Leaves from three species of Eucalyptus were combusted in a mass-loss calorimeter to characterise the effect of fuel moisture on energy release and combustion products for this genus. Increasing moisture content reduced peak heat release and the effective heat of combustion in a negative exponential pattern while simultaneously increasing time-to-ignition. Estimates of the probability of ignition, based upon time-to-ignition data, indicated that the critical fuel moisture content for a 50% probability of ignition ranged from 81 to 89% on a dry-weight basis. The modified combustion efficiency of leaves (the ratio of CO2 concentration to the sum of the CO2 and CO concentrations) decreased exponentially as fuel moisture increased. This was because CO2 concentrations during combustion declined exponentially while CO concentrations increased exponentially. However, CO2 mixing ratios were always greater by at least one order of magnitude. Emission factors for CO2 declined exponentially with increasing fuel moisture content while CO emission factors increased exponentially to a maximum. The emission factors for volatile organic compounds increased in a pattern similar to that for CO with increasing fuel moisture content. The empirical relationships identified in this study have implications for fire-behaviour modelling and assessing the effect of fire on air quality and climate.

We estimated emissions of carbon, as equivalent CO₂ (CO₂e), from planned fires in four sites in a south-eastern Australian forest. Emission estimates were calculated using measurements of fuel load and carbon content of different fuel types, before and after burning, and determination of fuel-specific emission factors. Median estimates of emissions for the four sites ranged from 20 to 139 Mg CO₂e ha⁻¹. Variability in estimates was a consequence of different burning efficiencies of each fuel type from the four sites. Higher emissions resulted from more fine fuel (twigs, decomposing matter, near-surface live and leaf litter) or coarse woody debris (CWD; > 25 mm diameter) being consumed. In order to assess the effect of declining information quantity and the inclusion of coarse woody debris when estimating emissions, Monte Carlo simulations were used to create seven scenarios where input parameters values were replaced by probability density functions. Calculation methods were (1) all measured data were constrained between measured maximum and minimum values for each variable; (2) as in (1) except the proportion of carbon within a fuel type was constrained between 0 and 1; (3) as in (2) but losses of mass caused by fire were replaced with burning efficiency factors constrained between 0 and 1; and (4) emissions were calculated using default values in the Australian National Greenhouse Accounts (NGA), National Inventory Report 2011, as appropriate for our sites. Effects of including CWD in calculations were assessed for calculation Method 1, 2 and 3 but not for Method 4 as the NGA does not consider this fuel type. Simulations demonstrate that the probability of estimating true median emissions declines strongly as the amount of information available declines. Including CWD in scenarios increased uncertainty in calculations because CWD is the most variable contributor to fuel load. Inclusion of CWD in scenarios generally increased the amount of carbon lost. We discuss implications of these simulations and how emissions from prescribed burns in temperate Australian forests could be improved.

Predicting future air quality in Australian cities dominated by eucalypt emissions requires an understanding of their emission potentials in a warmer climate. Here we measure the temperature response in isoprene emissions from saplings of four different Eucalyptus species grown under current and future average summertime temperature conditions. The future conditions represent a 2050 climate under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, with average daytime temperatures of 294.5 K. Ramping the temperature from 293 to 328 K resulted in these eucalypts emitting isoprene at temperatures 4–9 K higher than the default maximum emission temperature in the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). New basal emission rate measurements were obtained at the standard conditions of 303 K leaf temperature and 1000 µmol m⁻² s⁻¹ photosynthetically active radiation and converted into landscape emission factors. We applied the eucalypt temperature responses and emission factors to Australian trees within MEGAN and ran the CSIRO Chemical Transport Model for three summertime campaigns in Australia. Compared to the default model, the new temperature responses resulted in less isoprene emission in the morning and more during hot afternoons, improving the statistical fit of modelled to observed ambient isoprene. Compared to current conditions, an additional 2 ppb of isoprene is predicted in 2050, causing hourly increases up to 21 ppb of ozone and 24-hourly increases of 0.4 µg m⁻³ of aerosol in Sydney. A 550 ppm CO₂ atmosphere in 2050 mitigates these peak Sydney ozone mixing ratios by 4 ppb. Nevertheless, these forecasted increases in ozone are up to one-fifth of the hourly Australian air quality limit, suggesting that anthropogenic NO_x should be further reduced to maintain healthy air quality in future.