This article presents a discussion about the issue of soil resource management in the context of sustainable development. These resources are one of the basic resources on Earth, conditioning the sustainable development of present and future generations by providing the capacity for food production. The study contains an indicator-based assessment of changes in available soil resources as a result of progressive urbanization processes in the suburban area of a big city. The case study was the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone in Poland. The applied methodology allowed for the valorization of urban sprawl processes on agricultural land. As a result, municipalities were divided into groups that characterize different suburbanization processes and their impact on the available soil resources. By using the proposed approach, it is possible to support the spatial development management process in order to protect the valuable components of the environment. The results of the research show that 29 rural precincts located around Wrocław have a high soil transition index (W≥50), which proves their inefficient agricultural management system on a regional scale. The study is an attempt to answer a question on the practical implementation of sustainable development goals that were included in Agenda 2030.

This article presents selected flow modeling indices of the Bystra River catchment area (east Poland) obtained using the SWAT model simulations for three regional climate models driven by the EC-EARTH global climate model for 2021–2050 and both RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The research area was selected due to the large relief of the terrain, the predominance of soils made of loess and the agricultural nature of the Bystra River catchment area, which is very sensitive to climate change, has very valuable soils, and can be used as a test area for modeling land use-based adaptation measures to climate change. The calibration and validation using the SUFI-2 algorithm in the SWAT CUP program was carried out in order to determine the water balance. After obtaining satisfactory results, the SWAT-CUP program simulated the best parameter values for climate change projections. In analyzed climate projections, the monthly mean sums of actual evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration will be higher compared to the simulation period of the 2010–2017 model. The exception is the month of June, where actual evapotranspiration in most climate projections is lower compared to the years 2010–2017. The average monthly total runoff for the Bystra River basin will be lower in most of the 2021–2030 climate change projections for most months compared to the reference period. Also, in the 2031–2040 and 2041–2050 periods, the average monthly total runoff will be lower for the RCP 4.5 scenarios (except for one RCP 4.5 scenario in 2031–2040). Additionally, in the case of the RCP 8.5 for the two scenarios in 2041–2050, the average monthly total runoff will be higher compared to the reference years. We determine that the analysis impact of climate change will result in 31 recognized and different small sub-catchments of the Bystra River, which result from higher precipitation and less evapotranspiration for RCP 8.5 in 2041–2050. All of the above changes in the individual components of the water balance may have a negative impact on the vegetation in the coming decades. The temperature increase and the variable amount of precipitation in individual months may lead to an increased number of extreme phenomena. Increased mean monthly sum of actual and potential evapotranspiration, as well as changes in monthly sums of total runoff, may disturb the vegetation in the studied area at every stage of growth. The above components may also influence changes in the amount of water in the soil (especially during the growing season). Counteracting the effects of future climate change requires various adaptation measures.

The hydrological assessment of the Vistula River basin in the near future will be a key element in the development of strategies to adapt agriculture to climate change. The Vistula River basin covers 61% of Poland’s area (190,062 km²) and is mainly used for agricultural production. The aim of this study is to assess the water balance of the Vistula River basin from the perspective of 2050 based on the analysis of two climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, and the three climate models ICHEC-EC-EARTH_KNMI-RACMO22E (A), ICHEC-EC-EARTH_DMI-HIRHAM5 (B), and ICHEC-EC-EARTH_SMHI-RCA4 (C). This paper presents the steps in the development of the SWAT model and the results of the hydrological analysis of the Vistula catchment. Calibration and validation of the model were carried out using the SUFI-2 algorithm in the SWAT-CUP programme for 2013–2018. The data used to calibrate the SWAT model are monthly flow measurements [m³/s] from the measurement station in Tczew, located near the estuary of the Vistula basin to the Baltic Sea. The summary result of the work is the results of modelling the flow of the Vistula River catchment for different climate scenarios in the 2020–2050 perspective. The average annual precipitation for all projections in 2021–2030, 2031–2040, and 2041–2050 will be higher by up to 22% (763 mm) (RCP 8.5.C for 2041–2050) compared to the 2013–2018 simulation years (624 mm). The average annual temperature for most climate projections for 2021–2030 will fall to as low as 8.7 °C (RCP 4.5.B) compared to the 2013–2018 simulation period (9.2 °C). In contrast, for all projections in 2031–2040 and 2041–2050, the average annual temperature will increase to as much as 10.3 °C (RCP 8.5.C). The simulation results for the climate projections (2020–2050) indicate that there are no clear trends of change in the water management of the Vistula River basin for the coming decades. According to scenarios RCP 4.5.A, RCP 8.5.A, and RCP 8.5.B, the annual sums of potential evapotranspiration show a slight downward trend. On the other hand, for the RCP 8.5.C and RCP 4.5.C projections and the climate change scenario RCP 4.5.B, the results obtained show a slight upward trend in the annual sum of potential evapotranspiration. For the overall evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration assessment for all climate projections analysed, the annual evapotranspiration total shows a clear increase compared to the 2013–2018 baseline period. The average annual actual evapotranspiration for all projections in 2021–2030, 2031–2040, and 2041–2050 will increase up to 467 mm (RCP 4.5.A—2021–2030) compared to the 2013–2018 simulation period of 401 mm. The average annual potential evapotranspiration for all projections in 2021–2030, 2031–2040, and 2041–2050 will increase up to 755 mm (RCP 8.5.C—2031–2040) compared to the 2013–2018 simulation period—616 mm. The analysis of the total runoff in all climate models for the RCP 4.5 scenario shows that the annual average total runoff tends to decrease. The results of the simulations carried out for the RCP 8.5 scenario, which are generally characterised by an increase in total runoff in subsequent years, are different. When analysing annual total runoff on a regional basis, it appears that for most of the climate projections analysed (except for the RCP 8.5.A scenario), annual runoff will be lower, especially in the lowlands in the central part of the Vistula basin. In regions where the increase in precipitation is greatest in the north-western and southern basins, higher total runoff should be expected. The analysis of the total runoff in all climate models for the RCP 4.5 scenario shows that the annual average total runoff tends to decrease. The results of the simulations carried out for the RCP 8.5 scenario, which are generally characterised by an increase in total runoff in subsequent years, are different. When analysing annual total runoff on a regional basis, it appears that for most of the climate projections analysed (except for the RCP 8.5.A scenario), annual runoff will be lower, especially in the lowlands in the central part of the Vistula basin. In regions where the increase in precipitation is greatest in the north-western and southern basins, higher total runoff should be expected.