A new heuristic optimization algorithm is presented to solve the nonlinear optimization problems. The proposed algorithm utilizes a stochastic method to achieve the optimal point based on simplex techniques. A dual simplex is distributed stochastically in the search space to find the best optimal point. Simplexes share the best and worst vertices of one another to move better through search space. The proposed algorithm is applied to 25 well-known benchmarks, and its performance is compared with grey wolf optimizer (GWO), particle swarm optimization (PSO), Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm, hybrid GWO combined with pattern search (hGWO-PS), and hybrid GWO algorithm combined with random exploratory search algorithm (hGWO-RES). The numerical results show that the proposed algorithm, called stochastic dual simplex algorithm (SDSA), has a competitive performance in terms of accuracy and complexity.

To accurately predict the regional spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection, this study proposes a novel hybrid model, which combines a long short-term memory (LSTM) artificial recurrent neural network with dynamic behavioral models. Several factors and control strategies affect the virus spread, and the uncertainty arising from confounding variables underlying the spread of the COVID-19 infection is substantial. The proposed model considers the effect of multiple factors to enhance the accuracy in predicting the number of cases and deaths across the top ten most-affected countries at the time of the study. The results show that the proposed model closely replicates the test data, such that not only it provides accurate predictions but it also replicates the daily behavior of the system under uncertainty. The hybrid model outperforms the LSTM model while accounting for data limitation. The parameters of the hybrid models are optimized using a genetic algorithm for each country to improve the prediction power while considering regional properties. Since the proposed model can accurately predict the short-term to medium-term daily spreading of the COVID-19 infection, it is capable of being used for policy assessment, planning, and decision making.