Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a leading cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in young adults. Current risk algorithms provide only a crude estimate of risk and fail to account for the different effect size of individual risk factors. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a new SCD risk prediction model that provides individualized risk estimates. The prognostic model was derived from a retrospective, multi-centre longitudinal cohort study. The model was developed from the entire data set using the Cox proportional hazards model and internally validated using bootstrapping. The cohort consisted of 3675 consecutive patients from six centres. During a follow-up period of 24 313 patient-years (median 5.7 years), 198 patients (5%) died suddenly or had an appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) shock. Of eight pre-specified predictors, age, maximal left ventricular wall thickness, left atrial diameter, left ventricular outflow tract gradient, family history of SCD, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and unexplained syncope were associated with SCD/appropriate ICD shock at the 15% significance level. These predictors were included in the final model to estimate individual probabilities of SCD at 5 years. The calibration slope was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.74, 1.08), C-index was 0.70 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.72), and D-statistic was 1.07 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.32). For every 16 ICDs implanted in patients with ≥4% 5-year SCD risk, potentially 1 patient will be saved from SCD at 5 years. A second model with the data set split into independent development and validation cohorts had very similar estimates of coefficients and performance when externally validated. This is the first validated SCD risk prediction model for patients with HCM and provides accurate individualized estimates for the probability of SCD using readily collected clinical parameters.

Background—: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is the most common cause of sudden death in the young, although not all patients eligible for sudden death prevention with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator are identified. Contrast-enhanced cardiovascular magnetic resonance with late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) has emerged as an in vivo marker of myocardial fibrosis, although its role in stratifying sudden death risk in subgroups of HCM patients remains incompletely understood. Methods and Results—: We assessed the relation between LGE and cardiovascular outcomes in 1293 HCM patients referred for cardiovascular magnetic resonance and followed up for a median of 3.3 years. Sudden cardiac death (SCD) events (including appropriate defibrillator interventions) occurred in 37 patients (3%). A continuous relationship was evident between LGE by percent left ventricular mass and SCD event risk in HCM patients ( P =0.001). Extent of LGE was associated with an increased risk of SCD events (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.46/10% increase in LGE; P =0.002), even after adjustment for other relevant disease variables. LGE of ≥15% of LV mass demonstrated a 2-fold increase in SCD event risk in those patients otherwise considered to be at lower risk, with an estimated likelihood for SCD events of 6% at 5 years. Performance of the SCD event risk model was enhanced by LGE (net reclassification index, 12.9%; 95% confidence interval, 0.3–38.3). Absence of LGE was associated with lower risk for SCD events (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.39; P =0.02). Extent of LGE also predicted the development of end-stage HCM with systolic dysfunction (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.80/10% increase in LGE; P <0.03). Conclusions—: Extensive LGE measured by quantitative contrast enhanced CMR provides additional information for assessing SCD event risk among HCM patients, particularly patients otherwise judged to be at low risk.

Background— Most studies of amyloidotic cardiomyopathy consider as a single entity the 3 main systemic cardiac amyloidoses: acquired monoclonal immunoglobulin light-chain (AL); hereditary, mutated transthyretin-related (ATTRm); and wild-type transthyretin-related (ATTRwt). In this study, we compared the diagnostic/clinical profiles of these 3 types of systemic cardiac amyloidosis. Methods and Results— We conducted a longitudinal study of 233 patients with clear-cut diagnosis by type of cardiac amyloidosis (AL, n=157; ATTRm, n=61; ATTRwt, n=15) at 2 large Italian centers providing coordinated amyloidosis diagnosis/management facilities since 1990. Average age at diagnosis was higher in AL than in ATTRm patients; all ATTRwt patients except 1 were elderly men. At diagnosis, mean left ventricular wall thickness was higher in ATTRwt than in ATTRm and AL. Left ventricular ejection fraction was moderately depressed in ATTRwt but not in AL or ATTRm. ATTRm patients less often displayed low QRS voltage (25% versus 60% in AL; P <0.0001) or low voltage-to-mass ratio (1.1±0.5 versus 0.9±0.5; P <0.0001). AL patients appeared to have greater hemodynamic impairment. On multivariate analysis, ATTRm was a strongly favorable predictor of survival, and ATTRwt predicted freedom from major cardiac events. Conclusions— AL, ATTRm, and ATTRwt should be considered 3 different cardiac diseases, probably characterized by different pathophysiological substrates and courses. Awareness of the diversity underlying the cardiac amyloidosis label is important on several levels, ranging from disease classification to diagnosis and clinical management.

Background— The prognostic significance of syncope has not been investigated systematically in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, and treatment strategies have been based largely on intuition and experience. Methods and Results— We assessed the relationship between syncope and sudden death in 1511 consecutive patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Unexplained (n=153) or neurally mediated (n=52) syncope occurred in 205 patients (14%). Over a 5.6±5.2-year follow-up, 74 patients died suddenly. Relative risk of sudden death was 1.78 (95% confidence interval 0.88 to 3.51, P =0.08) in patients with unexplained syncope and 0.91 (95% confidence interval 0.00 to 3.83, P =1.0) in those with neurally mediated syncope compared with patients without syncope. In multivariable analysis, the temporal proximity of unexplained syncope to initial patient evaluation was independently associated with risk of sudden death ( P =0.006). Patients with unexplained syncope within 6 months before the initial evaluation showed a 5-fold increase in risk compared with patients without syncope (adjusted hazard ratio 4.89, 95% confidence interval 2.19 to 10.94), a relationship that was maintained throughout all age groups (5 years before initial evaluation) did not show an increased risk of sudden death (adjusted hazard ratio 0.38, 95% confidence interval 0.05 to 2.74). Conclusions— In the present large cohort of patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, unexplained syncope was a risk factor for sudden death. Patients with syncopal events that occurred in close temporal proximity to the initial evaluation showed a substantially higher risk of sudden death than patients without syncope. Older patients with remote syncopal events did not show an increased risk.