There is an urgent societal need to assess whether autonomous vehicles (AVs) are safe enough. From published quantitative safety and reliability assessments of AVs, we know that, given the goal of predicting very low rates of accidents, road testing alone requires infeasible numbers of miles to be driven. However, previous analyses do not consider any knowledge prior to road testing – knowledge which could bring substantial advantages if the AV design allows strong expectations of safety before road testing. We present the advantages of a new variant of Conservative Bayesian Inference (CBI), which uses prior knowledge while avoiding optimistic biases. We then study the trend of disengagements (take-overs by human drivers) by applying Software Reliability Growth Models (SRGMs) to data from Waymo's public road testing over 51 months, in view of the practice of software updates during this testing. Our approach is to not trust any specific SRGM, but to assess forecast accuracy and then improve forecasts. We show that, coupled with accuracy assessment and recalibration techniques, SRGMs could be a valuable test planning aid.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been applied to a broad range of applications, including natural language processing, drug discovery, and video recognition. Their vulnerability to input perturbation is also known. Aligning with a view from software defect detection, this article aims to develop a coverage-guided testing approach to systematically exploit the internal behavior of RNNs, with the expectation that such testing can detect defects with high possibility. Technically, the long short-term memory network (LSTM), a major class of RNNs, is thoroughly studied. A family of three test metrics are designed to quantify not only the values but also the temporal relations (including both stepwise and bounded-length) exhibited when LSTM processing inputs. A genetic algorithm is applied to efficiently generate test cases. The test metrics and test case generation algorithm are implemented into a tool testRNN , which is then evaluated on a set of LSTM benchmarks. Experiments confirm that testRNN has advantages over the state-of-the-art tool DeepStellar and attack-based defect detection methods, owing to its working with finer temporal semantics and the consideration of the naturalness of input perturbation. Furthermore, testRNN enables meaningful information to be collected and exhibited for users to understand the testing results, which is an important step toward interpretable neural network testing.

The increasing use of Machine Learning (ML) components embedded in autonomous systems—so-called Learning-Enabled Systems (LESs)—has resulted in the pressing need to assure their functional safety. As for traditional functional safety, the emerging consensus within both, industry and academia, is to use assurance cases for this purpose. Typically assurance cases support claims of reliability in support of safety, and can be viewed as a structured way of organising arguments and evidence generated from safety analysis and reliability modelling activities. While such assurance activities are traditionally guided by consensus-based standards developed from vast engineering experience, LESs pose new challenges in safety-critical application due to the characteristics and design of ML models. In this article, we first present an overall assurance framework for LESs with an emphasis on quantitative aspects, e.g., breaking down system-level safety targets to component-level requirements and supporting claims stated in reliability metrics. We then introduce a novel model-agnostic Reliability Assessment Model (RAM) for ML classifiers that utilises the operational profile and robustness verification evidence. We discuss the model assumptions and the inherent challenges of assessing ML reliability uncovered by our RAM and propose solutions to practical use. Probabilistic safety argument templates at the lower ML component-level are also developed based on the RAM. Finally, to evaluate and demonstrate our methods, we not only conduct experiments on synthetic/benchmark datasets but also scope our methods with case studies on simulated Autonomous Underwater Vehicles and physical Unmanned Ground Vehicles.