Tree improvement programs can improve forest management by increasing timber yields in some areas, thereby facilitating conservation of other forest lands. In this study, we used a meta-analytic approach to quantify yields of alternative white (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) and hybrid spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelmann x Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) stocks across planting sites in the boreal and hemiboreal forests of Canada. We extracted meta-data from published tree improvement program results for five Canadian provinces covering 38 planting sites and 330 white and hybrid spruce provenances. Using these meta-data and a random-coefficients nonlinear mixed-effects modelling approach, we modelled average height over time trajectories for varying planting site characteristics, as well as climate transfer distances between planting sites and provenances. Climatic transfer distances had strong effects on the height trajectory parameters. In particular, the asymptote parameter had a nonlinear increasing trend with planting site versus provenance mean annual temperature differences. We incorporated the height trajectory meta-analysis model into an existing growth and yield model to predict volume yields. Overall, this research provides a mechanism to quantify yields of alternative provenances at a particular planting site, as a component of decision support models for evaluating evaluate forest management investment into improved planting stocks alternatives under current and possible future climates.

In veneer-drying facilities, controllers face many challenges to maintain desired parameters in the final product based on customer’s needs. The major challenge is setting process parameters to control the temperature and humidity within the various sections in the drying machine to obtain the desired properties of the final product. The regression tree approach can be used to simplify the complex relationship among process and product variables for identifying critical factors for drying veneer and achieving the desired range of veneer temperature. In this study, we investigated veneer-drying conditions and the short-term effect of climatic variables on veneer temperature. We have shown a three-step process to develop an optimal regression tree for veneer temperature. From the developed optimal tree, we are able to identify the most important threshold points of predictor space and adjustment for the climatic variables on the temperature of veneer sheets. The findings of this study were further investigated in an industrial setting and the desired veneer temperatures were attained for the final product. This application shows that we can follow the path of the optimal tree to pinpoint the most desired veneer temperature outcome. The developed optimal tree is relatively easy to use and interpret to estimate the average response of veneer temperature.

Nonlinear mixed-effects models (NLMMs) provide a flexible framework for modeling repeated-measures trajectories. However, how best to forecast future observations, especially at ages well beyond those represented in the data, remains relatively underexamined. In this study, we develop a Chapman–Richards NLMM with a spatial-power autocorrelation structure for irregularly spaced repeated measures and compare three forecasting strategies: (i) population-averaged forecasts based on the fixed-effects component only; (ii) subject-specific forecasts in which empirical best linear unbiased predictors (EBLUPs) of the random effects are obtained via a first-order Taylor series expansion with an iterative Newton–Raphson update, including the case of new progenies not used in model fitting; and (iii) forecasts that combine the population-averaged prediction with prior repeated measures through the fitted autocorrelation matrix. Forecast accuracy was assessed with progeny-level validation under fully held-out and partially observed scenarios, using root mean square prediction error (RMSPE) and mean absolute error (MAE), and was examined as a function of: (i) the number of available prior measures and (ii) the accuracy of the fixed-effects component of the NLMM. The methods were illustrated with repeated-measures data from hybrid spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelmann × Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) progeny trials at three planting sites in British Columbia, Canada, with measurement ages from 2 to 42 years. Subject-specific forecasts had the lowest prediction errors when sufficient prior measures were available and were also the least affected by misspecification of the fixed-effects component. With only two prior measurements, autocorrelation-based forecasts had the lowest or tied-lowest observed errors, although differences among the three approaches were small. Using all measurements taken before age 42, subject-specific forecasts of height at age 42 achieved an RMSPE of 0.50 m. With only two prior measurements, the corresponding RMSPEs were approximately 1.31–1.33 m across the forecasting approaches. Although demonstrated with a single hybrid spruce dataset from three planting sites, the comparison is, in principle, applicable to other repeated-measures settings in which long-horizon predictions are required from short observation histories; broader applicability remains to be confirmed.

We assessed the impacts of tree improvement programs on the associated gains in yield of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) and hybrid spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelmann x Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) over long temporal and large spatial extents. The definition of gain varied in the tree improvement programs. We assessed the definition of gain using a sensitivity analysis, altering the evaluation age with the definitions of the baseline and top performers. We used meta-data from provenance trials extracted from the literature to model the yields of provenances relative to those of standard stocks. Using a previously developed meta-model and a chosen gain definition, a meta-dataset of the gain of plantation ages was developed. Using this gain meta-dataset, a gain trajectory model was fitted for white and hybrid spruce provenances across Canadian boreal and hemiboreal forests. The planting site, mean annual daily temperature, mean annual precipitation, and number of degree days > 5 °C had large impacts on gain. This model can be used to predict gain up to harvest age at any planting site in the boreal and hemiboreal forests of Canada. Further, these gain trajectories could be averaged over a region to indicate the yield potential of tree improvement programs.