Under the auspices of an International Working Group, seven centers submitted diagnostic and follow-up information on 1545 patients with World Health Organization-defined polycythemia vera (PV). At diagnosis, median age was 61 years (51% females); thrombocytosis and venous thrombosis were more frequent in women and arterial thrombosis and abnormal karyotype in men. Considering patients from the center with the most mature follow-up information (n=337 with 44% of patients followed to death), median survival (14.1 years) was significantly worse than that of the age- and sex-matched US population (P<0.001). In multivariable analysis, survival for the entire study cohort (n=1545) was adversely affected by older age, leukocytosis, venous thrombosis and abnormal karyotype; a prognostic model that included the first three parameters delineated risk groups with median survivals of 10.9–27.8 years (hazard ratio (HR), 10.7; 95% confidence interval (CI): 7.7–15.0). Pruritus was identified as a favorable risk factor for survival. Cumulative hazard of leukemic transformation, with death as a competing risk, was 2.3% at 10 years and 5.5% at 15 years; risk factors included older age, abnormal karyotype and leukocytes 15 × 10⁹/l. Leukemic transformation was associated with treatment exposure to pipobroman or P32/chlorambucil. We found no association between leukemic transformation and hydroxyurea or busulfan use.

In an international collaborative study, a central histologic review identified 891 patients with essential thrombocythemia, strictly defined by World Health Organization criteria. After a median follow-up of 6.2 years, 109 (12%) patients experienced arterial (n = 79) or venous (n = 37) thrombosis. In multivariable analysis, predictors of arterial thrombosis included age more than 60 years (P = .03; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.7), thrombosis history (P = .003; HR = 2.1), cardiovascular risk factors including tobacco use, hypertension, or diabetes mellitus (P = .007; HR = 1.9), leukocytosis (> 11 × 10⁹/L; P = .04; HR = 1.7), and presence of JAK2V617F (P = .009; HR = 2.6). In contrast, only male gender predicted venous thrombosis. Platelet count more than 1000 × 10⁹/L was associated with a lower risk of arterial thrombosis (P = .007; HR = 0.4). These associations, except the one with leukocytosis, remained significant (or near significant) when analysis was restricted to JAK2V617F-positive cases. The current study clarifies the contribution of specific disease and host characteristics to the risk of arterial versus venous thrombosis in essential thrombocythemia.

Diagnosis of essential thrombocythemia (ET) has been updated in the last World Health Organization (WHO) classification. We developed a prognostic model to predict survival at diagnosis, named IPSET (International Prognostic Score for ET), studying patients with WHO-defined ET. Age 60 years or older, leukocyte count ≥ 11 × 10⁹/L, and prior thrombosis significantly affected survival, by multivariable Cox regression. On the basis of the hazard ratio, we assigned 2 points to age and 1 each to leukocyte count and thrombosis. So, the IPSET model allocated 867 patients into 3 risk categories with significantly different survival: low (sum of points = 0; median survival not reached), intermediate (sum = 1-2; median survival 24.5 years), and high (sum = 3-4, median survival 13.8 years). The IPSET model was further validated in 2 independent cohorts including 132 WHO-defined ET and 234 Polycythemia Vera Study Group–defined ET patients. The IPSET model was able to predict the occurrence of thrombosis, and not to predict post-ET myelofibrosis. In conclusion, IPSET, based on age ≥ 60 years, leukocyte count ≥ 11 × 10⁹/L, and history of thrombosis allows prognostic assessment of WHO-defined ET and the validation process makes IPSET applicable in all patients phenotypically appearing as ET.

We examined the baseline features and clinical outcomes of 140 patients presenting with JAK2V617F positivity and a bone marrow morphology conforming with WHO criteria of polycythemia vera (PV), but a hemoglobin level of <18.5 g/dL in males (range 16.0–18.4) and 65 years and leukocyte count >10 × 10⁹/L. Our data suggest that mPV is a heterogeneous myeloproliferative neoplasia and not necessarily an early/ pre‐polycythemic form of classical PV that at onset in a small fraction of patients clinically may mimic essential thrombocythemia. On the other hand, the majority mPV may have a longer prodrome of undiagnosed PV or a disease biology akin to primary myelofibrosis‐post PV myelofibrosis that could explain the worsening of outcome in comparison to overt/classical manifestations. Am. J. Hematol. 89:52–54, 2014.