We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations.

Models of soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and turnover can be useful tools to analyse the effects of soil and crop management practices and climate change on soil organic carbon stocks. The aggregated structure of soil is known to protect SOC from decomposition and, thus, influence the potential for long-term sequestration. In turn, the turnover and storage of SOC affects soil aggregation, physical and hydraulic properties and the productive capacity of soil. These two-way interactions have not yet been explicitly considered in modelling approaches. In this study, we present and describe a new model of the dynamic feedbacks between soil organic matter (SOM) storage and soil physical properties (porosity, pore size distribution, bulk density and layer thickness). A sensitivity analysis was first performed to understand the behaviour of the model. The identifiability of model parameters was then investigated by calibrating the model against a synthetic data set. This analysis revealed that it would not be possible to unequivocally estimate all of the model parameters from the kind of data usually available in field trials. Based on this information, the model was tested against measurements of bulk density, SOC concentration and limited data on soil water retention and soil surface elevation made during 63 years in a field trial located near Uppsala (Sweden) in three treatments with different organic matter (OM) inputs (bare fallow, animal and green manure). The model was able to accurately reproduce the changes in SOC, soil bulk density and surface elevation observed in the field as well as soil water retention curves measured at the end of the experimental period in 2019 in two of the treatments. Treatment-specific variations in SOC dynamics caused by differences in OM input quality could be simulated very well by modifying the value for the OM retention coefficient ε (0.37 for animal manure and 0.14 for green manure). The model approach presented here may prove useful for management purposes, for example, in an analysis of carbon sequestration or soil degradation under land use and climate change.

This paper deals with the simulation of microbial degradation of organic matter in soil within the pore space at a microscopic scale. Pore space was analysed with micro-computed tomography and described using a sphere network coming from a geometrical modelling algorithm. The biological model was improved regarding previous work in order to include the transformation of dissolved organic compounds and diffusion processes. We tested our model using experimental results of a simple substrate decomposition experiment (fructose) within a simple medium (sand) in the presence of different bacterial strains. Separate incubations were carried out in microcosms using five different bacterial communities at two different water potentials of −10 and −100 cm of water. We calibrated the biological parameters by means of experimental data obtained at high water content, and we tested the model without changing any parameters at low water content. Same as for the experimental data, our simulation results showed that the decrease in water content caused a decrease of mineralization rate. The model was able to simulate the decrease of connectivity between substrate and microorganism due the decrease of water content.