The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Cropland Data Layer (CDL) provides spatially explicit information about crop production area and has served as a prevalent data source for characterizing cropland change in the U.S. in the last decade. Understanding the accuracy of the CDL is paramount because of the reliance on it for management and policy making. This study examined the characteristics of the CDL from 2007 to 2017 using comparisons to other USDA datasets. The results showed when examining the cropland area for the same year, the CDL produced comparable trends with other datasets (R² > 0.95), but absolute area differed. The estimated area of cropland changes from 2007 to 2012, 2008 to 2012 and 2012 to 2017 varied from weak to moderate correlation between the CDL and the tabular data (R² = 0.005~0.63). Differences in area of cropland change varied widely between data sources with the CDL estimating much larger change area. A series of image processing techniques designed to improve the confidence in cropland change estimated using the CDL reduced the area of estimated cropland change. The techniques also, unexpectedly, lowered the correlation in change estimated between the CDL and the tabular datasets. Estimated land cover change area varied widely based on analyses applied and could reverse from increasing to declining area in cropland. Further analyses showed unlikely change scenarios when comparing different year combinations. The authors recommend the CDL only be used for land cover change analysis if the error can be estimated and is within change estimates.

A sustainable bioeconomy would require growing high-yielding bioenergy crops on marginal agricultural areas with minimal inputs. To determine the cost competitiveness and environmental sustainability of such production systems, reliably estimating biomass yield is critical. However, because marginal areas are often small and spread across the landscape, yield estimation using traditional approaches is costly and time-consuming. This paper demonstrates the (1) initial investigation of optical remote sensing for predicting perennial bioenergy grass yields at harvest using a linear regression model with the green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) derived from Sentinel-2 imagery and (2) evaluation of the model’s performance using data from five U.S. Midwest field sites. The linear regression model using midsummer GNDVI predicted yields at harvest with R² as high as 0.879 and a mean absolute error and root mean squared error as low as 0.539 Mg/ha and 0.616 Mg/ha, respectively, except for the establishment year. Perennial bioenergy grass yields may be predicted 152 days before the harvest date on average, except for the establishment year. The green spectral band showed a greater contribution for predicting yields than the red band, which is indicative of increased chlorophyll content during the early growing season. Although additional testing is warranted, this study showed a great promise for a remote sensing approach for forecasting perennial bioenergy grass yields to support critical economic and logistical decisions of bioeconomy stakeholders.

The production of advanced perennial bioenergy crops within marginal areas of the agricultural landscape is gaining interest due to its potential to sustainably produce feedstocks for biofuels and bioproducts while also improving the sustainability and resilience of commodity crop production. However, predicting the biomass yields of this production system is challenging because marginal areas are often relatively small and spread around agricultural fields and are typically associated with various abiotic conditions that limit crop production. Machine learning (ML) offers a viable solution as a biomass yield prediction tool because it is suited to predicting relationships with complex functional associations. The objectives of this study were to (1) evaluate the accuracy of commonly applied ML algorithms in agricultural applications for predicting the biomass yields of advanced switchgrass cultivars for bioenergy and ecosystem services and (2) determine the most important biomass yield predictors. Datasets on biomass yield, weather, land marginality, soil properties, and agronomic management were generated from three field study sites in two U.S. Midwest states (Illinois and Iowa) over three growing seasons. The ML algorithms evaluated in the study included random forests (RFs), gradient boosting machines (GBMs), artificial neural networks (ANNs), K-neighbors regressor (KNR), AdaBoost regressor (ABR), and partial least squares regression (PLSR). Coefficient of determination (R²) and mean absolute error (MAE) were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the tested algorithms. Results showed that the ensemble methods, RF (R² = 0.86, MAE = 0.62 Mg/ha), GBM (R² = 0.88, MAE = 0.57 Mg/ha), and GBM (R² = 0.78, MAE = 0.66 Mg/ha), were the most accurate in predicting biomass yields of the Independence, Liberty, and Shawnee switchgrass cultivars, respectively. This is in agreement with similar studies that apply ML to multi-feature problems where traditional statistical methods are less applicable and datasets used were considered to be relatively small for ANNs. Consistent with previous studies on switchgrass, the most important predictors of biomass yield included average annual temperature, average growing season temperature, sum of the growing season precipitation, field slope, and elevation. This study helps pave the way for applying ML as a management tool for alternative bioenergy landscapes where understanding agronomic and environmental performance of a multifunctional cropping system seasonally and interannually at the sub-field scale is critical.

Desert environments are sensitive to disturbances, and their functions and processes can take many years to recover. Detecting early signs of disturbance is critical, but developing such a capability for expansive remote desert regions is challenging. Using a variogram and 15-cm resolution Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) imagery, we examined the usefulness of the spatial structure of desert lands for monitoring early signs of habitat changes using the Riverside East solar energy zone located within Riverside County, California. We tested the method on four habitat types in the region, Parkinsonia florida–Olneya tesota, Chorizanthe rigida–Geraea canescens, Larrea tridentata–Ambrosia dumosa, and Larrea tridentata–Encelia farinosa alliances. The results showed that the sill, range, form, and partial sill of the variogram generated from VARI strongly correlate with overall vegetation cover, average canopy size, canopy size variation, and spatial structure within a dryland habitat, respectively. Establishing a baseline of variogram parameters for each habitat and comparing to subsequent monitoring parameters would be most effective for detecting internal changes because values of variogram parameters would not match absolute values of landscape properties. When monitoring habitats across varying landscape characteristics, a single appropriate image resolution would likely be the resolution that could adequately characterize the habitat dominated by the smallest vegetation. For the variogram generated from VARI, which correlates to vegetation greenness, the sills may indicate the health of vegetation communities. However, further studies are warranted to determine the effectiveness of variograms for monitoring habitat health. Remotely sensed landscape structure obtained from variograms could provide complementary information to traditional methods for monitoring internal changes in dryland vegetation communities.

Biofuels are important alternatives for meeting our future energy needs. Successful bioenergy crop production requires maintaining environmental sustainability and minimum impacts on current net annual food, feed, and fiber production. The objectives of this study were to: (1) determine under-productive areas within an agricultural field in a watershed using a single date; high resolution remote sensing and (2) examine impacts of growing bioenergy crops in the under-productive areas using hydrologic modeling in order to facilitate sustainable landscape design. Normalized difference indices (NDIs) were computed based on the ratio of all possible two-band combinations using the RapidEye and the National Agricultural Imagery Program images collected in summer 2011. A multiple regression analysis was performed using 10 NDIs and five RapidEye spectral bands. The regression analysis suggested that the red and near infrared bands and NDI using red-edge and near infrared that is known as the red-edge normalized difference vegetation index (RENDVI) had the highest correlation (R² = 0.524) with the reference yield. Although predictive yield map showed striking similarity to the reference yield map, the model had modest correlation; thus, further research is needed to improve predictive capability for absolute yields. Forecasted impact using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model of growing switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) on under-productive areas based on corn yield thresholds of 3.1, 4.7, and 6.3 Mg·ha⁻¹ showed reduction of tile NO₃-N and sediment exports by 15.9%–25.9% and 25%–39%, respectively. Corresponding reductions in water yields ranged from 0.9% to 2.5%. While further research is warranted, the study demonstrated the integration of remote sensing and hydrologic modeling to quantify the multifunctional value of projected future landscape patterns in a context of sustainable bioenergy crop production.