Summary: A safe, clean water supply is critical for sustaining many important ecosystem services provided by freshwaters. The development of cyanobacterial blooms in lakes and reservoirs has a major impact on the provision of these services, particularly limiting their use for recreation and water supply for drinking and spray irrigation. Nutrient enrichment is thought to be the most important pressure responsible for the widespread increase in cyanobacterial blooms in recent decades. Quantifying how nutrients limit cyanobacterial abundance in lakes is, therefore, a key need for setting robust targets for the management of freshwaters. Using a data set from over 800 European lakes, we highlight the use of quantile regression modelling for understanding the maximum potential capacity of cyanobacteria in relation to total phosphorus (TP) and the use of a range of quantile responses, alongside World Health Organisation (WHO) health alert thresholds for recreational waters, for setting robust phosphorus targets for lake management in relation to water use. The analysis shows that cyanobacteria exhibit a nonlinear response to phosphorus with the sharpest increase in cyanobacterial abundance occurring in the TP range from about 20 μg L⁻¹ up to about 100 μg L⁻¹. The likelihood of exceeding the World Health Organisation (WHO) ‘low health alert’ threshold increases from about 5% exceedance at 16 μg L⁻¹ to 40% exceedance at 54 μg L⁻¹. About 50% of the studied lakes remain below this WHO health alert threshold, irrespective of high summer TP concentrations, highlighting the importance of other factors affecting cyanobacteria population growth and loss processes, such as high flushing rate. Synthesis and applications. Developing a more quantitative understanding of the effect of nutrients on cyanobacterial abundance in freshwater lakes provides important knowledge for restoring and sustaining a safe, clean water supply for multiple uses. Our models can be used to set nutrient targets to sustain recreational services and provide different levels of precaution that can be chosen dependent on the importance of the service provision.

The identification of phylogenetic clusters of bacteria that are common in freshwater has provided a basis for probe design to target important freshwater groups. We present a set of 16S ribosomal RNA gene-based oligonucleotide probes specific for 15 of these freshwater clusters. The probes were applied in reverse line blot hybridization, a simple method that enables the rapid screening of PCR products from many samples against an array of probes. The optimized assay was made stringent to discriminate at approximately the single-mismatch level. This made 10 of the probes highly specific, with at least two mismatches to the closest noncluster member in the global database. Screening of PCR products from bacterioplankton of 81 diverse lakes from Belgium, The Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway showed that the respective probes were reactive against 5 to 100% of the lake samples. Positive reactivity of six highly specific probes showed that bacteria from actinobacterial clusters ACK-M1 and Sta2-30 and from verrucomicrobial cluster CLO-14 occurred in at least 90% of the investigated lakes. Furthermore, bacteria from alpha-proteobacterial cluster LD12 (closely related to the marine SAR11 cluster), beta-proteobacterial cluster LD28 and cyanobacterial cluster Synechococcus 6b occurred in more than 70% of the lakes. Reverse line blot hybridization is a new tool in microbial ecology that will facilitate research on distribution and habitat specificity of target species at relatively low costs.