Many studies have attempted to predict chlorophyll-a concentrations using multiple regression models and validating them with a hold-out technique. In this study commonly used machine learning models, such as Support Vector Regression, Bagging, Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Long–Short-Term Memory (LSTM), are used to build a new model to predict chlorophyll-a concentrations in the Nakdong River, Korea. We employed 1–step ahead recursive prediction to reflect the characteristics of the time series data. In order to increase the prediction accuracy, the model construction was based on forward variable selection. The fitted models were validated by means of cumulative learning and rolling window learning, as opposed to the hold–out technique. The best results were obtained when the chlorophyll-a concentration was predicted by combining the RNN model with the rolling window learning method. The results suggest that the selection of explanatory variables and 1–step ahead recursive prediction in the machine learning model are important processes for improving its prediction performance.

This study aims to compare the classification performance of statistical models on highly imbalanced kidney data. The health examination cohort database provided by the National Health Insurance Service in Korea is utilized to build models with various machine learning methods. The glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is used to diagnose chronic kidney disease (CKD). It is calculated using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease method and classified into five stages (1, 2, 3A and 3B, 4, and 5). Different CKD stages based on the estimated GFR are considered as six classes of the response variable. This study utilizes two representative generalized linear models for classification, namely, multinomial logistic regression (multinomial LR) and ordinal logistic regression (ordinal LR), as well as two machine learning models, namely, random forest (RF) and autoencoder (AE). The classification performance of the four models is compared in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, and F1-Measure. To find the best model that classifies CKD stages correctly, the data are divided into a 10-fold dataset with the same rate for each CKD stage. Results indicate that RF and AE show better performance in accuracy than the multinomial and ordinal LR models when classifying the response variable. However, when a highly imbalanced dataset is modeled, the accuracy of the model performance can distort the actual performance. This occurs because accuracy is high even if a statistical model classifies a minority class into a majority class. To solve this problem in performance interpretation, we not only consider accuracy from the confusion matrix but also sensitivity, specificity, precision, and F-1 measure for each class. To present classification performance with a single value for each model, we calculate the macro-average and micro-weighted values for each model. We conclude that AE is the best model classifying CKD stages correctly for all performance indices.

The purpose of this study is to construct statistical models for building damage from natural disasters and analyze the regional pattern of the damage. Both a compound Poisson model (CPM) and a zero-inflated compound Poisson model (ZICPM) have been developed to explain the amount for building damage from natural disasters, while adopting disaster region, disaster duration, and disaster type as explanatory variables. After estimating the above two regression models with the mentioned variables, the ZICPM is verified to be more appropriate than the CPM for building damage data from 1994 to 2015. Results show that amount and probability of building damage for provincial area are much greater than those for the Seoul Metropolitan Area. Additionally, damage from typhoon and heavy rain is statistically proved to be greater than that from strong winds. Accordingly, detailed measures and strategies based on disaster region and type should be prepared to mitigate building damage.