The innate immune system processes pathogen-induced signals into cell fate decisions. How information is turned to decision remains unknown. By combining stochastic mathematical modelling and experimentation, we demonstrate that feedback interactions between the IRF3, NF-κB and STAT pathways lead to switch-like responses to a viral analogue, poly(I:C), in contrast to pulse-like responses to bacterial LPS. Poly(I:C) activates both IRF3 and NF-κB, a requirement for induction of IFNβ expression. Autocrine IFNβ initiates a JAK/STAT-mediated positive-feedback stabilising nuclear IRF3 and NF-κB in first responder cells. Paracrine IFNβ, in turn, sensitises second responder cells through a JAK/STAT-mediated positive feedforward pathway that upregulates the positive-feedback components: RIG-I, PKR and OAS1A. In these sensitised cells, the ‘live-or-die’ decision phase following poly(I:C) exposure is shorter—they rapidly produce antiviral responses and commit to apoptosis. The interlinked positive feedback and feedforward signalling is key for coordinating cell fate decisions in cellular populations restricting pathogen spread.

Omicron, the novel highly mutated SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC, Pango lineage B.1.1.529) was first collected in early November 2021 in South Africa. By the end of November 2021, it had spread and approached fixation in South Africa, and had been detected on all continents. We analyzed the exponential growth of Omicron over four-week periods in the two most populated of South Africa’s provinces, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, arriving at the doubling time estimates of, respectively, 3.3 days (95% CI: 3.2–3.4 days) and 2.7 days (95% CI: 2.3–3.3 days). Similar or even shorter doubling times were observed in other locations: Australia (3.0 days), New York State (2.5 days), UK (2.4 days), and Denmark (2.0 days). Log–linear regression suggests that the spread began in Gauteng around 11 October 2021; however, due to presumable stochasticity in the initial spread, this estimate can be inaccurate. Phylogenetics-based analysis indicates that the Omicron strain started to diverge between 6 October and 29 October 2021. We estimated that the weekly growth of the ratio of Omicron to Delta is in the range of 7.2–10.2, considerably higher than the growth of the ratio of Delta to Alpha (estimated to be in in the range of 2.5–4.2), and Alpha to pre-existing strains (estimated to be in the range of 1.8–2.7). High relative growth does not necessarily imply higher Omicron infectivity. A two-strain SEIR model suggests that the growth advantage of Omicron may stem from immune evasion, which permits this VOC to infect both recovered and fully vaccinated individuals. As we demonstrated within the model, immune evasion is more concerning than increased transmissibility, because it can facilitate larger epidemic outbreaks.

The novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC)-202012/01 (also known as B.1.1.7), first collected in United Kingdom on 20 September 2020, is a rapidly growing lineage that in January 2021 constituted 86% of all SARS-CoV-2 genomes sequenced in England. The VOC has been detected in 40 out of 46 countries that reported at least 50 genomes in January 2021. We have estimated that the replicative advantage of the VOC is in the range 1.83–2.18 [95% CI: 1.71–2.40] with respect to the 20A.EU1 variant that dominated in England in November 2020, and in range 1.65–1.72 [95% CI: 1.46–2.04] in Wales, Scotland, Denmark, and USA. As the VOC strain will likely spread globally towards fixation, it is important to monitor its molecular evolution. We have estimated growth rates of expanding mutations acquired by the VOC lineage to find that the L18F substitution in spike has initiated a fast growing VOC substrain. The L18F substitution is of significance because it has been found to compromise binding of neutralizing antibodies. Of concern are immune escape mutations acquired by the VOC: E484K, F490S, S494P (in the receptor binding motif of spike) and Q677H, Q675H (in the proximity of the polybasic cleavage site at the S1/S2 boundary). These mutants may hinder efficiency of existing vaccines and expand in response to the increasing after-infection or vaccine-induced seroprevalence.

NF-κB is a key transcription factor that regulates innate immune response. Its activity is tightly controlled by numerous feedback loops, including two negative loops mediated by NF-κB inducible inhibitors, IκBα and A20, which assure oscillatory responses, and by positive feedback loops arising due to the paracrine and autocrine regulation via TNFα, IL-1 and other cytokines. We study the NF-κB system of interlinked negative and positive feedback loops, combining bifurcation analysis of the deterministic approximation with stochastic numerical modeling. Positive feedback assures the existence of limit cycle oscillations in unstimulated wild-type cells and introduces bistability in A20-deficient cells. We demonstrated that cells of significant autocrine potential, i.e., cells characterized by high secretion of TNFα and its receptor TNFR1, may exhibit sustained cytoplasmic–nuclear NF-κB oscillations which start spontaneously due to stochastic fluctuations. In A20-deficient cells even a small TNFα expression rate qualitatively influences system kinetics, leading to long-lasting NF-κB activation in response to a short-pulsed TNFα stimulation. As a consequence, cells with impaired A20 expression or increased TNFα secretion rate are expected to have elevated NF-κB activity even in the absence of stimulation. This may lead to chronic inflammation and promote cancer due to the persistent activation of antiapoptotic genes induced by NF-κB. There is growing evidence that A20 mutations correlate with several types of lymphomas and elevated TNFα secretion is characteristic of many cancers. Interestingly, A20 loss or dysfunction also leaves the organism vulnerable to septic shock and massive apoptosis triggered by the uncontrolled TNFα secretion, which at high levels overcomes the antiapoptotic action of NF-κB. It is thus tempting to speculate that some cancers of deregulated NF-κB signaling may be prone to the pathogen-induced apoptosis.

The p53 transcription factor is a regulator of key cellular processes including DNA repair, cell cycle arrest, and apoptosis. In this theoretical study, we investigate how the complex circuitry of the p53 network allows for stochastic yet unambiguous cell fate decision-making. The proposed Markov chain model consists of the regulatory core and two subordinated bistable modules responsible for cell cycle arrest and apoptosis. The regulatory core is controlled by two negative feedback loops (regulated by Mdm2 and Wip1) responsible for oscillations, and two antagonistic positive feedback loops (regulated by phosphatases Wip1 and PTEN) responsible for bistability. By means of bifurcation analysis of the deterministic approximation we capture the recurrent solutions (i.e., steady states and limit cycles) that delineate temporal responses of the stochastic system. Direct switching from the limit-cycle oscillations to the “apoptotic” steady state is enabled by the existence of a subcritical Neimark—Sacker bifurcation in which the limit cycle loses its stability by merging with an unstable invariant torus. Our analysis provides an explanation why cancer cell lines known to have vastly diverse expression levels of Wip1 and PTEN exhibit a broad spectrum of responses to DNA damage: from a fast transition to a high level of p53 killer (a p53 phosphoform which promotes commitment to apoptosis) in cells characterized by high PTEN and low Wip1 levels to long-lasting p53 level oscillations in cells having PTEN promoter methylated (as in, e.g., MCF-7 cell line). Cancers are diseases of signaling networks. Transcription factor p53 is a pivotal node of a network that integrates a variety of stress signals and governs critical processes of DNA repair, cell cycle arrest, and apoptosis. Somewhat paradoxically, despite the fact that carcinogenesis is prevalently caused by p53 network malfunction, most of our knowledge about p53 signaling is based on cancer or immortalized cell lines. In this paper, we construct a mathematical model of intact p53 network to understand dynamics of non-cancerous cells and then dynamics of cancerous cells by introducing perturbations to the regulatory system. Cell fate decisions are enabled by the presence of interlinked feedback loops which give rise to a rich repertoire of behaviors. We explain and analyze by means of numerical simulations how the dynamical structure of the regulatory system allows for generating unambiguous single-cell fate decisions, also in the case when the cell population splits into an apoptotic and a surviving subpopulation. Perturbation analysis provides an explanation why cancer cell lines known to have vastly diverse expression levels of p53 regulators can exhibit a broad spectrum of responses to DNA damage.

We formulated a computational model for a MAPK signaling cascade downstream of the EGF receptor to investigate how interlinked positive and negative feedback loops process EGF signals into ERK pulses of constant amplitude but dose-dependent duration and frequency. A positive feedback loop involving RAS and SOS, which leads to bistability and allows for switch-like responses to inputs, is nested within a negative feedback loop that encompasses RAS and RAF, MEK, and ERK that inhibits SOS via phosphorylation. This negative feedback, operating on a longer time scale, changes switch-like behavior into oscillations having a period of 1 hour or longer. Two auxiliary negative feedback loops, from ERK to MEK and RAF, placed downstream of the positive feedback, shape the temporal ERK activity profile but are dispensable for oscillations. Thus, the positive feedback introduces a hierarchy among negative feedback loops, such that the effect of a negative feedback depends on its position with respect to the positive feedback loop. Furthermore, a combination of the fast positive feedback involving slow-diffusing membrane components with slower negative feedbacks involving faster diffusing cytoplasmic components leads to local excitation/global inhibition dynamics, which allows the MAPK cascade to transmit paracrine EGF signals into spatially non-uniform ERK activity pulses.