Fall armyworm is recognized as one of most highly destructive global agricultural pests. In January 2020, it had first invaded Australia, posing a significant risk to its biosecurity, food security, and agricultural productivity. In this study, the migration paths and wind systems for the case of fall armyworm invading Australia were analyzed using a three-dimensional trajectory simulation approach, combined with its flight behavior and NCEP meteorological reanalysis data. The analysis showed that fall armyworm in Torres Strait most likely came from surrounding islands of central Indonesia on two occasions via wind migration. Specifically, fall armyworm moths detected on Saibai and Erub Islands might have arrived from southern Sulawesi Island, Indonesia, between January 15 and 16. The fall armyworm in Bamaga most likely arrived from the islands around Arafura Sea and Sulawesi Island of Indonesia, between January 26 and 27. The high risk period for the invasion of fall armyworm is only likely to have occurred in January–February due to monsoon winds, which were conducive to flight across the Timor Sea towards Australia. This case study is the first to confirm the immigration paths and timing of fall armyworm from Indonesia to Australia via its surrounding islands.

The tomato potato psyllid (TPP), Bactericera cockerelli, is a psyllid native to North America that has recently invaded New Zealand and Australia. The potential for economic losses accompanying invasions of TPP and its associated bacterial plant pathogen Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum (CLso), has caused much concern. Here, we employed ecological niche models to predict environments suitable for TPP/CLso on a global scale and then evaluated the extent to which global potato cultivation is at risk. In addition, at a finer scale the risk to the Australian potato acreage was evaluated. A total of 86 MaxEnt models were built using various combinations of settings and climatic predictors, and the best model based on model evaluation metrics was selected. Climatically suitable habitats were identified in Eurasia, Africa, South America, and Australasia. Intersecting the predicted suitability map with land use data showed that 79.06% of the global potato cultivation acreage, 96.14% of the potato production acreage in South America and Eurasia, and all the Australian potato cropping areas are at risk. The information generated by this study increases knowledge of the ecology of TPP/CLso and can be used by government agencies to make decisions about preventing the spread of TPP and CLso across the globe.