In this study, we analyzed the potential distribution of red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), in response to climate change in South Korea using CLIMEX, a species distribution model. We further attempted to evaluate the risk of the distribution/invasion and subsequent dispersion by considering climatic suitability, and functional characteristics of cities and covered cultivated areas. The climatic suitability has extended from the southern and coastal regions to inland regions due to climate change. The number of areas with EI (Ecoclimatic Index) values of more than 20 was 9 (12%) in the current climate; the value was assumed to increase to 23% (2040), 24% (2060), 42% (2080), and 62% (2100) from the South Korea coast to inland. We predicted that May to October would be the most active period in seven domestic high-habitation areas. We also analyzed the invasive risk of the red imported fire ant into covered domestic cultivation areas. Considering climatic suitability, we determined that Jeju, Pohang, Busan, Ulsan, Mokpo, and Gosan would be the most affected areas. This study can provide baseline data for the management of invasive species nationally and for regional control through predictions of the probability of settlement and direction of spread.

Potato tuber moth (Phthorimaea operculella), one of the leading potato-damaging pests in the world, has caused severe damage to potato production in South Korea after its introduction in the 1960s. This study surveyed the field occurrence of potato tuber moth in various sites in South Korea and used the results to validate the CLIMEX model, which spatiotemporally evaluated the potential distribution of potato tuber moths in response to climate change. The potato tuber moths were predicted to appear throughout the country, consistent with the results obtained for potato tuber moths in 96% of the field survey area. In addition, the climatic suitability of potato tuber moths will remain high due to climate change, suggesting a high risk for damage to seasonal potato production from seeding to harvesting. This spatiotemporal assessment of potato tuber moth distribution is expected to aid in establishing control strategies optimized based on time and place.