Reducing the prevalence of depression is a public health challenge for the 21st century. Depression occurs in up to a quarter of general practice attendees,
1 relapse 10 years from first presentation is frequent,
2 and both residual disability and premature mortality are common.
3 Low socioeconomic status
4,5 and female sex
6 are the 2 most consistently identified risk factors. Socioeconomic risk factors include low income and financial strain,
4 unemployment,
4 work stress,
7 social isolation,
8 and poor housing.
5 Other factors, such as family history of depression, play a part.
9 Additional risk factors identified in adult general practice populations are negative life events, poor physical health, poor marital or other interpersonal relationships, a partner or spouse's poor health, and problems with alcohol.
10 Poor social support, loneliness, and physical disability appear to be particular risks for older adults.
11-13 Estimating overall risk across a range of likely risk factors is essential in efforts to prevent depression. However, effective strategies for prevention are hindered by lack of evidence about the combined effect of known risk factors. Our objectives were to develop a risk algorithm for the onset of major depression in European general practice attendees and test its predictive power in a non-European setting. We modeled our approach on risk indexes for cardiovascular disease,
14 which provide a percentage risk estimate over a given period.