Health is the key to the aging problem, and “healthy aging” depicts the overall changing trends in the health of all elderly individuals in a society. Based on the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) data from the years 2002, 2005, 2008, 2011 and 2014, this article investigates whether there is a trend of “healthy aging” in China. A second-order factor model including four dimensions of physical health, functional status, mental health and social health was constructed to measure a latent variable, “Health_elders”. The further multigroup comparison results by structural equation modeling showed that, with the exception of 2008, the Health_elders in 2002, 2005, 2011 and 2014 displayed an upward trend, and the mean differences in Health_elders across five periods were significant. These findings indicate that on the whole, compared with older people in the past, older people in more recent periods are healthier, which supports the trend of “healthy aging” in China. In terms of cohorts, the average health levels of male, town-residing elderly populations are higher, while the healthy aging trends among female, rural and urban elderly populations are stronger. Moreover, the physical health levels of the 60–74 years-old cohort are decreasing, and the participation of elderly individuals in social activities is low, which are the weaknesses in the healthy aging process in China.

This paper explores and tests the impact of health and security on the participation of Chinese older people using data from the China Longitudinal Ageing Social Survey (CLASS) in 2014. Based on the framework of Active Ageing, the exogenous latent variables “health” and “security” are assumed to directly affect the endogenous latent variable “participation”, and indirectly affect it via mediating the function of “willingness”. The estimation results of the structural equation model show that health has a significant positive impact, while security has a significant negative impact on participation. In addition, health and security can significantly enhance the willingness of older people to participate. After the opposite effects of health and security are offset, their net effect on participation is generally negative. According to these empirical results, this paper concludes that the optimization of health coupled with the moderation of security level is more beneficial for promoting the participation of older people.

Previous studies have assumed that the volatility of exogenous shocks is constant, which can only measure the level effects of uncertain shocks. This article introduces the time-varying volatility model into a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (D.S.G.E.) model and uses the third-order perturbation method to identify and decompose the level and volatility effects of uncertainty shocks. Based on the results of empirical research in China, the effect of volatility shocks is different from that of level shocks: the effect of level shocks is direct and positive, and its impact is larger, while the effect of volatility shocks is indirect and negative, and its impact is smaller. This article also finds that the impact of uncertainty shocks will lead to economic stagnation, inflation, and the stagflation effect.

Title: The Macroeconomic Effect of Disaster Shocks in MRS-DSGE Models | Keywords: rare disaster risk, economic volatility, DSGE model, financial accelerator | Author: Shangfeng Zhang, Siwa Xu, Xiaohui Luo, Yue Sun, Yinan Yang, and Bing Xu