As the range of decisions made by Artificial Intelligence (AI) expands, the need for Explainable AI (XAI) becomes increasingly critical. The reasoning behind the specific outcomes of complex and opaque financial models requires a thorough justification to improve risk assessment, minimise the loss of trust, and promote a more resilient and trustworthy financial ecosystem. This Systematic Literature Review (SLR) identifies 138 relevant articles from 2005 to 2022 and highlights empirical examples demonstrating XAI's potential benefits in the financial industry. We classified the articles according to the financial tasks addressed by AI using XAI, the variation in XAI methods between applications and tasks, and the development and application of new XAI methods. The most popular financial tasks addressed by the AI using XAI were credit management, stock price predictions, and fraud detection. The three most commonly employed AI black-box techniques in finance whose explainability was evaluated were Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Random Forest. Most of the examined publications utilise feature importance, Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), and rule-based methods. In addition, they employ explainability frameworks that integrate multiple XAI techniques. We also concisely define the existing challenges, requirements, and unresolved issues in applying XAI in the financial sector.
10 March 2022 in Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence
The influence of Artificial Intelligence is growing, as is the need to make it as explainable as possible. Explainability is one of the main obstacles that AI faces today on the way to more practical implementation. In practise, companies need to use models that balance interpretability and accuracy to make more effective decisions, especially in the field of finance. The main advantages of the multi-criteria decision-making principle (MCDM) in financial decision-making are the ability to structure complex evaluation tasks that allow for well-founded financial decisions, the application of quantitative and qualitative criteria in the analysis process, the possibility of transparency of evaluation and the introduction of improved, universal and practical academic methods to the financial decision-making process. This article presents a review and classification of multi-criteria decision-making methods that help to achieve the goal of forthcoming research: to create artificial intelligence-based methods that are explainable, transparent, and interpretable for most investment decision-makers.
The evolving crypto-currency market is seen as dynamic, segmented, and inefficient, coupled with a lack of regulatory oversight, which together becomes conducive to observing the arbitrage. In this context, a crypto-network is designed using bid/ask data among 20 crypto-exchanges over a 2-year period. The graph theory technique is employed to describe the network and, more importantly, to determine the key roles of crypto-exchanges in generating arbitrage opportunities by estimating relevant network centrality measures. Based on the proposed arbitrage ratio, Gatecoin, Coinfloor, and Bitsane are estimated as the best exchanges to initiate arbitrage, while EXMO and DSX are the best places to close it. Furthermore, by means of canonical correlation analysis, we revealed that higher volatility and the decreasing price of dominating crypto-currencies and CRIX index signal bring about a more likely arbitrage appearance in the market. The findings of research include pre-tax and after-tax arbitrage opportunities.
1 January 2017 in Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja
The introduction of a private pension funds in conjunction with the public social security system is the essence of pension system reform that was implemented in Lithuania. The performance of private funds is mainly presented by fund’s net asset value and few classical risk estimates. Such evaluation shows the management company’s ability to profitably invest funds, but does not give the evidential risk–return evaluation. This paper refers to the overall statistical analysis of 26 private pension funds over a certain time period. The objective of the research is to determine the risk–return profile of pension funds and to answer the question whether the categories specified based on investment strategy in equities reflect fund’s empirical behaviour. Research methodology includes the statistical analysis, risk measuring, performance ratio estimation, and K-means clustering. The conclusions obtained by the research allow determining whether the distinct pension funds have beaten a low risk reference and are adequately assigned to a certain risk category.
This paper focuses on the performance of Lithuanian life-cycle second-pillar pension funds. Every such fund first specifies its benchmark and then attempts to follow the benchmark in some way. This is a form of regulation, meaning that every such fund is somehow regulated and controlled by the central bank authorities. The goal of this paper is twofold: (i) to analyse the returns of the pension funds with respect to their benchmarks and (ii) to determine whether less strict regulation leads to a better outperformance of the fund with respect to the benchmark. In order to achieve this, we introduced a new performance measure called the dominance-tracking index, which combines the ideas of almost stochastic dominance relations and tracking errors. While the tracking error and its modifications measure the strength of the regulation, almost stochastic dominance provides information about preferences between the funds and their benchmarks. Therefore, the new index was constructed in such a way as to take into account both approaches. The empirical section of the study then presents the results separately for the considered pension managers and participants’ age groups as usual in the life-cycle pension funds analysis. Finally, by taking into account various periods, we studied the effects of the COVID-19 crisis.