Nonstationary behavior of recent climate increases concerns among hydrologists about the currently used design rainfall estimates. Therefore, it is necessary to perform an analysis to confirm stationarity or detect nonstationarity of extreme rainfall data to derive accurate design rainfall estimates for infrastructure projects and flood mitigation works. An extreme rainfall nonstationarity analysis of the storm durations from 6 min to 72 h was conducted in this study using data from the Melbourne Regional Office station in Melbourne, Australia, for the period of 1925–2010. Stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models were constructed to obtain intensity–frequency–duration relationships for these storm durations using data from two time periods, 1925–1966 and 1967–2010, after identifying the year 1967 as the change-point year. Design rainfall estimates of the stationary models for the two periods were compared to identify the possible changes. Nonstationary GEV models, which were developed for...

The increased frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall events due to anthropogenic climate change, and decadal and multi-decadal climate variability question the stationary climate assumption. The possible violation of stationarity in climate can cause erroneous estimation of design rainfalls derived from extreme rainfall frequency analysis. This may result in significant consequences for infrastructure and flood protection projects since design rainfalls are essential input for design of these projects. Therefore, there is a need to conduct frequency analysis of extreme rainfall events in the context of non-stationarity, when non-stationarity is present in extreme rainfall events. A methodology consisting of threshold selection, extreme rainfall data (peaks over threshold data) construction, trend and non-stationarity analysis, and stationary and non-stationary generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) models was developed in this paper to investigate trends and non-stationarity in extreme rainfall events, and potential impacts of climate change and variability on intensity–frequency–duration (IFD) relationships. The methodology developed was successfully implemented using rainfall data from an observation station in Melbourne (Australia) for storm durations ranging from 6 min to 72 h. Although statistically significant trends were detected in extreme rainfall data for storm durations of 30 min, 3 h and 48 h, statistical non-stationarity tests and non-stationary GPD models did not indicate non-stationarity for these storm durations and other storm durations. It was also found that the stationary GPD models were capable of fitting extreme rainfall data for all storm durations. Furthermore, the IFD analysis showed that urban flash flood producing hourly rainfall intensities have increased over time.

Meeting water demands is a critical pillar for sustaining normal human living standards, industry evolution and agricultural growth. The main obstacles for developing countries in arid regions include unplanned urbanisation and limited water resources. Locating and constructing dams is a strategic priority of countries to preserve and store water. Recent advances in remote sensing, geographic information system (GIS), and machine learning (ML) techniques provide valuable tools for producing a dam site suitability map (DSSM). In this research, a hybrid GIS decision-making technique supported by an ML algorithm was developed to identify the most appropriate location to construct a new dam for Sharjah, one of the major cities in the United Arab Emirates. Nine thematic layers have been considered to prepare the DSSM, including precipitation, drainage stream density, geomorphology, geology, curve number, total dissolved solid elevation, slope and major fracture. The weights of the thematic layers were determined through the analytical hierarchy process supported by several ML techniques, where the best attempted ML technique was the random forest method, with an accuracy of 76%. Precipitation and drainage stream density were the most influential factors affecting the DSSM. The developed DSSM was validated using existing dams across the study area, where the DSSM provides an accuracy of 83% for dams located in the high and moderate zones. Three major sites were identified as suitable locations for constructing new dams in Sharjah. The approach adopted in this study can be applied for any other location globally to identify potential dam construction sites.