This study reports the changes in glacier extent and streamflow similar to many Himalayan studies, but takes the unusual step of also linking these to downstream land use changes in Kashmir Valley. This study assessed changes in the area, snout, and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of four parts of the Kolahoi Glacier using earth observation data from 1962 to 2018. Changes in the discharge of the two streams flowing out from Kolahoi Glacier into the Jhelum basin were also assessed between 1972 and 2018. Additionally, satellite data was used to track the downstream land system changes concerning agriculture, orchards, and built-up areas between 1980 and 2018. This analysis suggested a cumulative deglaciation of 23.6% at a rate of 0.42% per year from 1962 to 2018. The snout of two larger glaciers, G1 and G2, retreated at a rate of 18.3 m a⁻¹ and 16.4 m a⁻¹, respectively, from 1962 to 2018, although the rate of recession accelerated after 2000. Our analysis also suggested the upward shift of ELA by ≈120 m. The streamflows measured at five sites showed statistically significant depleting trends that have been a factor in forcing extensive land system changes downstream. Although the area under agriculture in Lidder watershed shrunk by 39%, there was a massive expansion of 176% and 476% in orchards and built-up areas, respectively, from 1980 to 2018. The conversion of irrigation-intensive agriculture lands (rice paddy) to less water-intensive orchards is attributed to economic considerations and depleting streamflow.

Kashmir Valley has been witnessing erratic snowfall events in recent autumns which severely impacted apple orchards and harvests. Here, we combine remotely sensed data and field observations to map snowfall distribution and snow depths during the recent snowfall events in November 2018 and November 2019. Besides, we used ERA-5 reanalysis climate datasets to investigate the causes of these erratic snowfall events, pointing to an early arrival of Western Disturbances (WD) to the area. Analysis of these untimely snowfall episodes indicates that snow depths varied from 5–122 cm and 31–152 cm during the 2018 and 2019 snowfall events, respectively. In turn, satellite data analysis reveals that the apple orchards cover roughly 9.8% (1329 km²) of the entire surface of Kashmir Valley, out of which 32.6% were mildly to severely damaged by snow. The areas in South Kashmir suffered the most from the untimely snowfall with an area affected estimated to ~264 km², followed by North Kashmir (~151 km²) and Central Kashmir (18 km²). The snowfall caused substantial harvest losses in orchards ranging from 4–50% with an average of ~35%. The geopotential analysis from the ERA-5 dataset provides insights into the synoptic weather patterns leading to the snowfall events and point to a trough in the high-troposphere (200 mb), along with a col at lower levels (850 mb) over the Kashmir Valley from November 2–5, 2018. The lower levels (850 mb) experienced intense cyclonic circulation which favored advection of moisture from the Arabian Sea during the November 6–7, 2019, snowfall event. The large economic losses related to early arrival of WD led to a virtual grounding of the horticultural sector in 2018 and 2019. Therefore, more baseline research is critically needed along with a comprehensive evaluation of the suitability of horticulture as an economically viable sector that is being promoted over the Kashmir region, also under climate change.

Glaciers in the Himalayan arc are receding rapidly in the eastern and western parts as compared to other regions. Contrararily, the glaciers in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh are comparatively stable. The differential retreat could be due to various climatic, topographic, and geologic influences. The use of multi-source remotely sensed imagery from open-source platforms and the GlabTop model has been discussed in this paper. This paper draws insights from a recently published paper which details the recession of 87 glaciers in the Trans Himalayan region of Ladakh using remote sensing data [1]. The use of remote sensing data from USGS and Planet Labs for assessing glacier area changes, frontal retreat, debris cover, topographic characteristics, and comparison with existing inventories has been discussed in this study. The geodetic mass changes have been assessed using SRTM and TanDEM-X of 2000 and 2012 respectively. The use of remotely sensed data discussed in this article will help glaciologists to better characterize and understand the glacier recession in the region. The GlabTop model has been used to simulate proglacial lake expansion to understand glacier-bed overdeepenings of four glaciers in the region. The GlabTop simulations will help disaster managers to better quantify the vulnerability and risk of downstream population and infrastructure to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).