Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate and compare the impact of order imbalance on returns, liquidity and price volatility in agricultural futures markets on an intraday basis. The authors examine whether order imbalance is more powerful to explain variations in asset prices compared to other indicators of trading activity, particularly trading volume.Design/methodology/approach: Using Chicago Mercantile Exchange best bid best offer data, the impact of order imbalance is analyzed via regression analyses. The analyses are carried out for corn, wheat, soy, live cattle and lean hogs in March 2008 and March 2016.Findings: Results confirm the positive relation between order imbalance and returns as well as between order imbalance and price volatility as suggested by market microstructure models. Order imbalance, however, does not generally outperform trading volume as an explanatory variable.Practical implications: For some contracts, returns can be predicted using lagged order imbalance. This offers the opportunity to derive profitable trading strategies.Originality/value: This paper is one of the first attempts to explore the relationship between order imbalance and returns, liquidity and volatility for agricultural commodity futures on an intraday basis, accounting for the increased trading volume and for the high speed at which new information enters the market in an electronic trading environment.

Fens are organic sites that require drainage for agricultural use. Lowering the groundwater level leads to trade-offs between economic benefits and environmental impacts (i.e., CO₂ and nutrient emissions). To identify management options that are both environmentally and economically sustainable, a propaedeutic systematic analysis of the costs, income and profit of different land use and management systems on fenlands is necessary. This study provides an overview of the profitability, labor demand and comparative advantages of feasible management systems on German fenlands. Twenty management practices in four land use systems are analyzed. The results indicate that most management systems are profitable only with subsidies and payments for ecosystem services. In addition to sales revenue, these payments are indispensable to promote peat-saving agricultural practices on fenlands. Regarding the labor aspect, intensive management systems caused an increase in working hours per hectare, which may positively affect employment in rural areas. The calculations obtained in this study can be used as a basis for estimations of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation costs when management systems are associated with GHG emission values.

Recently, a Total Merit Index (RZ€) has been developed for German Holstein dairy cattle on the basis of margin in Euro. Our aim was to adjust this lifetime net merit for the dual-purpose German Black Pied cattle breed (DSN) accounting for beef production in addition to milk performance and fitness traits. We used the estimated breeding values of DSN sires and developed a breeding value for carcass weight and quality. Furthermore, we adjusted the German Holstein marginal profits per standard deviation, which are used to calculate the estimated breeding values, to DSN-specific values. The DSN Net Merit is the sum of the three sub-indices DSN Net Milk, DSN Net Fitness, and DSN Net Beef, which contribute to the DSN Net Merit with 52.84%, 43.43%, and 3.73%, respectively. The DSN Net Merit that was calculated for 33 DSN sires ranged between EUR −1114 and +709. The DSN Net Merit strongly correlates with the Total Merit Index. The implementation of the DSN Net Merit is useful for selection and mating decisions. Especially, the sub-index DSN Net Beef, which does not correlate with existing breeding values, can be used to maintain the dual-purpose character of DSN while modestly improving milk yield. The approach can be easily adapted to other dual-purpose breeds.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze market reflexivity in agricultural futures contracts with different maturities. To this end, we apply a four-dimensional Hawkes model to storable and non-storable agricultural commodities. We find market reflexivity for both storable and non-storable commodities. Reflexivity accounts for about 50 to 70% of the total trading activity. Differences between nearby and deferred contracts are less pronounced for non-storable than for storable commodities. We conclude that the co-existence of exogenous and endogenous price dynamics does not change qualitative characteristics of the price discovery process that have been observed earlier without the consideration of market reflexivity.

This study replicates the work of Bucheli et al. (2022) to evaluate the reliability and generalizability of their findings on the use of cubic spline methods in weather index insurance design in Eastern Germany. The study consists of two parts: a direct replication and an extended replication using different crops and another regional focus of yield data from Saxony, Germany. The direct replication confirms the original findings, while the extended replication reveals limitations in the model's risk reduction capacities. The gain in model fit, compared with daily temperature data, seems to be modest. It is questionable if an index insurance, which is solely based on temperature, will be considered as an attractive risk management tool, given the substantial basis risk that remains with farmers. The study highlights the importance of considering crop-specific risk profiles, regional climate, and agricultural conditions in insurance design. Moreover, our analysis highlights the relevance of FAIR (findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable) data for the performance of replication studies.