Recently, the most serious upsurge of the desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) in the last 25 years is spreading across eastern Africa and southwestern Asia. Parts of the desert locust ‘invasion area’, namely the northern border areas of Pakistan and India, are very close to China, and whether locust swarms will invade China is of wide concern. To answer this question, we identified areas of potentially suitable habitat for the desert locust within China based on historical precipitation and temperature data, and found that parts of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia provinces could provide ephemeral habitat in summer, but these places are remote from any other desert locust breeding areas. New generation adults of the desert locust in Pakistan and India present since April led to swarms spreading into the Indo-Pakistan border region in June, and so we examined historical wind data for this period. Our results showed that winds at the altitude of locust swarm flight blew eastward during April–June, but the wind speeds were quite slow and would not facilitate desert locust eastward migration over large distances. Simulated trajectories of desert locust swarms undertaking 10-day migrations mostly ended within India. The most easterly point of these trajectories just reached eastern India, and this is very close to the eastern border of the invasion area of desert locusts described in previous studies. Overall, the risk that the desert locust will invade China is very low.

Oedaleus asiaticus is one of the dominant species of grasshoppers in the rangeland on the Mongolian plateau, and a serious pest, but its migratory behavior is poorly known. We investigated the take-off behavior of migratory O. asiaticus in field cages in the inner Mongolia region of northern China. The species shows a degree of density-dependent phase polyphenism, with high-density swarming populations characterized by a brown morph, while low-density populations are more likely to comprise a green morph. We found that only 12.4% of brown morphs engaged in migratory take-off, and 2.0% of green morphs. Migratory grasshoppers took off at dusk, especially in the half hour after sunset (20:00–20:30 h). Most emigrating individuals did not have any food in their digestive tract, and the females were mated but with immature ovaries. In contrast, non-emigrating individuals rarely had empty digestive tracts, and most females were mated and sexually mature. Therefore, it seems clear that individuals prepare for migration in the afternoon by eliminating food residue from the body, and migration is largely restricted to sexually immature stages (at least in females). Furthermore, it was found that weather conditions (particularly temperature and wind speed at 15:00 h) in the afternoon had a significant effect on take-off that evening, with O. asiaticus preferring to take off in warm, dry and calm weather. The findings of this study will contribute to a reliable basis for forecasting migratory movements of this pest.

Recently, the most serious upsurge of desert locust ( Schistocerca gregaria ) in the last 25 years is spreading across eastern Africa and southwestern Asia. Parts of the desert locust ‘invasion area’, namely the northern border areas of Pakistan and India are very close to China, and whether locust swarms will invade China is of wide concern. To answer this question, we identified areas of potentially suitable habitat for the desert locust within China based on historical precipitation and temperature data, and found that parts of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia provinces could provide ephemeral habitat in summer, but these places are remote from any other desert locust breeding area. Presently, the desert locust populations in Pakistan and India are mature and have laid eggs, and are less likely to spread long distances. The next generation of adults will appear in April and May, and so we examined twenty years’ historical wind data (2000–2019) for this period. Our results showed that winds at the height of locust swarm flight blew eastward during April and May, but the wind speeds were quite slow and would not facilitate desert locust eastward migration over large distances. Furthermore, simulated trajectories of desert locust swarms with 10 days’ migration mostly ended within India. The most easterly point of these trajectories just reached eastern India, close to the border between India and Myanmar, and this is very close to the eastern border of the invasion area of desert locust described in previous studies. In conclusion, the risk that the desert locust will invade China is very low.