This study examines long-term ensemble projections for historical and future climate conditions over 5,000 years using an atmospheric global circulation model. The future climate condition is assumed as a constant +4K in the global mean temperature from before the Industrial Revolution (c.a. 1850), and the historical climate condition is perturbed by observed sea surface temperature (SST) error. A set of ensemble experiments assesses the impact of low probability phenomena, such as tropical cyclones and storm surge in comparison with conventional time-slice experiments. Future changes in storm surge will be severe at 15–35°N in the northern hemisphere, especially around the East Asia region. In addition, Future changes in regional storm surges targeting Tokyo and Osaka Bays project 0.3–0.45 m increase of storm surge height with a 100-year return period.

With continued population growth, increasing staple crop production is necessary. However, in dryland areas, this is negatively affected by various abiotic stresses, such as drought and salinity. The field screening of 10 improved genetic lines of pear millet originating from African dryland areas was conducted based on a set of agrobiological traits (i.e., germination rate, plant density, plant maturity rate, forage, and grain yields) in order to understand plant growth and its yield potential responses under saline environments. Our findings demonstrated that genotype had a significant impact on the accumulation of green biomass (64.4% based on two-way ANOVA), while salinity caused reduction in grain yield value. HHVBC Tall and IP 19586 were selected as the best-performing and high-yielding genotypes. HHVBC Tall is a dual purpose (i.e., forage and grain) line which produced high grain yields on marginal lands, with soil salinization up to electrical conductivity (EC) 6–8 dS m⁻¹ (approximately 60–80 mM NaCl). Meanwhile, IP 19586, grown under similar conditions, showed a rapid accumulation of green biomass with a significant decrease in grain yield. Both lines were tolerant to drought and sensitive to high salinity (above 200 mM NaCl). The threshold salinity of HHVBC Tall calculated at the seedling stage was lower than that of IP 19586. Seedling viability of these lines was affected by oxidative stress and membrane peroxidation, and they had decreased chlorophyll and carotenoid biosynthesis. This study demonstrated that ionic stress is more detrimental for the accumulation of green and dry biomass, in combination with increasing the proline and malonic dialdehyde (MDA) contents of both best-performing pearl millet lines, as compared with osmotic stress.

Future climate change and its impact on drought is critical for Uzbekistan, located in Central Asia, the world’s largest arid zone. This study examines the evolving intensity of climate change and drought events using multi-model ensembles (MMEs) derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) simulated under the Representative Concentration Pathway and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP and SSP) scenarios. The projections show different rates of increase in temperature and precipitation under the RCPs and SSPs. Projected temperature increases are expected to reach up to 2–2.5 °C under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0, by mid-century. By 2080–2099, an increase is projected of 2–3 °C in monthly mean temperatures throughout the year (SSP1-2.6), and a more pronounced increase in summer up to 3–4 °C (SSP2-4.5) and 4–6 °C (SSP3-7.0), with a marked contrast in conditions between the mountainous and desert regions of Uzbekistan. Regional changes in precipitation over the study periods show relatively little variability, except for FD, where notable trends are found. Under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5, the increase in precipitation is relatively modest, whereas the changes in SSP3-7.0 are more substantial, with some regions experiencing variations of up to 10–20 mm per period. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), calculated based on the projected temperature and precipitation, provides an estimate of future drought trends. Our results show increasing aridity under all scenarios by mid-century, with longer-term projections indicating stabilization around different SPEI values by 2100: RCP2.6 and SSP1-1.9 stabilize around −1.0; RCP4.5, RCP6.0, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 stabilize around −1.5; while RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios project values of −2 or less by 2100. Notable differences in the SPEI index are found between lowland and foothill regions. In view of Uzbekistan’s heavy reliance on agriculture and irrigation, which are the sectors that are expected to be mostly affected by climate change, our study provides a scientific basis for informed policy decision-making. This includes various aspects such as planning and management water resources, as well as the broader socioeconomic development of the country.

Climate change and shrinking of the Aral Sea have significantly affected the region’s temperature variations. Observed interannual changes in Uzbekistan’s air temperature compared to the duration of synoptic weather types (SWT) in Middle Asia were analyzed. Nonparametric Mann–Kendall statistical test and climate trends coefficients were used to identify trend characteristics of observed temperature from 1961–2016 to the baseline period of 1961–1990. The results showed increasing temperature trends average to 1 °C in warm and cold half years over Uzbekistan. The 1991–2016 decadal temperature trend ranged from 0.25 °C/decade in the northwest to 0.52 °C/decade in the center, especially pronounced in the oasis and Aral Sea zones. There were also significant changes in the structure of regional SWT. The main difference in the structure of SWT in Middle Asia relative to the baseline period was expressed in a decrease of cold mass invasion duration from 113.4 to 76.1 days and an increase in low-gradient baric field duration from 65.8 to 134.6 days. The process of anthropogenic warming, which began in Uzbekistan in the 1960s of the twentieth century, has accelerated from the mid-1970s with a higher mean annual air temperature than the baseline period’s climate normals (1961–1990) and is associated with changes in the regional SWT over Middle Asia.

An integrated multi-model approach to predict future land cover in the Da River Basin in Vietnam was developed to analyze future impacts of land cover change on streamflow and sediment load. The framework applied a land cover change model and an ecological model to forecast future land cover and leaf area index (LAI) based on the historical land cover change, and these data were then used in a calibrated distributed hydrological model and a new sediment rating curve model to assess hydrological changes and sediment load in the river basin. Results showed that deforestation would likely continue, and that forest area would decrease by up to 21.3% by 2050, while croplands and shrublands would replace forests and increase by over 11.7% and 10%, respectively. Streamflow and sediment load would generally increase due to deforestation in the Da River Basin in the 2050s, in both the wet and dry seasons, but especially in the wet season. In this case, the predicted annual sediment load was expected to increase by about 9.7% at the Lai Chau station. As deforestation increased, sediment load and reservoir siltation could likely shorten the lifespan of the recently constructed Son La Reservoir. The applied integrated modeling approach provides a comprehensive evaluation of land/forest cover change effects on the river discharge and sediment load, which is essential in understanding human impacts on the river environment and in designing watershed management policies.