Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis.Peer reviewe

VK: T20404Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship–ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The riskframework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.Peer reviewe

This paper proposes a framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems, where risk analysis is understood as a tool for argumentative decision support. Uncertainty is given a more prominent role than in the current state of art in the maritime transportation application area, and various tools are presented for analyzing uncertainty. A two-stage risk description is applied. In the first stage, Bayesian Network (BN) modeling is applied for probabilistic risk quantification. The model functions as a communication and argumentation tool, serving as an aid to thinking in a qualitative evidence and assumption effect assessment. The evidence assessment is used together with a sensitivity analysis to select alternative hypotheses for the risk quantification, while the assumption effect assessment is used to convey an argumentation beyond the model. Based on this, a deliberative uncertainty judgment is made in the second risk analysis stage, which is supplemented with a global strength of evidence assessment. The framework is applied to a case study of oil spill from tanker collisions, aimed at response capacity planning and ecological risk assessment. The BN-model is a proactive and transferable tool for assessing the occurrence of various spill sizes in a sea area. While the case study uses evidence specific to the Gulf of Finland, the model and risk analysis approach can be applied to other areas. Based on evaluation criteria and tests for the risk model and risk analysis, it is found that the model is a plausible representation of tanker collision oil spill risk.Peer reviewe