Enric Aguilar

Dr. Enric Aguilar

orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

25Years (2002-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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15 March 2006 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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LAL. V. Alexander
L. V. Alexander
XZX. Zhang
X. Zhang
TPT. C. Peterson
T. C. Peterson
JCJ. Caesar
J. Caesar
BGB. Gleason
B. Gleason
JVJ. L. Vazquez‐Aguirre
J. L. Vazquez‐Aguirre
A suite of climate change indices derived from daily temperature and precipitation data, with a primary focus on extreme events, were computed and analyzed. By setting an exact formula for each index and using specially designed software, analyses done in different countries have been combined seamlessly. This has enabled the presentation of the most up‐to‐date and comprehensive global picture of trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices using results from a number of workshops held in data‐sparse regions and high‐quality station data supplied by numerous scientists world wide. Seasonal and annual indices for the period 1951–2003 were gridded. Trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes associated with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature. Over 70% of the global land area sampled showed a significant decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a significant increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights. Some regions experienced a more than doubling of these indices. This implies a positive shift in the distribution of daily minimum temperature throughout the globe. Daily maximum temperature indices showed similar changes but with smaller magnitudes. Precipitation changes showed a widespread and significant increase, but the changes are much less spatially coherent compared with temperature change. Probability distributions of indices derived from approximately 200 temperature and 600 precipitation stations, with near‐complete data for 1901–2003 and covering a very large region of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (and parts of Australia for precipitation) were analyzed for the periods 1901–1950, 1951–1978 and 1979–2003. Results indicate a significant warming throughout the 20th century. Differences in temperature indices distributions are particularly pronounced between the most recent two periods and for those indices related to minimum temperature. An analysis of those indices for which seasonal time series are available shows that these changes occur for all seasons although they are generally least pronounced for September to November. Precipitation indices show a tendency toward wetter conditions throughout the 20th century.

23 January 2013 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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Markus DonatMarkus Donat
Markus Donat
LAL. V. Alexander
L. V. Alexander
HYH. Yang
H. Yang
IDI. Durre
I. Durre
RVR. Vose
R. Vose
SKS. Kitching
S. Kitching
In this study, we present the collation and analysis of the gridded land‐based dataset of indices of temperature and precipitation extremes: HadEX2. Indices were calculated based on station data using a consistent approach recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, resulting in the production of 17 temperature and 12 precipitation indices derived from daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation observations. High‐quality in situ observations from over 7000 temperature and 11,000 precipitation meteorological stations across the globe were obtained to calculate the indices over the period of record available for each station. Monthly and annual indices were then interpolated onto a 3.75° × 2.5° longitude‐latitude grid over the period 1901–2010. Linear trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Overall there was very good agreement with the previous HadEX dataset during the overlapping data period. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes consistent with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature over the whole 110 years of record but with stronger trends in more recent decades. Seasonal results showed significant warming in all seasons but more so in the colder months. Precipitation indices also showed widespread and significant trends, but the changes were much more spatially heterogeneous compared with temperature changes. However, results indicated more areas with significant increasing trends in extreme precipitation amounts, intensity, and frequency than areas with decreasing trends.

7 January 2010 in Climate Dynamics
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Journal Article
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QYQinglong You
Qinglong You
SKShichang Kang
Shichang Kang
EAEnric Aguilar
Enric Aguilar
NPNick Pepin
Nick Pepin
WFWolfgang-Albert Flügel
Wolfgang-Albert Flügel
JHJie Huang
Jie Huang

6 December 2005 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
EAEnric Aguilar
Enric Aguilar
TPT. C. Peterson
T. C. Peterson
POP. Ramírez Obando
P. Ramírez Obando
RFR. Frutos
R. Frutos
JRJ. A. Retana
J. A. Retana
RMR. Mayorga
R. Mayorga
In November 2004, a regional climate change workshop was held in Guatemala with the goal of analyzing how climate extremes had changed in the region. Scientists from Central America and northern South America brought long‐term daily temperature and precipitation time series from meteorological stations in their countries to the workshop. After undergoing careful quality control procedures and a homogeneity assessment, the data were used to calculate a suite of climate change indices over the 1961–2003 period. Analysis of these indices reveals a general warming trend in the region. The occurrence of extreme warm maximum and minimum temperatures has increased while extremely cold temperature events have decreased. Precipitation indices, despite the large and expected spatial variability, indicate that although no significant increases in the total amount are found, rainfall events are intensifying and the contribution of wet and very wet days are enlarging. Temperature and precipitation indices were correlated with northern and equatorial Atlantic and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. However, those indices having the largest significant trends (percentage of warm days, precipitation intensity, and contribution from very wet days) have low correlations to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Additionally, precipitation indices show a higher correlation with tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

24 November 2005 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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XZXuebin Zhang
Xuebin Zhang
EAEnric Aguilar
Enric Aguilar
SSSerhat Sensoy
Serhat Sensoy
HMHamlet Melkonyan
Hamlet Melkonyan
UTUmayra Tagiyeva
Umayra Tagiyeva
TWTrevor Wallis
Trevor Wallis
A climate change workshop for the Middle East brought together scientists and data for the region to produce the first area‐wide analysis of climate extremes for the region. This paper reports trends in extreme precipitation and temperature indices that were computed during the workshop and additional indices data that became available after the workshop. Trends in these indices were examined for 1950–2003 at 52 stations covering 15 countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey. Results indicate that there have been statistically significant, spatially coherent trends in temperature indices that are related to temperature increases in the region. Significant, increasing trends have been found in the annual maximum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the annual minimum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the number of summer nights, and the number of days where daily temperature has exceeded its 90th percentile. Significant negative trends have been found in the number of days when daily temperature is below its 10th percentile and daily temperature range. Trends in precipitation indices, including the number of days with precipitation, the average precipitation intensity, and maximum daily precipitation events, are weak in general and do not show spatial coherence. The workshop attendees have generously made the indices data available for the international research community.

10 January 2012 in Climate of the Past
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VVV. K. C. Venema
V. K. C. Venema
OMO. Mestre
O. Mestre
EAEnric Aguilar
Enric Aguilar
IAI. Auer
I. Auer
JGJ. A. Guijarro
J. A. Guijarro
TBT. Brandsma
T. Brandsma
The COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) Action ES0601: advances in homogenization methods of climate series: an integrated approach (HOME) has executed a blind intercomparison and validation study for monthly homogenization algorithms. Time series of monthly temperature and precipitation were evaluated because of their importance for climate studies and because they represent two important types of statistics (additive and multiplicative). The algorithms were validated against a realistic benchmark dataset. The benchmark contains real inhomogeneous data as well as simulated data with inserted inhomogeneities. Random independent break-type inhomogeneities with normally distributed breakpoint sizes were added to the simulated datasets. To approximate real world conditions, breaks were introduced that occur simultaneously in multiple station series within a simulated network of station data. The simulated time series also contained outliers, missing data periods and local station trends. Further, a stochastic nonlinear global (network-wide) trend was added. Participants provided 25 separate homogenized contributions as part of the blind study. After the deadline at which details of the imposed inhomogeneities were revealed, 22 additional solutions were submitted. These homogenized datasets were assessed by a number of performance metrics including (i) the centered root mean square error relative to the true homogeneous value at various averaging scales, (ii) the error in linear trend estimates and (iii) traditional contingency skill scores. The metrics were computed both using the individual station series as well as the network average regional series. The performance of the contributions depends significantly on the error metric considered. Contingency scores by themselves are not very informative. Although relative homogenization algorithms typically improve the homogeneity of temperature data, only the best ones improve precipitation data. Training the users on homogenization software was found to be very important. Moreover, state-of-the-art relative homogenization algorithms developed to work with an inhomogeneous reference are shown to perform best. The study showed that automatic algorithms can perform as well as manual ones.