Mountain permafrost is invisible, and mapping it is still a challenge. Available permafrost distribution maps often overestimate the permafrost extent and include large permafrost-free areas in their permafrost zonation. In addition, the representation of the lower belt of permafrost consisting of ice-rich features such as rock glaciers or ice-rich talus slopes can be challenging. These problems are caused by considerable differences in genesis and thermal characteristics between ice-poor permafrost, occurring for example in rock walls, and ice-rich permafrost. While ice-poor permafrost shows a strong correlation of ground temperature with elevation and potential incoming solar radiation, ice-rich ground does not show such a correlation. Instead, the distribution of ice-rich ground is controlled by gravitational processes such as the relocation of ground ice by permafrost creep or by ground ice genesis from avalanche deposits or glacierets covered with talus. We therefore developed a mapping method which distinguishes between ice-poor and ice-rich permafrost and tested it for the entire Swiss Alps. For ice-poor ground we found a linear regression formula based on elevation and potential incoming solar radiation which predicts borehole ground temperatures at multiple depths with an accuracy higher than 0.6 ∘C. The zone of ice-rich permafrost was defined by modelling the deposition zones of alpine mass wasting processes. This dual approach allows the cartographic representation of permafrost-free belts, which are bounded above and below by permafrost. This enables a high quality of permafrost modelling, as is shown by the validation of our map. The dominating influence of the two rather simple connected factors, elevation (as a proxy for mean annual air temperature) and solar radiation, on the distribution of ice-poor permafrost is significant for permafrost modelling in different climate conditions and regions. Indicating temperatures of ice-poor permafrost and distinguishing between ice-poor and ice-rich permafrost on a national permafrost map provides new information for users.
Mountain permafrost, constituting 30% of the global permafrost area, is sensitive to climate change and strongly impacts mountain ecosystems and communities. This study examines 21st century permafrost warming in European mountains using decadal ground temperature data from sixty-four boreholes in the Alps, Scandinavia, Iceland, Sierra Nevada and Svalbard. During 2013–2022, warming rates at 10 metres depth exceed 1 °C dec−1 in cases, generally surpassing previous estimates because of accelerated warming and the use of a comprehensive data set. Substantial permafrost warming occurred at cold and ice-poor bedrock sites at high elevations and latitudes, at rates comparable to surface air temperature increase. In contrast, latent heat effects in ice-rich ground near 0 °C reduce warming rates and mask important changes of mountain permafrost substrates. The warming patterns observed are consistent across all sites, depths and time periods. For the coming decades, the propagation of permafrost warming to greater depths is largely predetermined already.
1 October 2015 in Cold Regions Science and Technology