Oxygen isotope ratios from fish otoliths are used to discriminate marine stocks and reconstruct past climate, assuming that variations in otolith δ¹⁸O values closely reflect differences in temperature history of fish when accounting for salinity induced variability in water δ¹⁸O. To investigate this, we exploited the environmental and migratory data gathered from a decade using archival tags to study the behaviour of adult plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) in the North Sea. Based on the tag-derived monthly distributions of the fish and corresponding temperature and salinity estimates modelled across three consecutive years, we first predicted annual otolith δ¹⁸O values for three geographically discrete offshore sub-stocks, using three alternative plausible scenarios for otolith growth. Comparison of predicted vs. measured annual δ¹⁸O values demonstrated >96% correct prediction of sub-stock membership, irrespective of the otolith growth scenario. Pronounced inter-stock differences in δ¹⁸O values, notably in summer, provide a robust marker for reconstructing broad-scale plaice distribution in the North Sea. However, although largely congruent, measured and predicted annual δ¹⁸O values of did not fully match. Small, but consistent, offsets were also observed between individual high-resolution otolith δ¹⁸O values measured during tag recording time and corresponding δ¹⁸O predictions using concomitant tag-recorded temperatures and location-specific salinity estimates. The nature of the shifts differed among sub-stocks, suggesting specific vital effects linked to variation in physiological response to temperature. Therefore, although otolith δ¹⁸O in free-ranging fish largely reflects environmental temperature and salinity, we counsel prudence when interpreting otolith δ¹⁸O data for stock discrimination or temperature reconstruction until the mechanisms underpinning otolith δ¹⁸O signature acquisition, and associated variation, are clarified.