Investment in biology-based technological innovations is a key requirement for the development of modern agriculture/forestry. The expansion of innovative biological technologies includes changes in crops/cultivations, such as the transition from intensive monocultures to multiple crops of lower agrochemical inputs with the integration of woody trees/shrubs or animals, represented by Agroforestry. This innovative biological technology is further promoted at the European Union (EU) level by powerful institutions such as the Green Deal and the new CAP, mainly by tools such as ecoschemes and agri-environmental and climate measures (AECMs). The use of integrated regional spatiotemporal models, such as CLUE-S, to predict land use changes in the framework of Agroforestry is rather restricted. This paper examines Agroforestry as a vehicle that can contribute to achieving the rural development of the region of Thessaly, Greece. It sets a time horizon for reviewing the changes that are expected in the most important units of land uses of the rural landscape of the municipality of Mouzaki, western Thessaly plain, in the year 2040, which serves as model land for the region of Thessaly. It examines these changes with the effect of three (3) socio-economic scenarios: (a) a linear operating scenario (business as usual, BAU), (b) an ecological land protection (ELP) scenario, and (c) a rapid economic development (RED) scenario. These scenarios were introduced in the non-spatial module of the CLUE-S spatiotemporal model, while in the spatial module sixteen (16) characteristic landscape parameters were introduced as independent variables. The most important land use units, including traditional silvoarable and silvopastoral woodland systems, were the dependent variables. The simulations of the changes of the land use units showed that under the RED scenario, in the year 2040 the extent of the silvoarable systems is expected to increase significantly (57%) compared to the reference year of 2020, while the rest of the land use units under the other scenarios are mainly regulated by depopulation/abandonment of the rural areas and the processes of natural succession. The fact that the extent of silvoarable systems is increasing, in combination with the favorable institutional environment created by European rural policies, gives impetus to regional rural development through investments in the agricultural sector and mainly in Agroforestry systems.

Rural landscape evolution models are used as tools for the analysis of the causes and impact of land use changes on landscapes. The CLUE-S (the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model was developed to simulate the changes in current land use, by using quantitative relationships between land uses and driving factors combined with a dynamic modeling of land use competition. One of the modules that build the “CLUE-S” is the non-spatial subset of the model that calculates the temporal evolution of the land use/cover under several socio-economic scenarios. The purpose of this research was to estimate the demands of land use in the area of Mouzaki, Thessaly plain, Greece with the ultimate goal of using them in the non-spatial module of the CLUE-S to predict the evolution of land uses in year 2040. These estimations are the quantitative prediction of the spatial change for all land use types at the aggregate level. Three models of forecasting the future land cover in the area were simulated, in order to obtain a clear view of the different land uses in the future. We distinguished three model-scenarios for calculating the demand-forecasts: (a) business as usual (BAU) scenario, that deals with a linear projection of the current land use demands, (b) rapid economic development (RED) scenario, and (c) ecological land protection (ELP) scenario. In the BAU scenario the land use demands for the year 2040 were calculated using linear interpolation utilizing historical data from 1960 to 2020. In the RED scenario, the demands were calculated by maximizing the economic benefit of land uses, and in the ELP scenario the demands were calculated by maximizing the environmental benefit of land uses. Furthermore, a multi-criteria analysis was performed to find the trade-offs between economic benefit maximization and environmental benefit optimization. It was found that the agricultural lands reach their maximum area under the RED scenario, while reaching their lower bound for the ELP scenario. The same goes for agroforestry systems. The grasslands reach their lower bound under the ELP scenario, while they achieve a higher value under the RED scenario. Concerning the silvopastoral woodlands, although an increase is foreseen under the BAU scenario, it appears that they reach their lower bound in the other two scenarios, RED and ELP. Forests receive intermediate values and cover a larger area under the ELP scenario compared with the RED scenario. The expected forest cover under the BAU scenario is higher. Moreover, sparse and dense shrublands receive their lower bound for both optimization scenarios, while the settlements reach the upper bound for the RED scenario and the lower one under the ELP scenario.

The present study reviews the impact of mechanical interventions, and controlled burning combined with grazing in the Mediterranean-climate regions (MCRs) of the world. Relevant studies were searched for in the Web of Science database. Additional studies were located in the citations of these publications, and in a local database. Finally, 26 studies were included in this review. Since 1978, several other relevant studies have emerged at a rate of 24% in a 5-year time step. The studies have focused on the effects of combined grazing with other management tools on vegetation structure (18 publications), biomass productivity (16 publications), and floristic diversity (12 publications). The results were analyzed for (a) sites and treatments and (b) effects on plant structure, productivity and floristic diversity. Herbaceous forage increased after a reduction in shrub cover. Shrubs tended to recover in the grazed pastures. Vegetation height was reduced in almost in all cases according to available data. Despite its potential recovery, shrub biomass was affected by grazing in most cases. The impact of subsequent grazing was mixed regarding floristic diversity. Grazing is a useful tool for landscape management in MCRs, but the proper way to combine it with other interventions depends on the management goals.

Aims: Developing a hierarchical classification system for classes, orders and alliances of the diverse dry grasslands of the Central and Eastern Balkan Peninsula and translating this into an electronic expert system (ES) for the automatic assignment of plots.Location: Serbia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Bulgaria and northern Greece.Methods: We extracted 5734 plots from the Balkan Dry Grassland Database corresponding to eight classes of dry grasslands reported from the region, using the EuroVegChecklist ES. This data set and later the plots within each derived subunit were subjected to a new numerical approach: starting with an initial partitioning (expert‐interpreted TWINSPAN classification), diagnostic species were determined based on their phi‐values for the target vegetation type and the differences in phi‐values to the next similar types. These diagnostic species were fed into an ES to create a new partitioning, a procedure which was iterated until diagnostic species and species of the ES converged. Then the same approach was applied within each of the derived units to define the units of the next‐lower level.Results: The iterative cluster optimisation (ICO) converged in all cases. The resulting hierarchical expert system (HES) classified 95% of all plots to alliances. We distinguished four classes with eight orders and 12 alliances: (1) Tuberarietea guttatae (Romuleion); (2) Stipo‐Brachypodietea distachyi (Clinopodio alpini‐Thymion striati); (3) Festuco‐Brometea with Brachypodietalia pinnati (Chrysopogono‐Danthonion calycinae and Cirsio‐Brachypodion pinnati), Festucetalia valesiacae (Festucion valesiacae), an unnamed order of rocky steppes (with Pimpinello‐Thymion zygioidis) and Koelerietalia splendentis (Centaureo‐Bromion fibrosi, Saturejion montanae and Diantho haematocalycis‐Festucion hirtovaginatae); (four) Koelerio‐Corynephoretea with Sedo acris‐Festucetalia (Festucion vaginatae) and Trifolio arvensis‐Festucetalia ovinae (Armerio rumelicae‐Potentillion and Minuartio montanae‐Poion molinerii all. nov.).Conclusions: We created a unified hierarchical classification with an electronic ES using diagnostic species defined by phi‐values. Our new approach (ICO‐HES: iterative cluster optimisation for hierarchical expert systems) allows dividing large data sets into meaningful units at several hierarchical levels, and thus has high potential for complex classifications. Importantly, it overcomes the divide between ES species and diagnostic species and re‐unites them into one concept.

This study deals with the future of the traditional agroforestry systems (TAFSs) in the northern Mediterranean Basin. Important productive systems, such as ancient non-irrigated olive groves and extensive silvopastoral systems, from subalpine grasslands to coastal landscapes, are being irreversibly degraded, threatening the bio-cultural heritage of the Mediterranean region, an area recognized as a global biodiversity hotspot. In the midst of the global biodiversity and climate crisis, immediate actions are proposed for the protection and conservation management of TAFSs, within a new EU policy framework. Having the TAFSs of Greece in the spotlight of this analysis, a four-step approach was used in order to review the value of agroforestry in terms of (a) biodiversity (birds, mammals, invertebrates and soil biota), (b) agroforestry landscapes, such as traditional olive groves on terraces and valonia silvopastoral systems, (c) ecosystem services, especially concerning cultural values, and (d) the modern threats to traditional agroforestry. Through this research, problems are highlighted and European policy priorities are defined. Our conclusion is that there is an immediate need to revise the European Union rural, forestry, and environmental policies in the Mediterranean region, following the provisions of the new EU Nature Restoration Law, in order to revive agroforestry landscapes and make them productive and sustainable again for the benefit of rural economies, local communities, and biodiversity, especially in marginal Mediterranean mountainous and island areas, where depopulation and susceptibility to wildfires are major threats.