The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of uncertainty shocks on airline employment in the light of the current global pandemic. The airline industry has faced many threats throughout history, but none quite as rapid and severe as the one posed by the spread of COVID-19. One constant during uncertainty shocks and industry downturns is that airline labor bears the brunt of the decline. As the industry reduces capacity amid the increase in travel restrictions, the post-stimulus impacts to airline labor are not known. Using time series analysis, the dynamics of historical uncertainty shocks to the industry are examined. During periods of uncertainty shocks, the estimated job loss is nearly 7% of the airline workforce with an upper bound of over 13%. Major airline employment is most impacted, while low-cost and regional airline employment is least impacted. The hardest hit employees are ones related to passenger handling and flight operations, while management employees fair slightly better during these uncertain periods. Further, recovery following uncertainty shocks is estimated to take between 4 and 6 years. Overall, the labor impacts to the airline industry from uncertainty events are substantial and provide insight into the expected industry job loss from COVID-19.

This paper presents an analysis of the effects of jet fuel taxes on air traffic, employment and emissions using a difference-in-difference design. These findings are relevant, as US airports identify how to respond to revenue shortfalls and support local employment in the recovery after Covid-19. Jet fuel tax cuts are considered pro-growth by airlines and stakeholders, however, limited research documents the impacts on airline operations, employment, and emissions, which is an increasing issue given growing societal concerns about aviation sustainability. This study provides an analysis of the effects of changes in jet fuel taxes on air travel, employment, and the environment, using a difference-in-differences design based on data from major US airlines at several US hubs. Results suggest that a jet fuel tax cut increases air traffic by 0.2% on average but fades within a year. The direct effect on air transportation employment is insignificant, as is the effect on total employment. The estimated effect on pollution is an increase of over 1% in CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions. These findings illustrate the precarious balance between air transport growth, local employment, and environmental concerns, and may aid policymakers as they consider potential changes to jet fuel taxes.