The Vietnamese Mekong Delta was formed by rapid transgression during the second half of the Holocene by deposition of mainly unconsolidated, fine-grained (clayey) sediments undergoing high compaction rates. The natural subsidence can seriously impact the already vulnerable delta plain as its low elevation exposes the delta to global sea level rise, flooding, salinization. Human activities such as groundwater pumping, infrastructural loading, sand mining and dam construction have exacerbated the effects of natural consolidation. Here we present a novel modeling study that has allowed to reproduce the formation and evolution of the Mekong delta over the past 4000 years. Using an adaptive finite-element mesh, the model properly simulates accretion and natural consolidation characterizing the delta evolution. Large soil grain motion and the delayed dissipation of pore-water overpressure are accounted for. We find that natural compaction of Holocene deposits following delta evolution exceeds predicted values of absolute sea level rise. The unprecedented high rates (up to ~20 mm/yr) threaten the lower delta plain with permanent inundation and inevitably reduce the designed service life of flood defense structures along the coast. Total subsidence and sediment delivery to the delta plain will determine its future elevation and vulnerability to relative sea level rise.

Although the beginning of reservoir geomechanics dates back to the late 1960s, only recently stochastical geomechanical modelling has been introduced into the general framework of reservoir operational planning. In this study, the ensemble smoother (ES) algorithm, i.e., an ensemble‐based data assimilation method, is employed to reduce the uncertainty of the constitutive parameters characterizing the geomechanical model of an underground gas storage (UGS) field situated in the upper Adriatic sedimentary basin (Italy), the Lombardia UGS. The model is based on a nonlinear transversely isotropic stress‐strain constitutive law and is solved by 3‐D finite elements. The Lombardia UGS experiences seasonal pore pressure change caused by fluid extraction/injection leading to land settlement/upheaval. The available observations consist of vertical and horizontal time‐lapse displacements accurately measured by persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) on RADARSAT scenes acquired between 2003 and 2008. The positive outcome of preliminary tests on simplified cases has supported the use of the ES to jointly assimilate vertical and horizontal displacements. The ES approach is shown to effectively reduce the spread of the uncertain parameters, i.e., the Poisson's ratio, the ratio between the horizontal and vertical Young and shear moduli, and the ratio between the virgin loading (I cycle) and unloading/reloading (II cycle) compressibility. The outcomes of the numerical simulations point out that the updated parameters depend on the assimilated measurement locations as well as the error associated to the PSI measurements. The parameter estimation may be improved by taking into account possible model and/or observation biases along with the use of an assimilation approach, e.g., the Iterative ensemble smoother, more appropriate for nonlinear problems.

The resilience of marsh ecosystems to expected sea-level rise is determined by a complex interplay of organic and inorganic sedimentation dynamics. Marshes have formed over past centuries to millennia and consist of extremely reactive bodies with sediments that can experience high compaction. Here we provide a quantification of the degree to which the past history of a salt marsh can affect its long-term evolution. A dataset of elevation dynamics was established in the Venice Lagoon (Italy) and interpreted using a physics-based model of deposition and large consolidation of newly deposited material. We found that the fate of low-lying tidal landscapes over the next century of accelerating sea-level rise will be highly dependent on compaction of soft, recently deposited soils. Our results imply that a sedimentation rate twice the present rate will be needed to counterbalance the expected sea-level rise.

Over the past decades coastal marshes around the world have declined dramatically. Their deterioration is controlled by scarcity of sediments, erosion and accelerated rise of relative sea-level. The feedbacks between these processes control marsh evolution and determine their long-term survivability. Aggradation of a marsh to keep pace with relative sea-level rise mainly depends on the interplay between sedimentation and autocompaction, but their interactions are severely understudied. Here we present an in-situ loading experiment applied in the Venice Lagoon, Italy, to assess long-term autocompaction, with subsurface displacements and pressure monitored during loading cycles, up to ∼40 kN applied on a ∼4 m² surface. Two identical experiments carried out in inorganic and organic soil-dominated marshes provided unique insights on the spatio-temporal subsurface dynamics. The large differences in behavior and maximum compaction (6 vs 32 mm) underscore the crucial role of autocompaction and soil heterogeneity when predicting the fate of coastal marshes worldwide.