Thyroid cancer incidence is increasing worldwide. Causes are highly debated. Thyroid cancer increase has been associated to socioeconomic status, better access to healthcare and rising use of thyroid imaging. Therefore, the rise could be apparent because of the useless identification of a large reservoir of subclinical papillary lesions that will never affect patient health (overdiagnosis).However, not all epidemiological and clinical data support this hypothesis. The increasing number of large tumors, the increasing thyroid cancer-related mortality in spite of earlier treatment and the changes in thyroid cancer molecular profile suggest a true increase. Recently increased and thyroid-specific environmental carcinogens could be responsible, such as radiation (mostly medical radiation), increased iodine intake and chronic lymphocytic thyroiditis and environmental pollutants such as nitrates, heavy metals and other compounds largely used in the industrialized society. Possible mechanisms await further investigation. The increased incidence of thyroid cancer is the likely result of two coexisting processes: increased detection (apparent increase) and increased number of cases (true increase) due to unrecognized thyroid-specific carcinogens.To identify causal factors and to differentiate stationary cancers from those that will progress are major urgent requirements for both clinical and scientific purposes.

The steadily increasing incidence of thyroid cancer has been attributed mostly to more sensitive thyroid nodule screening. However, various environmental factors, such as those associated with volcanic areas, cannot be excluded as risk factors. We evaluated thyroid cancer incidence in Sicily, which has a homogenous population and a province (Catania) that includes the Mt Etna volcanic area. In a register-based epidemiological survey, we collected all incident thyroid cancers in Sicily from January 1, 2002, through December 31, 2004. The age-standardized incidence rate for the world population (ASR _w ) was calculated and expressed as the number of thyroid cancer diagnoses per 100 000 residents per year. The association of thyroid cancer incidence rate with sex, age, tumor histotype, and various environmental factors was evaluated by modeling the variation of the ASR _w . All statistical tests were two-sided. In 2002–2004, 1950 incident thyroid cancers were identified in Sicily (among women, ASR _w = 17.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 16.9 to 18.7; and among men, ASR _w = 3.7, 95% CI = 3.3 to 4.1). Although the percentage of thyroid cancers that were microcarcinomas (ie, ≤10 mm) and ratio of men to women with thyroid cancer were similar in all nine Sicilian provinces, thyroid cancer incidence was statistically significantly higher in the province of Catania (among women, ASR _w = 31.7, 95% CI = 29.1 to 34.3; and among men, ASR _w = 6.4, 95% CI = 5.2 to 7.5) than in the rest of Sicily (among women, ASR _w = 14.1, 95% CI = 13.2 to 15.0; and among men, ASR _w = 3.0, 95% CI = 2.6 to 3.4) (all P values < .001). Incidence of papillary, but not follicular or medullary, cancers was statistically significantly increased in Catania province, and papillary tumors from patients in Catania more frequently carried the BRAF V600E gene mutation (55 [52%] of 106 tumors) than tumors from patients elsewhere in Sicily (68 [33%] of 205 tumors) (relative risk = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.0 to 2.8, P = .02). Cancer incidence was statistically significantly lower in rural areas than in urban areas of Sicily ( P = .003). No association with mild iodine deficiency or industrial installations was found. Levels of many elements (including boron, iron, manganese, and vanadium) in the drinking water of Catania province often exceeded maximum admissible concentrations, in contrast to water in the rest of Sicily. Residents of Catania province with its volcanic region appear to have a higher incidence of papillary thyroid cancer than elsewhere in Sicily.

Context: Treatment and follow-up of patients thyroidectomized for differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) mainly depends on the identification of the patient's risk of recurrence. Thyroglobulin (Tg) is the most important marker of persistent/recurrent disease. The recent introduction of a new, more sensitive Tg measurement allows for the early detection of the disease by measuring the basal (under l-T4 therapy) serum Tg level without TSH stimulation. Objective: The goal of this study is to identify the basal serum Tg threshold value that indicates recurrent disease by using a second-generation Tg assay. Design and Patients: A continuous series of 425 DTC patients, all thyroidectomized and treated with 131I after surgery and having basal Tg of no more than 1.0 ng/ml, negative anti-Tg antibodies, and a recombinant human TSH-stimulated Tg measurement was retrospectively analyzed. Setting: The study took place at an academic hospital. Results: The most accurate basal Tg value for predicting the presence of recurrent/residual disease was more than 0.15 ng/ml (sensitivity 87%, specificity 91%, negative predictive value 98.6%, and positive predictive value 47.8%). When the basal Tg level was no more than 0.15 ng/ml, the risk of disease presence was very low, even in patients classified at an intermediate or high risk. In contrast, when the basal Tg level was more than 0.15 ng/ml, the percentage of recurrent disease was relatively high (12.5% or one in eight cases) in low-risk patients. Conclusions: Basal Tg, measured using a second-generation Tg assay allows for the identification of DTC patients who are likely to remain disease free with great accuracy. This simple measurement, therefore, may be sufficient to assess the risk-adapted management of DTC patients.

Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is an indolent neoplasia, often asymptomatic and discovered incidentally. Some PTMCs, however, exhibit a more aggressive behavior, frequently recur, and can even cause cancer-related death. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of PTMCs and the associated risk factors at presentation in 2 thyroid cancer registries from areas with different genetic and environmental characteristics. We conducted a retrospective, observational study of all incident cases of PTMCs recorded over a 5-year period in the Sicilian Regional Registry for Thyroid Cancer (SRRTC) and in the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) US registry. The study took place at an academic hospital. The incidence of PTMCs was much higher in Sicily (1777 PTMC diagnosed in 2002-2006; age-standardized incidence rate for the world population [ASRw] = 5.8 per 100 000) than in the United States (14 423 PTMC in the period 2004-2008; ASRw = 2.9 per 100 000). Within the SRRTC, a significantly higher incidence was observed in the volcanic area (ASRw = 10.4 vs 4.6 in the rest of Sicily). In Sicily, the female to male ratio was higher, and PTMC patients were younger. In both registries, a significant inverse correlation was observed between age and tumor size. Young patients (≤45 y) exhibited a higher frequency of nodal metastases. PTMC incidence is twice as high in Sicily compared with the United States, and within Sicily, the incidence is twice as high in the volcanic area. In young patients, PTMCs are larger at presentation and exhibit more risk factors. In both registries, more than 35% of PTMCs exhibited 2 or more risk factors, suggesting that they may require surgery and follow-up similar to that of larger carcinomas.