It is widely recognized that we are entering an extinction event on a scale approaching the mass extinctions seen in the fossil record. Present-day rates of extinction are estimated to be several orders of magnitude greater than background rates and are projected to increase further if current trends continue. In vertebrates, species traits, such as body size, fecundity, and geographic range, are important predictors of vulnerability. Although plants are the basis for life on Earth, our knowledge of plant extinctions and vulnerabilities is lagging. Here, we disentangle the underlying drivers of extinction risk in plants, focusing on the Cape of South Africa, a global biodiversity hotspot. By comparing Red List data for the British and South African floras, we demonstrate that the taxonomic distribution of extinction risk differs significantly between regions, inconsistent with a simple, trait-based model of extinction. Using a comprehensive phylogenetic tree for the Cape, we reveal a phylogenetic signal in the distribution of plant extinction risks but show that the most threatened species cluster within short branches at the tips of the phylogeny—opposite to trends in mammals. From analyzing the distribution of threatened species across 11 exemplar clades, we suggest that mode of speciation best explains the unusual phylogenetic structure of extinction risks in plants of the Cape. Our results demonstrate that explanations for elevated extinction risk in plants of the Cape flora differ dramatically from those recognized for vertebrates. In the Cape, extinction risk is higher for young and fast-evolving plant lineages and cannot be explained by correlations with simple biological traits. Critically, we find that the most vulnerable plant species are nonetheless marching towards extinction at a more rapid pace but, surprisingly, independently from anthropogenic effects. Our results have important implications for conservation priorities and cast doubts on the utility of current Red List criteria for plants in regions such as the Cape, where speciation has been rapid, if our aim is to maximize the preservation of the tree-of-life. The rapid loss of biodiversity is the most significant ecological challenge we face today. Over the past few years, the International Union for Conservation of Nature has published Red Lists documenting the inexorable slide towards extinction of species; recent losses include the Hawaiian crow, golden toad, Baiji dolphin, and the West African black rhino. In groups we know well, such as mammals, the risk of extinction has been related to biology, with the most vulnerable species tending to be large, slow breeding, and narrowly distributed. Although plants are the basis for life on Earth, our knowledge of the drivers of plant extinctions is poor. Here, we disentangle the causes of plant extinctions. We show that the processes linked with extinction risks in plants of the Cape, South Africa differ from those for vertebrates more generally. The most vulnerable species are found within young and fast-evolving plant lineages, opposite to patterns in vertebrates. Our results illustrate the intricate link between the processes of speciation and extinction. We also show that the most threatened species are marching towards extinction at faster rates, but surprisingly, the risk appears independent of human effects.

The disproportionate species richness of the world’s biodiversity hotspots could be explained by low extinction (the evolutionary “museum”) and/or high speciation (the “hot-bed”) models. We test these models using the largest of the species rich plant groups that characterise the botanically diverse Cape Floristic Region (CFR): the genus Erica L. We generate a novel phylogenetic hypothesis informed by nuclear and plastid DNA sequences of c. 60 % of the c. 800 Erica species (of which 690 are endemic to the CFR), and use this to estimate clade ages (using RELTIME; BEAST), net diversification rates (GEIGER), and shifts in rates of diversification in different areas (BAMM; MuSSE). The diversity of Erica species in the CFR is the result of a single radiation within the last c. 15 million years. Compared to ancestral lineages in the Palearctic, the rate of speciation accelerated across Africa and Madagascar, with a further burst of speciation within the CFR that also exceeds the net diversification rates of other Cape clades. Erica exemplifies the “hotbed” model of assemblage through recent speciation, implying that with the advent of the modern Cape a multitude of new niches opened and were successively occupied through local species diversification.

The build-up of biodiversity is the result of immigration andin situspeciation. We investigate these two processes for four lineages (Disa, Irideae p.p., thePentaschistisclade and Restionaceae) that are widespread in the Afrotemperate flora. These four lineages may be representative of the numerous clades which are species rich in the Cape and also occur in the highlands of tropical Africa. It is as yet unclear in which direction the lineages spread. Three hypotheses have been proposed: (i) a tropical origin with a southward migration towards the Cape, (ii) a Cape origin with a northward migration into tropical Africa, and (iii) vicariance. None of these hypotheses has been thoroughly tested. We reconstruct the historical biogeography of the four lineages using likelihood optimization onto molecular phylogenies. We find that tropical taxa are nested within a predominantly Cape clade. There is unidirectional migration from the Cape into the Drakensberg and from there northwards into tropical Africa. The amount ofin situdiversification differs between areas and clades. Dating estimates show that the migration into tropical East Africa has occurred in the last 17 Myr, consistent with the Mio-Pliocene formation of the mountains in this area.