Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.

There are a large number of geophysical processes affecting sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region. These processes operate on a large range of spatial and temporal scales and are observed in many other coastal regions worldwide. This, along with the outstanding number of long data records, makes the Baltic Sea a unique laboratory for advancing our knowledge on interactions between processes steering sea level and erosion in a climate change context. Processes contributing to sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea include the still ongoing viscoelastic response of the Earth to the last deglaciation, contributions from global and North Atlantic mean sea level changes, or contributions from wind waves affecting erosion and sediment transport along the subsiding southern Baltic Sea coast. Other examples are storm surges, seiches, or meteotsunamis which primarily contribute to sea level extremes. Such processes have undergone considerable variation and change in the past. For example, over approximately the past 50 years, the Baltic absolute (geocentric) mean sea level has risen at a rate slightly larger than the global average. In the northern parts of the Baltic Sea, due to vertical land movements, relative mean sea level has decreased. Sea level extremes are strongly linked to variability and changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation. The patterns and mechanisms contributing to erosion and accretion strongly depend on hydrodynamic conditions and their variability. For large parts of the sedimentary shores of the Baltic Sea, the wave climate and the angle at which the waves approach the nearshore region are the dominant factors, and coastline changes are highly sensitive to even small variations in these driving forces. Consequently, processes contributing to Baltic sea level dynamics and coastline change are expected to vary and to change in the future, leaving their imprint on future Baltic sea level and coastline change and variability. Because of the large number of contributing processes, their relevance for understanding global figures, and the outstanding data availability, global sea level research and research on coastline changes may greatly benefit from research undertaken in the Baltic Sea.

In situ observation of a buoys/moorings array and a model simulation were used to study the modulation of upper ocean thermal structure by Typhoon Kalmaegi in September 2014. The inertial period signals were significant after forcing of Kalmaegi, but they did not account for the net heat change. Removing the inertial period signals showed that the net thermal response biased to the right of Kalmaegi's track. Vertical mixing caused surface cooling with an inverted‐cone structure and subsurface warming with a double‐wing structure. Net upwelling converted the left wing of the subsurface warming to cooling, while net downwelling warmed the upper ocean in front and on both sides of the net upwelling zone. Horizontal advection was not as important as vertical mixing and vertical advection in modulating the thermal structure but contributed to the net outward advection of thermal anomaly in the mixed layer during the forced stage and also in the net along‐track recovery of subsurface anomaly during the relaxation stage. In general, horizontal and vertical advection modulated thermal anomalies in the upper ocean across a broader horizontal range and into the deeper ocean compared with the effect of vertical mixing. Our results indicate the need to consider both mixing and advection (rather than only mixing) when studying the effects of tropical cyclones on local ocean heat uptake and global ocean heat transport.

Bottom trawling represents the most widespread anthropogenic physical disturbance to seafloor sediments on continental shelves. While trawling-induced changes to benthic ecology have been widely recognized, the impacts on long-term organic carbon storage in marine sediments remains uncertain. Here we combined datasets of sediment and bottom trawling for a heavily trawled region, the North Sea, to explore their potential mutual dependency. A pattern emerges when comparing the surface sediment organic carbon-to-mud ratio with the trawling intensity represented by the multi-year averaged swept area ratio. The organic carbon-to-mud ratio exhibits a systematic response to trawling where the swept area ratio is larger than 1 yr⁻¹. Three-dimensional physical–biogeochemical simulation results suggest that the observed pattern is attributed to the correlated dynamics of mud and organic carbon during transport and redeposition in response to trawling. Both gain and loss of sedimentary organic carbon may occur in weakly trawled areas, whereas a net reduction of sedimentary organic carbon is found in intensely trawled grounds. Cessation of trawling allows restoration of sedimentary carbon stock and benthic biomass, but their recovery occurs at different timescales. Our results point out a need for management of intensely trawled grounds to enhance the CO₂ sequestration capacity in shelf seas.