The number of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus of the H5N1 subtype (HPAIV H5N1) over the past 5 years has been drastically reduced in China but sporadic infections in poultry and humans are still occurring. In this study, we aimed to investigate seasonal patterns in the association between the movement of live poultry originating from southern China and HPAIV H5N1 infection history in humans and poultry in China. During January to April 2010, longitudinal questionnaire surveys were carried out monthly in four wholesale live bird markets (LBMs) in Hunan and Guangxi provinces of South China. Using social network analysis, we found an increase in the number of observed links and degree centrality between LBMs and poultry sources in February and March compared to the months of January and April. The association of some live poultry traders (LPT’s) with a limited set of counties (within the catchment area of LBMs) in the months of February and March may support HPAIV H5N1 transmission and contribute to perpetuating HPAIV H5N1 virus circulation among certain groups of counties. The connectivity among counties experiencing human infection was significantly higher compared to counties without human infection for the months of January, March and April. Conversely, counties with poultry infections were found to be significantly less connected than counties without poultry infection for the month of February. Our results show that temporal variation in live poultry trade in Southern China around the Chinese New Year festivities is associated with higher HPAIV H5N1 infection risk in humans and poultry. This study has shown that capturing the dynamic nature of poultry trade networks in Southern China improves our ability to explain the spatiotemporal dissemination in avian influenza viruses in China.

Evaluation of the diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) and specificity (DSp) of tests for infectious diseases in wild animals is challenging, and some of the limitations may affect compliance with the OIE-recommended test validation pathway. We conducted a methodologic review of test validation studies for OIE-listed diseases in wild mammals published between 2008 and 2017 and focused on study design, statistical analysis, and reporting of results. Most published papers addressed Mycobacterium bovis infection in one or more wildlife species. Our review revealed limitations or missing information about sampled animals, identification criteria for positive and negative samples (case definition), representativeness of source and target populations, and species in the study, as well as information identifying animals sampled for calculations of DSe and DSp as naturally infected captive, free-ranging, or experimentally challenged animals. The deficiencies may have reflected omissions in reporting rather than design flaws, although lack of random sampling might have induced bias in estimates of DSe and DSp. We used case studies of validation of tests for hemorrhagic diseases in deer and white-nose syndrome in hibernating bats to demonstrate approaches for validation when new pathogen serotypes or genotypes are detected and diagnostic algorithms are changed, and how purposes of tests evolve together with the evolution of the pathogen after identification. We describe potential benefits of experimental challenge studies for obtaining DSe and DSp estimates, methods to maintain sample integrity, and Bayesian latent class models for statistical analysis. We make recommendations for improvements in future studies of detection test accuracy in wild mammals.