The Liguria coastal region in Italy was affected by two heavy rainfall episodes and subsequent severe flooding that occurred at the end of October and the beginning of November 2011. In both cases, the very large accumulated precipitation maxima were associated with intense and quasi-stationary convective systems that developed near the coast, both related to orographic lift and similar low-level mesoscale flow patterns over the Ligurian Sea, giving rise to pronounced convergence lines. This study aims at analysing the main dynamical processes responsible for the onset, lifecycle, intensity and localisation/propagation of the precipitating systems, using the ISAC convection-permitting model MOLOCH applied at different spatial resolutions and comparing model output fields with available observations. The ability of the model in quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) is tested with respect to initial conditions and model horizontal resolution. Although precipitation maxima remain underestimated in the model experiments, it is shown that errors in QPF in both amount and position tend to decrease with increasing grid resolution. It is shown that model accuracy in forecasting rainfall amounts and localisation of the precipitating systems critically depends on the ability to represent the cold air outflow from the Po Valley to the Ligurian Sea, which determines the position and intensity of the mesoscale convergence lines over the sea. Such convergence lines controls, together with the lifting produced by the Apennines chain surrounding the coast, the onset of the severe convection.

A tide-surge-wave modelling system, called Kassandra, was developed for the Mediterranean Sea. It consists of a 3-D finite element hydrodynamic model (SHYFEM), including a tidal model and a third generation finite element spectral wave model (WWMII) coupled to the hydrodynamic model. The numerical grid of the hydrodynamic and wave models covers the whole Mediterranean with variable resolution. The comparison with coastal tide gauge stations along the Italian peninsula results in a root sum square error for the main tidal components equal to 1.44cm. The operational implementation of the Kassandra storm surge system through the use of a high resolution meteorological model chain (GFS, BOLAM, MOLOCH) allows accurate forecast of total water level and wave characteristics. The root mean square error for the first day of forecast is 5cm for the total water level and 22cm for the significant wave height. Simulation results indicate that the use of a 3-D approach with a depth-varying loading factor and the inclusion of the non-linear interaction between tides and surge improve significantly the model performance in the Italian coast

The oceanographic forecast capability in coastal seas is often limited by the capacity of the numerical models in correctly reproducing the complex morphology of the coastline and the exchange processes between the shelf and the open seas. In the marginal Adriatic Sea this task is of uppermost importance due to the presence of several coastal water bodies and rivers. We present here a new operational oceanographic system, called Tiresias, based on the unstructured grid model SHYFEM and representing the whole Adriatic Sea together with the lagoons of Marano-Grado, Venice and Po Delta. The novelty of this oceanographic system resides in the very high-resolution, up to 10 m, of the numerical mesh, and in the high spatial and temporal resolution of the forcing and boundary conditions that drive the forecasts. The forecast results are evaluated against sea temperature and salinity profiles, mean circulation fields derived from a regional ocean model, tide gauges and drifter trajectory. The presented results highlighted the capacity of Tiresias in forecasting the general circulation in the Adriatic Sea, as well as several relevant coastal dynamics, such as saltwater intrusion, storm surge and riverine waters dispersion.

During the MAP D-PHASE (Mesoscale Alpine Programme, Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region) Operational Period (DOP, 1 June–30 November 2007) the most intense precipitation event observed south of the Alps occurred over the Venice Lagoon. In the early morning of 26 September 2007, a mesoscale convective system formed in an area of convergence between a south-easterly low level jet flowing along the Adriatic Sea and a north-easterly barrier-type wind south of the Alps, and was responsible for precipitation exceeding 320 mm in less than 12 h, 240 mm of which in only 3 h. The forecast rainfall fields, provided by several convection resolving models operated daily for the D-PHASE project, have been compared. An analysis of different aspects of the event, such as the relevant mechanisms leading to the flood, the main characteristics of the MCS, and an estimation of the predictability of the episode, has been performed using a number of high resolution, convection resolving models (MOLOCH, WRF and MM5). Strong sensitivity to initial and boundary conditions and to model parameterization schemes has been found. Although low predictability is expected due to the convective nature of rainfall, the forecasts made more than 24 h in advance indicate that the larger scale environment driving the dynamics of this event played an important role in favouring the achievement of a relatively good accuracy in the precipitation forecasts.

Since August 2009, the GLOBO atmospheric general circulation model has been running experimentally at the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC) of the National Council of Research of Italy. GLOBO is derived from the Bologna Limited Area Model (BOLAM), a gridpoint limited-area meteorological model that was developed at the same institute and that has been extended to the entire earth atmosphere. The main dynamical features and physical parameterizations of GLOBO are presented. Starting from initial conditions obtained from the analysis of the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model valid at 0000 UTC, 6-day forecasts with average horizontal resolution of 32 km were performed on a daily basis and in real time. The assessment of the forecast skill during the 1.5-yr period included the calculation of the monthly averaged root-mean-square errors (model prediction versus gridded analyses) of geopotential height at 500 hPa and mean sea level pressure for the northern and southern extratropics, performed accordingly to WMO Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) standards. The verification results are compared with models from other global data processing and forecasting system centers, as are available in the literature. The GLOBO skill for medium-range forecasts turns out to be comparable to that of the above models. The lack of analyses based on model forecasts and data assimilation is likely to penalize the scores for shorter-term forecasts.

The response of the ozone column across Europe to the extreme 2020 Arctic ozone depletion was examined by analyzing ground‐based observations at 38 European stations. The ozone decrease at the northernmost site, Ny‐Ålesund (79°N) was about 43% with respect to a climatology of more than 30 years. The magnitude of the decrease declined by about 0.7% deg⁻¹ moving south to reach nearly 15% at 40°N. In addition, it was found that the variations of the ozone column at each of the selected stations in March‐May were similar to those observed at Ny‐Ålesund but with a delay increasing to about 20 days at mid‐latitudes with a gradient of approximately 0.5 days deg⁻¹. The distributions of reconstructed ozone column anomalies over a sector covering a large European area show decreasing ozone that started from the north at the beginning of April 2020 and spread south. Such behavior was shown to be similar to that observed after the Arctic ozone depletion in 2011. Stratospheric dynamical patterns in March–May 2011 and during 2020 suggested that the migration of ozone‐poor air masses from polar areas to the south after the vortex breakup caused the observed ozone responses. A brief survey of the ozone mass mixing ratios at three stratospheric levels showed the exceptional strength of the 2020 episode. Despite the stronger and longer‐lasting Arctic ozone loss in 2020, the analysis in this work indicates a similar ozone response at latitudes below 50°N to both 2011 and 2020 phenomena.