The value of investments in renewable energy (RE) technologies has increased rapidly over the last decade as a result of political pressures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and the policy incentives to increase the share of RE in the energy mix. As the number of RE investments increases, so does the need to measure the associated risks throughout planning, constructing and operating these technologies. This paper provides a state-of-the-art literature review of the quantitative and semi-quantitative methods that have been used to model risks and uncertainties in sustainable energy system planning and feasibility studies, including the derivation of optimal energy technology portfolios. The review finds that in quantitative methods, risks are mainly measured by means of the variance or probability density distributions of technical and economical parameters; while semi-quantitative methods such as scenario analysis and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can also address non-statistical parameters such as socio-economic factors (e.g. macro-economic trends, lack of public acceptance). Finally, untapped issues recognised in recent research approaches are discussed along with suggestions for future research

Purpose Life cycle cost (LCC) considerations are of increasing importance to offshore wind farm operators and their insurers to undertake long-term profitable investments and to make electricity generation more price-competitive. This paper presents a cost breakdown structure (CBS) and develops a whole life cost (WLC) analysis framework for offshore wind farms throughout their life span (∼25 years). Methods A combined multivariate regression/neural network approach is developed to identify key cost drivers and evaluate all the costs associated with five phases of offshore wind projects, namely pre-development and consenting (P&C), production and acquisition (P&A), installation and commissioning (I&C), operation and maintenance (O&M) and decommissioning and disposal (D&D). Several critical factors such as geographical location and meteorological conditions, rated power and capacity factor of wind turbines, reliability of sub-systems and availability and accessibility of transportation means are taken into account in cost calculations. The O&M costs (including the cost of renewal and replacement, cost of lost production, cost of skilled maintenance labour and logistics cost) are assessed using the data available in failure databases (e.g. fault logs and O&M reports) and the data supplied by inspection agencies. A net present value (NPV) approach is used to quantify the current value of future cash flows, and then, a bottom-up estimate of the overall cost is obtained. Results and discussion The proposed model is tested on an offshore 500-MW baseline wind farm project, and the results are compared to experimental ones reported in the literature. Our results indicate that the capital cost of wind turbines and their installation costs account for the largest proportion of WLC, followed by the O&M costs. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted to identify those factors having the greatest impact on levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Conclusions The installed capacity of a wind farm, distance from shore and fault detection capability of the condition monitoring system are identified as parameters with significant influence on LCOE. Since the service lifetime of a wind farm is relatively long, a small change in interest rate leads to a large variation in the project’s total cost. The presented models not only assist stakeholders in evaluating the performance of ongoing projects but also help the wind farm developers reduce their costs in the medium–long term.