No turning back?: Ecosystems over time have endured much disturbance, yet they tend to remain intact, a characteristic we call resilience. Though many systems have been lost and destroyed, for systems that remain physically intact, there is debate as to whether changing temperatures will result in shifts or collapses. Wernburg et al. show that extreme warming of a temperate kelp forest off Australia resulted not only in its collapse, but also in a shift in community composition that brought about an increase in herbivorous tropical fishes that prevent the reestablishment of kelp. Thus, many systems may not be resilient to the rapid climate change that we face. Science , this issue p. 169

In subtropical ocean gyres, anticyclonic eddies increase surface nutrient injection and primary production during winter.

Gridded SST products developed particularly for offshore regions are increasingly being applied close to the coast for biogeographical applications. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the dangers of doing so through a comparison of reprocessed MODIS Terra and Pathfinder v5.2 SSTs, both at 4 km resolution, with instrumental in situ temperatures taken within 400 m from the coast. We report large biases of up to +6°C in places between satellite-derived and in situ climatological temperatures for 87 sites spanning the entire ca . 2 700 km of the South African coastline. Although biases are predominantly warm (i.e. the satellite SSTs being higher), smaller or even cold biases also appear in places, especially along the southern and western coasts of the country. We also demonstrate the presence of gradients in temperature biases along shore-normal transects — generally SSTs extracted close to the shore demonstrate a smaller bias with respect to the in situ temperatures. Contributing towards the magnitude of the biases are factors such as SST data source, proximity to the shore, the presence/absence of upwelling cells or coastal embayments. Despite the generally large biases, from a biogeographical perspective, species distribution retains a correlative relationship with underlying spatial patterns in SST, but in order to arrive at a causal understanding of the determinants of biogeographical patterns we suggest that in shallow, inshore marine habitats, temperature is best measured directly.

A unique feature of the subtropical South Indian Ocean is the existence of anticyclonic eddies that have higher chlorophyll concentrations than cyclonic eddies. Off Western Australia, this anomalous behavior is related to the seeding of anticyclonic eddies with shelf water enriched in phytoplankton biomass and nutrients. Further off-shore, two mechanisms have been suggested to explain the eddy/chlorophyll relationship: (i) eddies originating from the Australian coast maintain their chlorophyll anomaly while propagating westward; and (ii) eddy-induced Ekman upwelling (downwelling) enhances (dampens) nutrient supply in anticyclonic (cyclonic) eddies. Here we describe the relationship between eddies and surface chlorophyll within the South Indian Ocean, and discuss possible mechanisms to explain the anomalous behavior in light of new analyses performed using satellite chlorophyll data. We show that anticyclonic eddies exhibit higher surface chlorophyll concentration than cyclonic eddies across the entire South Indian Ocean basin (from 20 to 28°S), particularly in winter. Using Self Organizing Maps we analyze the chlorophyll patterns within anticyclonic eddies and cyclonic eddies and highlight their complexity. Our analysis suggests that multiple mechanisms may underlie the observed eddy/chlorophyll relationship. Based on Argo float data, we postulate the relationship may be partly related to seasonal adjustment of the mixed layer depth within eddies. Deeper mixing in anticyclonic eddies is expected to enhance nutrient supply to the mixed layer, while shallower mixing in cyclonic eddies is expected to reduce it. This could explain why the observed winter surface chlorophyll bloom is stronger in anticyclonic eddies than in cyclonic eddies.

Despite increasing awareness of large‐scale climate‐driven distribution shifts in the marine environment, no study has linked rapid ocean warming to a shift in distribution and consequent hybridization of a marine fish species. This study describes rapid warming (0.8 °C per decade) in the coastal waters of the Angola‐Benguela Frontal Zone over the last three decades and a concomitant shift by a temperature sensitive coastal fish species (Argyrosomus coronus) southward from Angola into Namibia. In this context, rapid shifts in distribution across Economic Exclusive Zones will complicate the management of fishes, particularly when there is a lack of congruence in the fisheries policy between nations. Evidence for recent hybridization betweenA. coronusand a congener,A. inodorus, indicate that the rapid shift in distribution ofA. coronushas placed adults of the two species in contact during their spawning events. Ocean warming may therefore revert established species isolation mechanisms and alter the evolutionary history of fishes. While the consequences of the hybridization on the production of the resource remain unclear, this will most likely introduce additional layers of complexity to their management.