal carcinoma of no special type (NST). In this study, we explored the distributional and prognostic characteristics of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) in metastatic ILC and NST. Materials and methods: Patients were included in an observational trial (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01322893) with ILC (n = 28) and NST (n = 111). CTC count (number/7.5 mL blood) was evaluated with serial sampling (CellSearch). The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). Results: The CTC counts were higher in ILC (median 70) than in NST cases (median 2) at baseline (p < 0.001). The evidence for ≥5 CTCs as a prognostic factor for PFS in ILC was weak, but stronger with higher cut-offs (CTC ≥ 20: hazard ratio (HR) 3.0, p = 0.01) (CTC ≥ 80: HR 3.6, p = 0.004). In NST, however, the prognostic effect of CTCs ≥5 was strong. Decline in CTC count from baseline to three months was associated with improved prognosis in ILC and NST. Conclusions: The number of CTCs is higher in ILC than in NST, implying that a higher CTC cut-off could be considered for ILC when applying the CellSearch technique.

Background: The estrogen receptor (ER) can change expression between primary tumor (PT) and distant metastasis (DM) in breast cancer. A tissue biopsy reflects a momentary state at one location, whereas circulating tumor cells (CTCs) reflect real-time tumor progression. We evaluated ER-status during tumor progression from PT to DM and CTCs, and related the ER-status of CTCs to prognosis. Methods: In a study of metastatic breast cancer, blood was collected at different timepoints. After CellSearch^® enrichment, CTCs were captured on DropMount slides and evaluated for ER expression at baseline (BL) and after 1 and 3 months of therapy. Comparison of the ER-status of PT, DM, and CTCs at different timepoints was performed using the McNemar test. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). Results: Evidence of a shift from ER positivity to negativity between PT and DM was demonstrated (p = 0.019). We found strong evidence of similar shifts from PT to CTCs at different timepoints (p < 0.0001). ER-positive CTCs at 1 and 3 months were related to better prognosis. Conclusions: A shift in ER-status from PT to DM/CTCs was demonstrated. ER-positive CTCs during systemic therapy might reflect the retention of a favorable phenotype that still responds to therapy.

Previous studies have shown that high intratumoral stromal content is associated with a worse prognosis in breast cancer, especially in the triple-negative subtype. However, contradictory results have been reported for estrogen-receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancer, indicating that the prognostic role of intratumoral stromal content may be subtype-dependent. In this study, we investigated the importance of intratumoral stromal content for breast cancer-specific mortality (BCM) in a well-defined subgroup (n = 182) of ER+/human-epidermal growth-factor-receptor-2 negative (HER2−) invasive lobular breast cancer (ILC). The intratumoral stromal content was assessed on hematoxylin–eosin-stained whole sections and graded into high stroma (>50%) or low stroma (≤50%). A total of 82 (45%) patients had high-stroma tumors, and 100 (55%) had low-stroma tumors. High-stroma tumors were associated with a lower Nottingham histological grade, low Ki67, and a luminal A-like subtype. After a 10-year follow-up, the patients with high-stroma tumors had a lower BCM (HR: 0.43, 95% CI: 0.21–0.89, p = 0.023) in univariable analysis. Essentially the same effect was found in both the multivariable analysis (10-year follow-up) and univariable analysis (25-year follow-up), but these findings were not strictly significant. In ER+/HER2− ILC, high intratumoral stromal content is an easily assessable histological indicator of a good prognosis.

Prognostic factors in breast cancer are often measured on a continuous scale, but categorized for clinical decision-making. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate if accounting for continuous non-linear effects of the three factors age at diagnosis, tumor size, and number of positive lymph nodes improves prognostication. These factors will most likely be included in the management of breast cancer patients also in the future, after an expected implementation of gene expression profiling for adjuvant treatment decision-making. Four thousand four hundred forty seven and 1132 women with primary breast cancer constituted the derivation and validation set, respectively. Potential non-linear effects on the log hazard of distant recurrences of the three factors were evaluated during 10 years of follow-up. Cox-models of successively increasing complexity: dichotomized predictors, predictors categorized into three or four groups, and predictors transformed using fractional polynomials (FPs) or restricted cubic splines (RCS), were used. Predictive performance was evaluated by Harrell’s C-index. Using FP-transformations, non-linear effects were detected for tumor size and number of positive lymph nodes in univariable analyses. For age, non-linear transformations did, however, not improve the model fit significantly compared to the linear identity transformation. As expected, the C-index increased with increasing model complexity for multivariable models including the three factors. By allowing more than one cut-point per factor, the C-index increased from 0.628 to 0.674. The additional gain, as measured by the C-index, when using FP- or RCS-transformations was modest (0.695 and 0.696, respectively). The corresponding C-indices for these four models in the validation set, based on the same transformations and parameter estimates from the derivation set, were 0.675, 0.700, 0.706, and 0.701. Categorization of each factor into three to four groups was found to improve prognostication compared to dichotomization. The additional gain by allowing continuous non-linear effects modeled by FPs or RCS was modest. However, the continuous nature of these transformations has the advantage of making it possible to form risk groups of any size.