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Nature-based solutions (NBS) are being deployed around the world in order to address hydrometeorological hazards, including flooding, droughts, landslides and many others. The term refers to techniques inspired, supported and copied from nature, avoiding large constructions and other harmful interventions. In this work the development and evaluation of an NBS applied to the Spercheios river basin in Central Greece is presented. The river is susceptible to heavy rainfall and bank overflow, therefore the intervention selected is a natural water retention measure that aims to moderate the impact of flooding and drought in the area. After the deployment of the NBS, we examine the benefits under current and future climate conditions, using various climate change scenarios. Even though the NBS deployed is small compared to the rest of the river, its presence leads to a decrease in the maximum depth of flooding, maximum velocity and smaller flooded areas. Regarding the subsurface/groundwater storage under current and future climate change and weather conditions, the NBS construction seems to favor long-term groundwater recharge.
Christos Spyrou; Michael Loupis; Νikos Charizopoulos; Ilektra Apostolidou; Angeliki Mentzafou; George Varlas; Anastasios Papadopoulos; Elias Dimitriou; Depy Panga; Lamprini Gkeka; Paul Bowyer; Susanne Pfeifer; Sisay Debele; Prashant Kumar. Evaluating Nature-Based Solution for Flood Reduction in Spercheios River Basin under Current and Future Climate Conditions. Sustainability 2021, 13, 3885 .
AMA StyleChristos Spyrou, Michael Loupis, Νikos Charizopoulos, Ilektra Apostolidou, Angeliki Mentzafou, George Varlas, Anastasios Papadopoulos, Elias Dimitriou, Depy Panga, Lamprini Gkeka, Paul Bowyer, Susanne Pfeifer, Sisay Debele, Prashant Kumar. Evaluating Nature-Based Solution for Flood Reduction in Spercheios River Basin under Current and Future Climate Conditions. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (7):3885.
Chicago/Turabian StyleChristos Spyrou; Michael Loupis; Νikos Charizopoulos; Ilektra Apostolidou; Angeliki Mentzafou; George Varlas; Anastasios Papadopoulos; Elias Dimitriou; Depy Panga; Lamprini Gkeka; Paul Bowyer; Susanne Pfeifer; Sisay Debele; Prashant Kumar. 2021. "Evaluating Nature-Based Solution for Flood Reduction in Spercheios River Basin under Current and Future Climate Conditions." Sustainability 13, no. 7: 3885.
Climate change and its impacts at local scales, such as the more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events like droughts or floods, pose an increasing problem for agriculture. Our aim is to support farmers with soil condition and weather forecasting products that provide the basis for optimal adaptation to short-term weather variability and extremes as well as to long-term, regional climate change.
For this purpose, a prototypical monitoring and real-time forecasting system was established. The monitoring networks consist of a novel cosmic ray neutron sensor (Styx Neutronica), soil moisture and temperature sensors in four depths between 5 and 60 cm (SoilNet) and an all-in-one weather station (ATMOS-41, METER Environment) to measure the atmospheric conditions including air temperature, humidity, pressure, solar irradiance, wind speed and precipitation at 2 meter height above ground. The observation data are transmitted in real time to a cloud server via the cellular solution NBIoT (Narrow Band Internet of Things). After data post-processing the meteorological and hydrological parameters measured on site are directly assimilated into the fully coupled multi-physical numerical model system TSMP (Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform, www.terrsysmp.org) at Forschungszentrum Jülich. ParFlow hydrologic model (www.parflow.org) is used in combination with the Community Land Model (CLM) to predict hourly, high-resolution (near plot level) information on soil moisture or other soil and meteorological parameters for the next 10 days. A special feature here is the prediction on the temporal development of plant-available water between 0-60cm depth for the sites of our monitoring network partners.
Observation data as well as the forecasting products are published in near real time on the digital product platform www.adapter-projekt.de. Users thus have direct access to relevant information that support them in planning agricultural management, e.g. irrigation and fertilization requirements, trafficability or workability.
Patrizia Ney; Alexandre Belleflamme; Maksim Iakunin; Niklas Wagner; Sebastian Bathiany; Susanne Pfeifer; Juliane El Zohbi; Diana Rechid; Klaus Görgen; Heye Bogena. Establishment of a network of soil moisture and cosmic ray neutron sensors for data assimilation and optimization of high-resolution, real-time predictions. 2021, 1 .
AMA StylePatrizia Ney, Alexandre Belleflamme, Maksim Iakunin, Niklas Wagner, Sebastian Bathiany, Susanne Pfeifer, Juliane El Zohbi, Diana Rechid, Klaus Görgen, Heye Bogena. Establishment of a network of soil moisture and cosmic ray neutron sensors for data assimilation and optimization of high-resolution, real-time predictions. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StylePatrizia Ney; Alexandre Belleflamme; Maksim Iakunin; Niklas Wagner; Sebastian Bathiany; Susanne Pfeifer; Juliane El Zohbi; Diana Rechid; Klaus Görgen; Heye Bogena. 2021. "Establishment of a network of soil moisture and cosmic ray neutron sensors for data assimilation and optimization of high-resolution, real-time predictions." , no. : 1.
Agriculture is among the sectors that are most vulnerable to extreme weather conditions and climate change. In Germany, the subsequent dry and hot summers 2018, 2019, and 2020 have brought this into the focus of public attention. Agricultural actors like farmers, advisors or companies are concerned with such interannual variability and extremes. Yet, it often remains unclear what long-term adaptation options are most suitable in the context of climate change, mainly because climate projections have uncertainties and are usually not tailored to meet requirements, measures and scales of the individual practicioners. In the ADAPTER project, we explore regional and local change on the weather- and climate-related time scales and together with stakeholders (administration, plant breeders, educators, agricultural advisors), we co-design tailored climate change indices and usable products.
In this contribution, we provide a snapshot view of our stakeholders' requirements regarding information about climate change over the next decades. We then focus on the analysis of three groups of indices based on 85 regional climate model simulations from Coordinated Downscaling Experiments over Europe - EURO-CORDEX: (i) changes in daily temperature variability, (ii) occurrence of agricultural droughts in summer, (iii) compound events of combined dryness and elevated temperatures during the same events. We show that these user-oriented, newly constructed indices can capture relevant changes during important phenological development states of typical crops. Finally, we discuss first implications of our findings for different adaptation strategies in Mid-Europe, such as alternating crop rotations, irrigation strategies or plant breeding. The analysis products presented are interactively and publicly available through a product platform (www.adapter-projekt.de) for agricultural stakeholders.
Sebastian Bathiany; Diana Rechid; Susanne Pfeifer; Juliane El Zohbi; Klaus Goergen; Niklas Wagner; Patrizia Ney; Alexandre Belleflamme. Simulation-based indices for a climate-resilient agriculture - insights from ADAPTER. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleSebastian Bathiany, Diana Rechid, Susanne Pfeifer, Juliane El Zohbi, Klaus Goergen, Niklas Wagner, Patrizia Ney, Alexandre Belleflamme. Simulation-based indices for a climate-resilient agriculture - insights from ADAPTER. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSebastian Bathiany; Diana Rechid; Susanne Pfeifer; Juliane El Zohbi; Klaus Goergen; Niklas Wagner; Patrizia Ney; Alexandre Belleflamme. 2021. "Simulation-based indices for a climate-resilient agriculture - insights from ADAPTER." , no. : 1.
Everyone, politicians, public administrations, business owners, and citizens want to know how climate changes will affect them locally. Having such knowledge offers everyone the opportunity to make informed choices and take action towards mitigation and adaptation.
In order to develop locally relevant climate service products and climate advisory services, as we do at GERICS, we must extract localized climate change information from Regional Climate Model ensemble simulations.
Common challenges associated with developing such services include the transformation of petabytes of data from physical quantities such as precipitation, temperature, or wind, into user-applicable quantities such as return periods of heavy precipitation, e.g. for legislative or construction design frequency. Other challenges include the technical and physical barriers in the use and interpretation of climate data, due to large data volume, unfamiliar software and data formats, or limited technical infrastructure. The interpretation of climate data also requires scientific background knowledge, which limit or influence the interpretation of results.
These barriers hinder the efficient and effective transformation of big data into user relevant information in a timely and reliable manner. To enable our society to adapt and become more resilient to climate change, we must overcome these barriers. In the Helmholtz funded Digital Earth project we are tackling these challenges by developing a Climate Change Workflow.
In the scope of this Workflow, the user can easily define a region of interest and extract the relevant climate data from the simulations available at the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). Following which, a general overview of the projected changes, in precipitation for example, for multiple climate projections is presented. It conveys the bandwidth, i.e. the minimum/maximum range by an ensemble of regional climate model projections. We implemented the sketched workflow in a web-based tool called The Climate Change Explorer. It addresses barriers associated with extracting locally relevant climate data from petabytes of data, in unfamilar data formats, and deals with interpolation issues, using a more intuitive and user-friendly web interface.
Ultimately, the Climate Change Explorer provides concise information on the magnitude of projected climate change and the range of these changes for individually defined regions, such as found in GERICS ‘Climate Fact Sheets’. This tool has the capacity to also improve other workflows of climate services, allowing them to dedicate more time in deriving user relevant climate indicies; enabling politicians, public administrations, and businesses to take action.
Christine Nam; Bente Tiedje; Susanne Pfeifer; Diana Rechid; Daniel Eggert. Climate Change Explorer: Extracting localized data for developing Climate Services. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleChristine Nam, Bente Tiedje, Susanne Pfeifer, Diana Rechid, Daniel Eggert. Climate Change Explorer: Extracting localized data for developing Climate Services. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleChristine Nam; Bente Tiedje; Susanne Pfeifer; Diana Rechid; Daniel Eggert. 2021. "Climate Change Explorer: Extracting localized data for developing Climate Services." , no. : 1.
In this study, the projected future long-term changes of the local wave conditions at the German Baltic Sea coast over the course of the 21st century are analyzed and assessed with special focus on model agreement, statistical significance and ranges/spread of the results. An ensemble of new regional climate model (RCM) simulations with the RCM REMO for three RCP forcing scenarios was used as input data. The outstanding feature of the simulations is that the data are available with a high horizontal resolution and at hourly timesteps which is a high temporal resolution and beneficial for the wind–wave modelling. A new data interface between RCM output data and wind–wave modelling has been developed. Suitable spatial aggregation methods of the RCM wind data have been tested and used to generate input for the calculation of waves at quasi deep-water conditions and at a mean water level with a hybrid approach that enables the fast compilation of future long-term time series of significant wave height, mean wave period and direction for an ensemble of RCM data. Changes of the average wind and wave conditions have been found, with a majority of the changes occurring for the RCP8.5 forcing scenario and at the end of the 21st century. At westerly wind-exposed locations mainly increasing values of the wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period have been noted. In contrast, at easterly wind-exposed locations, decreasing values are predominant. Regarding the changes of the mean wind and wave directions, westerly directions becoming more frequent. Additional research is needed regarding the long-term changes of extreme wave events, e.g., the choice of a best-fit extreme value distribution function and the spatial aggregation method of the wind data.
Norman Dreier; Edgar Nehlsen; Peter Fröhle; Diana Rechid; Laurens Bouwer; Susanne Pfeifer. Future Changes in Wave Conditions at the German Baltic Sea Coast Based on a Hybrid Approach Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Change Projections. Water 2021, 13, 167 .
AMA StyleNorman Dreier, Edgar Nehlsen, Peter Fröhle, Diana Rechid, Laurens Bouwer, Susanne Pfeifer. Future Changes in Wave Conditions at the German Baltic Sea Coast Based on a Hybrid Approach Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Change Projections. Water. 2021; 13 (2):167.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNorman Dreier; Edgar Nehlsen; Peter Fröhle; Diana Rechid; Laurens Bouwer; Susanne Pfeifer. 2021. "Future Changes in Wave Conditions at the German Baltic Sea Coast Based on a Hybrid Approach Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Change Projections." Water 13, no. 2: 167.
Die Landwirtschaft ist ein Sektor mit unmittelbarer Abhängigkeit von Wetter und Klima, und daher in besonderem Maße von Extremwetterereignissen und Klimaveränderungen betroffen. Die seit 2018 anhaltende Dürrephase in weiten Teilen Deutschlands hat uns dies besonders vor Augen geführt.
Viele Akteure in der Landwirtschaft reagieren nur kurzfristig auf stattfindende Schwankungen der Witterungsbedingungen. Welche langfristigen Anpassungsmaßnahmen nötig sind, bleibt oft unklar, da sowohl Klimaprojektionen als auch deren Bedeutung und Relevanz in der Praxis mit Unsicherheiten behaftet sind.
Im Projekt ADAPTER erkunden wir diese Unsicherheiten, um Klimaprojektionen passgerecht in praxisrelevante Informationen zu überführen. Den inhaltlichen Fokus erarbeiten wir dabei im Dialog mit Praxispartnern, die in Verwaltungsbehörden, Landwirtschaftskammern, im Ackerbau und in Pflanzenzuchtunternehmen aktiv sind.
In unserem Beitrag gehen wir sowohl auf die Methodik als auch die Ergebnisse dieser Vorgehensweise ein. Insbesondere identifizieren und analysieren wir praxisrelevante Klima-Indizes, die auf bestimmte Entwicklungsstadien von Feldfrüchten und auf ausgewählte Klima-Boden-Räume in Deutschland zugeschnitten sind. Die Indizes erfassen z.B. das Auftreten extremer, einander gegenseitig beeinflussender Bedingungen in mehreren Variablen gleichzeitig (sogenannter "compound events"), die Statistik der Dauer von Extremereignissen und die Stärke der täglichen Variabilität.
Unsere Datenanalyse umfasst dabei Beobachtungen, Reanalysen und 85 regionale Klimasimulationen des EURO-CORDEX-Ensembles. Beispielsweise finden wir Tendenzen für eine zunehmende Temperaturvariabilität, ein zunehmendes Risiko von kombiniertem Trocken- und Hitzestress, und Änderungen der potentiellen Befahrbarkeit der Böden. Um zu beurteilen, wie diese Änderungen den Ertrag beeinträchtigen können, verschneiden wir die projizierten Klimaänderungen mit physiologischen Schwellwerten der heute angebauten Feldfrüchte.
Auf Grundlage unserer Auswertung erörtern wir abschließend, wie sich die Häufigkeit und Dauer von Trockenperioden im Klimawandel verändert, und inwiefern diese Änderungen aus der Klimavariabilität heraustreten.
Sebastian Bathiany; Diana Rechid; Susanne Pfeifer; Juliane El Zohbi; Klaus Görgen; Niklas Wagner; Alexandre Belleflamme. Indikatoren aus regionalen Klimaprojektionen für eine klimaresiliente Landwirtschaft. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleSebastian Bathiany, Diana Rechid, Susanne Pfeifer, Juliane El Zohbi, Klaus Görgen, Niklas Wagner, Alexandre Belleflamme. Indikatoren aus regionalen Klimaprojektionen für eine klimaresiliente Landwirtschaft. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSebastian Bathiany; Diana Rechid; Susanne Pfeifer; Juliane El Zohbi; Klaus Görgen; Niklas Wagner; Alexandre Belleflamme. 2020. "Indikatoren aus regionalen Klimaprojektionen für eine klimaresiliente Landwirtschaft." , no. : 1.
The goal of an interdisciplinary team of scientists at the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) was to make the findings of the special report IPCC SR1.5 more accessible to the citizens of Hamburg. Therefore, a flyer was created that is understandable to non-climate scientists, visually attractive and generates interest. It contains up-to-date climate information, readily understandable texts and several graphical visualisations. The team has been working intensively on analysing and processing further the consequences of a 1.5 ∘C global warming for the Hamburg metropolitan region. While the team's natural scientists elaborated the impacts on specific climate indices, other team members focused on the visualisation and communication of the results.
Bettina Steuri; Tanja Blome; Katharina Bülow; Juliane El Zohbi; Peter Hoffmann; Juliane Petersen; Susanne Pfeifer; Diana Rechid; Daniela Jacob. Behind the scenes of an interdisciplinary effort: conception, design and production of a flyer on climate change for the citizens of Hamburg. Advances in Science and Research 2020, 17, 9 -17.
AMA StyleBettina Steuri, Tanja Blome, Katharina Bülow, Juliane El Zohbi, Peter Hoffmann, Juliane Petersen, Susanne Pfeifer, Diana Rechid, Daniela Jacob. Behind the scenes of an interdisciplinary effort: conception, design and production of a flyer on climate change for the citizens of Hamburg. Advances in Science and Research. 2020; 17 ():9-17.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBettina Steuri; Tanja Blome; Katharina Bülow; Juliane El Zohbi; Peter Hoffmann; Juliane Petersen; Susanne Pfeifer; Diana Rechid; Daniela Jacob. 2020. "Behind the scenes of an interdisciplinary effort: conception, design and production of a flyer on climate change for the citizens of Hamburg." Advances in Science and Research 17, no. : 9-17.
The African population is already exposed to climate extremes such as droughts, heat waves and extreme precipitation, which cause damage to agriculture and infrastructure, and affect people's well-being. However, the simultaneous or sequential occurrence of two single climate extremes (compound event) has a more severe impact on the population and economy than single climate extremes. This circumstance is exacerbated by the increase in the African population, which is expected to double by the middle of this century according to the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA). Currently, little is known about the potential future change in the occurrence of compound climate extremes and population exposed to these events in Africa. This knowledge is however needed by stakeholder and decision makers to develop measures for adaptation.
This research analyzes the occurrence of compound climate extremes such as droughts, heat waves and extreme precipitation in Africa under two different emission scenarios for the end of the century. For the analysis, we applied regional climate projections from the newly performed Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) embedded in the WCRP Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Framework for Africa at a grid spacing of 25 km, and spatial maps of population projections derived from two different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In order to take into account a low and a high emission scenario, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 were used in the regional climate projections.
We will show that compound climate extremes are projected to be more frequent in Africa under the high emission scenario at the end of the century, and an increase in total exposure is primarily expected for West Africa, Central-East Africa and South-East Africa. Furthermore, combined impacts of population growth and increase in frequencies of compound extremes play an important role in the change of total exposure.
Torsten Weber; Paul Bowyer; Diana Rechid; Susanne Pfeifer; Francesca Raffaele; Armelle Reca Remedio; Claas Teichmann; Daniela Jacob. Future compound climate extremes and exposed population in Africa. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleTorsten Weber, Paul Bowyer, Diana Rechid, Susanne Pfeifer, Francesca Raffaele, Armelle Reca Remedio, Claas Teichmann, Daniela Jacob. Future compound climate extremes and exposed population in Africa. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTorsten Weber; Paul Bowyer; Diana Rechid; Susanne Pfeifer; Francesca Raffaele; Armelle Reca Remedio; Claas Teichmann; Daniela Jacob. 2020. "Future compound climate extremes and exposed population in Africa." , no. : 1.
Within the Hamburg Cooperation project „HYBRIDS – Chances and Challenges of New Genomic Combinations“ (https://www.biologie.uni-hamburg.de/en/forschung/verbundvorhaben/hybride-mehr-infos.html), one subproject deals with the problem of finding relations between the existance of hybrid plant species and the climate and its variability at the same location. For this, biological and climatic data is brought together and statistical and machine learning techniques are applied to derive climatic differences between those regions where both parent species, but no hybrid species are found, and those regions where both parent species and the hybrid species were found.
Both the climate data (here daily gridded E-OBS temperature (mean, min, max) and precipitation on ~10 km grid resolution for the period of 1970 to 2006 (Haylock et al.,2008, Cornes et al., 2018)) and the plants data (Hybrid Flora of the British Isles, 700 taxa, 6 112 847 lines of data, (Stace et al., 2015)) can be considered as „big data“. However, the peculiarities of both data are very different and so are the issues to be considered when tackling the data.
We will present the first results of this interdisciplinary effort, discuss the methodological issues and elaborate on the chances and challenges of interpreting the findings.
Cornes, R., G. van der Schrier, E.J.M. van den Besselaar, and P.D. Jones. 2018: An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Datasets, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 123.
Haylock, M. R., Hofstra, N., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Klok, E. J., Jones, P. D. & M. New (2008): A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 113(20). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010201
Stace, C.A., Preston, C.D. & D.A. Pearman (2015): Hybrid flora of the British Isles. Botanical Society of Britain & Ireland. 501pp.
Susanne Pfeifer; Katharina Bülow; Lennart Marien. Connecting big data from climate and biology using statistics and machine learning techniques. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleSusanne Pfeifer, Katharina Bülow, Lennart Marien. Connecting big data from climate and biology using statistics and machine learning techniques. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSusanne Pfeifer; Katharina Bülow; Lennart Marien. 2020. "Connecting big data from climate and biology using statistics and machine learning techniques." , no. : 1.
Within the framework of WCRP CORDEX, the CORE (CORDEX Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations) experiment provides a homogeneous ensemble of regional climate projections for 9 domains covering all land areas of the globe with the exception of the Arctic and Antarctic regions (http://www.cordex.org/experiment-guidelines/cordex-core/). CORDEX-CORE provides data from two regional climate models (REMO2015 and RegCM), driven by 3 GCMs and under 2 RCP scenario conditions at a resolution of about 25 km. In addition, within the same framework, simulations of the current climate, driven by ERA-Interim, were carried out for all areas with REMO2015 at a grid resolution of approx. 25 km.
Within the German Project ViWA (Virtual Water Values, https://viwa.geographie-muenchen.de), simulations with the regional climate model REMO2015, driven by ERA-INTERIM analyses were carried out for the same regions globally, but on a significantly higher spatial resolution of approx. 12.5 km. These simulations cover the time period from 2015 to 2018. Comparing these highly resolved simulations to the coarsely resolved CORDEX-CORE simulations, can give indications, in which regions and for which processes the CORDEX-CORE resolution of 25 km is sufficient and where a higher resolution brings a clear added value.
We will show first results of this comparison, focusing on selected regions and processes which potentially benefit from higher spatial resolution of the simulations.
Martina Schubert-Frisius; Susanne Pfeifer; Armelle Reca Remedio; Claas Teichmann; Lars Buntemeyer; Kevin Sieck; Torsten Weber; Diana Rechid; Daniela Jacob. First results of a comparison study of multi-domain REMO CORDEX simulations between 0.11° and 0.22° resolution with ERA-Interim forcing. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleMartina Schubert-Frisius, Susanne Pfeifer, Armelle Reca Remedio, Claas Teichmann, Lars Buntemeyer, Kevin Sieck, Torsten Weber, Diana Rechid, Daniela Jacob. First results of a comparison study of multi-domain REMO CORDEX simulations between 0.11° and 0.22° resolution with ERA-Interim forcing. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMartina Schubert-Frisius; Susanne Pfeifer; Armelle Reca Remedio; Claas Teichmann; Lars Buntemeyer; Kevin Sieck; Torsten Weber; Diana Rechid; Daniela Jacob. 2020. "First results of a comparison study of multi-domain REMO CORDEX simulations between 0.11° and 0.22° resolution with ERA-Interim forcing." , no. : 1.
In the German regional climate modeling project ReKliEs-De the existing EURO-CORDEX simulations have been systematically complemented by new simulations to derive more robust ranges of possible future climate change. The focus of the project lay on user tailored results, which are required for the planning of measures to adapt to the changing climate. Changes in temperature and precipitation indices are calculated from a multi model ensemble for the end of the 21st century. The results for the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are compared to the results of the “business as usual” scenario RCP8.5. Averaged over Germany the increase of mean annual temperature and of the number of summer days will be around 3 times higher for RCP8.5 than for RCP2.6. In summer, the increase of dry days could be twice as high in RCP8.5 compared to RCP2.6.
Katharina Bülow; Heike Huebener; Klaus Keuler; Christoph Menz; Susanne Pfeifer; Hans Ramthun; Arne Spekat; Christian Steger; Claas Teichmann; Kirsten Warrach-Sagi. User tailored results of a regional climate model ensemble to plan adaption to the changing climate in Germany. Advances in Science and Research 2019, 16, 241 -249.
AMA StyleKatharina Bülow, Heike Huebener, Klaus Keuler, Christoph Menz, Susanne Pfeifer, Hans Ramthun, Arne Spekat, Christian Steger, Claas Teichmann, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi. User tailored results of a regional climate model ensemble to plan adaption to the changing climate in Germany. Advances in Science and Research. 2019; 16 ():241-249.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKatharina Bülow; Heike Huebener; Klaus Keuler; Christoph Menz; Susanne Pfeifer; Hans Ramthun; Arne Spekat; Christian Steger; Claas Teichmann; Kirsten Warrach-Sagi. 2019. "User tailored results of a regional climate model ensemble to plan adaption to the changing climate in Germany." Advances in Science and Research 16, no. : 241-249.
Assessing multiple climatic and non-climatic variables affecting one region at the same time is a crucial aspect to support climate adaptation action. This publication presents a method to display relevant measures of any three adaptation relevant parameters (or optionally their projected future changes) at once on a map by allocating them to multiple transparency levels of the three primary colors of additive color mixing (red, green, and blue). The overlay of information allows the combined assessment of the regional exposures. The method is demonstrated by two examples based on an ensemble of regional climate projections analyzed for 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C global warming periods. The first example shows the increasing number of people at risk for summer climate extremes under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C global warming by combining projected increases in tropical nights and summer intense precipitation days with today’s population density. Under 3 °C global warming, many heavily populated areas across Europe are affected by both heat stress and summer precipitation extremes, whereas under 1.5 °C global warming, heat stress regions are restricted to southern Europe and the large settlements along the Eastern Mediterranean coast. A second example combines daily mean and minimum and maximum summer temperatures and highlights the regional expansion and the increasing robustness of projected mean summer warming with rising global warming levels, as well as the regional day to night differences of the warming signal.
Susanne Pfeifer; Diana Rechid; Maximilian Reuter; Elisabeth Viktor; Daniela Jacob. 1.5°, 2°, and 3° global warming: visualizing European regions affected by multiple changes. Regional Environmental Change 2019, 19, 1777 -1786.
AMA StyleSusanne Pfeifer, Diana Rechid, Maximilian Reuter, Elisabeth Viktor, Daniela Jacob. 1.5°, 2°, and 3° global warming: visualizing European regions affected by multiple changes. Regional Environmental Change. 2019; 19 (6):1777-1786.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSusanne Pfeifer; Diana Rechid; Maximilian Reuter; Elisabeth Viktor; Daniela Jacob. 2019. "1.5°, 2°, and 3° global warming: visualizing European regions affected by multiple changes." Regional Environmental Change 19, no. 6: 1777-1786.
The need to restrict global mean temperature to avoid irreversible climate change is supported by scientific evidence. The need became political practice at the Conference of the Parties in 2015, where the participants decided to limit global warming to not more than +2.0 °C compared to pre-industrial times and to rather aim for a limit of +1.5 °C global warming. Nevertheless, a clear picture of what European climate would look like under +1.5 °C, +2.0 °C and +3.0 °C global warming level (GWL) is still missing. In this study, we will fill this gap by assessing selected climate indices related to temperature and precipitation extremes, based on state of the art regional climate information for Europe taken from the European branch of the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble. To assess the impact of these indices under climate change, we investigate the spatial extent of the area of the climate change signal in relation to the affected population. This allows us to demonstrate which climate extremes could be avoided when global warming is kept well below +2.0 °C or even +1.5 °C compared to higher GWLs. The European north–south gradient of tropical nights and hot days is projected to be intensified with an increasing global warming level. For precipitation-related indices, an overall increase in precipitation extremes is simulated, especially under +3.0 °C GWL, for mid- and northern Europe, whereas an increase in dry days is projected for many regions in southern Europe. The benefit of staying below +1.5 °C GWL compared to +2.0 °C GWL is the avoidance of an additional increase in tropical nights and hot days parallel to an increase in dry days in parts of southern Europe as well as an increase in heavy precipitation in parts of Scandinavia. Compared to +3.0 °C GWL, the benefit of staying at +1.5 °C GWL is to avoid a substantial increase (i.e., an increase of more than five dry days and ten tropical nights) in dry days and tropical nights in southern European regions, while, in several European regions and especially in northern Europe, a substantial increase (i.e., more than two heavy precipitation days) in heavy precipitation days could be avoided. This study shows that a statistically significant change in the investigated climate indices can be avoided under +1.5 °C GWL compared to the investigated higher GWLs +2.0 °C and +3.0 °C for the majority of the population in almost all regions. Future studies will investigate compound events where the severity of single extreme events is intensified.
Claas Teichmann; Katharina Bülow; Juliane Otto; Susanne Pfeifer; Diana Rechid; Kevin Sieck; Daniela Jacob. Avoiding Extremes: Benefits of Staying below +1.5 °C Compared to +2.0 °C and +3.0 °C Global Warming. Atmosphere 2018, 9, 115 .
AMA StyleClaas Teichmann, Katharina Bülow, Juliane Otto, Susanne Pfeifer, Diana Rechid, Kevin Sieck, Daniela Jacob. Avoiding Extremes: Benefits of Staying below +1.5 °C Compared to +2.0 °C and +3.0 °C Global Warming. Atmosphere. 2018; 9 (4):115.
Chicago/Turabian StyleClaas Teichmann; Katharina Bülow; Juliane Otto; Susanne Pfeifer; Diana Rechid; Kevin Sieck; Daniela Jacob. 2018. "Avoiding Extremes: Benefits of Staying below +1.5 °C Compared to +2.0 °C and +3.0 °C Global Warming." Atmosphere 9, no. 4: 115.
Communication between providers and users of climate model simulation results still needs to be improved. In the German regional climate modeling project ReKliEs-De a midterm user workshop was conducted to allow the intended users of the project results to assess the preliminary results and to streamline the final project results to their needs. The user feedback highlighted, in particular, the still considerable gap between climate research output and user-tailored input for climate impact research. Two major requests from the user community addressed the selection of sub-ensembles and some condensed, easy to understand information on the strengths and weaknesses of the climate models involved in the project.
Heike Huebener; Peter Hoffmann; Klaus Keuler; Susanne Pfeifer; Hans Ramthun; Arne Spekat; Christian Steger; Kirsten Warrach-Sagi. Deriving user-informed climate information from climate model ensemble results. Advances in Science and Research 2017, 14, 261 -269.
AMA StyleHeike Huebener, Peter Hoffmann, Klaus Keuler, Susanne Pfeifer, Hans Ramthun, Arne Spekat, Christian Steger, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi. Deriving user-informed climate information from climate model ensemble results. Advances in Science and Research. 2017; 14 ():261-269.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHeike Huebener; Peter Hoffmann; Klaus Keuler; Susanne Pfeifer; Hans Ramthun; Arne Spekat; Christian Steger; Kirsten Warrach-Sagi. 2017. "Deriving user-informed climate information from climate model ensemble results." Advances in Science and Research 14, no. : 261-269.
Climate signal maps can be used to identify regions where robust climate changes can be derived from an ensemble of climate change simulations. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Climate signal maps do not show all information available from the model ensemble, but give a condensed view in order to be useful for non-climate scientists who have to assess climate change impact during the course of their work. Three different ensembles of regional climate projections have been analyzed regarding changes of seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (defined as the number of days exceeding the 95th percentile threshold of daily precipitation) for Germany, using climate signal maps. Although the models used and the scenario assumptions differ for the three ensembles (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 vs. RCP8.5 vs. A1B), some similarities in the projections of future seasonal and extreme precipitation can be seen. For the winter season, both mean and extreme precipitation are projected to increase. The strength, robustness and regional pattern of this increase, however, depends on the ensemble. For summer, a robust decrease of mean precipitation can be detected only for small regions in southwestern Germany and only from two of the three ensembles, whereas none of them projects a robust increase of summer extreme precipitation.
Susanne Pfeifer; Katharina Bülow; Andreas Gobiet; Andreas Hänsler; Manfred Mudelsee; Juliane Otto; Diana Rechid; Claas Teichmann; Daniela Jacob. Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections Analyzed with Climate Signal Maps: Seasonal and Extreme Precipitation for Germany. Atmosphere 2015, 6, 677 -698.
AMA StyleSusanne Pfeifer, Katharina Bülow, Andreas Gobiet, Andreas Hänsler, Manfred Mudelsee, Juliane Otto, Diana Rechid, Claas Teichmann, Daniela Jacob. Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections Analyzed with Climate Signal Maps: Seasonal and Extreme Precipitation for Germany. Atmosphere. 2015; 6 (5):677-698.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSusanne Pfeifer; Katharina Bülow; Andreas Gobiet; Andreas Hänsler; Manfred Mudelsee; Juliane Otto; Diana Rechid; Claas Teichmann; Daniela Jacob. 2015. "Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections Analyzed with Climate Signal Maps: Seasonal and Extreme Precipitation for Germany." Atmosphere 6, no. 5: 677-698.
Global and regional climate model simulations are frequently used for regional climate change assessments and in climate impact modeling studies. To reflect the inherent and methodological uncertainties in climate modeling, the assessment of regional climate change requires ensemble simulations from different global and regional climate model combinations. To interpret the spread of simulated results, it is useful to understand how the climate change signal is modified in the GCM-RCM modelmodelgeneral circulation model-regional climate model (GCM-RCM) chain. This kind of information can also be useful for impact modelers; for the process of experiment design and when interpreting model results. In this study, we investigate how the simulated historical and future climate of the Max-Planck-Institute earth system model (MPI-ESM) is modified by dynamic downscaling with the regional model REMO in different world regions. The historical climate simulations for 1950–2005 are driven by observed anthropogenic forcing. The climate projections are driven by projected anthropogenic forcing according to different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The global simulations are downscaled with REMO over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains Africa, Europe, South America and West Asia from 2006–2100. This unique set of simulations allows for climate type specific analysis across multiple world regions and for multi-scenarios. We used a classification of climate types by Köppen-Trewartha to define evaluation regions with certain climate conditions. A systematic comparison of near-surface temperature and precipitation simulated by the regional and the global model is done. In general, the historical time period is well represented by the GCM and the RCM. Some different biases occur in the RCM compared to the GCM as in the Amazon Basin, northern Africa and the West Asian domain. Both models project similar warming, although somewhat less so by the RCM for certain regions and climate types. A common feature in regions of tropical climate types is that REMO shows dryer climate conditions than forMax Planck Institute for Meteorology-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, leading to an opposing sign in the climate change signal. With an increase in radiative forcing from RCP 2.6 to RCP 8.5 and towards the end of the 21st century, some of the detected differences between GCM and RCM are more pronounced.
Claas Teichmann; Bastian Eggert; Alberto Elizalde; Andreas Haensler; Daniela Jacob; Pankaj Kumar; Christopher Moseley; Susanne Pfeifer; Diana Rechid; Armelle Reca Remedio; Hinnerk Ries; Juliane Petersen; Swantje Preuschmann; Thomas Raub; Fahad Saeed; Kevin Sieck; Torsten Weber. How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO. Atmosphere 2013, 4, 214 -236.
AMA StyleClaas Teichmann, Bastian Eggert, Alberto Elizalde, Andreas Haensler, Daniela Jacob, Pankaj Kumar, Christopher Moseley, Susanne Pfeifer, Diana Rechid, Armelle Reca Remedio, Hinnerk Ries, Juliane Petersen, Swantje Preuschmann, Thomas Raub, Fahad Saeed, Kevin Sieck, Torsten Weber. How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO. Atmosphere. 2013; 4 (2):214-236.
Chicago/Turabian StyleClaas Teichmann; Bastian Eggert; Alberto Elizalde; Andreas Haensler; Daniela Jacob; Pankaj Kumar; Christopher Moseley; Susanne Pfeifer; Diana Rechid; Armelle Reca Remedio; Hinnerk Ries; Juliane Petersen; Swantje Preuschmann; Thomas Raub; Fahad Saeed; Kevin Sieck; Torsten Weber. 2013. "How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO." Atmosphere 4, no. 2: 214-236.