The purpose of the study was to assess the efficiency and accessibility of microcredits for small Ukrainian enterprises and to justify the feasibility of strengthening government contributions in lending to ensure the sustainable development of small businesses. Indicators for evaluating the efficiency and accessibility of microcredits are systematized. Methodological approaches to assessing the efficiency of lending for the creation and development of microenterprises have been improved. A model for evaluating the efficiency of microcredits aimed at the survival of microenterprises in a deteriorating environment was developed. It has been revealed that the level of efficiency of microcredit creation for firms in some time intervals depends quadratically on the share of microcredits in the total amount of funds directed to the creation of firms. A linear relationship between the relative amount of credit received and the growth rate of firms’ assets has also been established. However, there is no significant impact of the microcredit’s amount on labor productivity. A method has been developed for evaluating the budgetary efficiency of microcredits when such a lending is carried out using funds from state or local budgets. It was found that improving these lending conditions through budget financing can significantly increase its attractiveness for microenterprises without significantly reducing the budgetary efficiency of microcredits. This article substantiates the need to strengthen state support for microcrediting of small Ukrainian enterprises in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This study investigates the dynamic pathways of organisational resilience among Ukrainian firms operating in a war economy. Our research highlights the profound impact of armed conflicts on commerce, emphasising the need for businesses to develop resilience strategies to mitigate risks and maintain operations. Through an examination of organisational data representing the 2‐year period following Russia's full‐scale invasion of Ukraine, our findings support the presence of two resilience pathways previously described in the extant literature, ‘bounce‐back’ and ‘bounce‐beyond’ and expose two new pathways which we have labelled ‘bounce‐less’ and ‘bounce‐boom.’ Our findings reveal the complex and varying paths of organisational resilience resulting from changes in market demand and resource availability, underscoring the importance of organisational adaptability, resourcefulness and innovation. We also propose a broader definition of resilience than is currently found in the literature – one which recognises the challenges of achieving a baseline of organisational survival in a time of crisis. The article concludes with practical implications and recommendations for future research on resilience in wartime conditions.

Стаття присвячена аналізу економіки України під час військового вторгнення. Скорочення виробництва основних видів продукції, частки експортного потенціалу України та заблоковані логістичні шляхи паралізують зовнішню торгівлю держави, завдаючи збитки державному бюджету. Продовження військових дій на сході України сприяє різкому загостренню внутрішньої та світової продовольчої безпеки. Під час війни державі потрібно, тимчасово, перейти до практично ручного управління економікою, оперативно визначати пріоритетність сфер державної підтримки. Завданнями України на сучасному етапі є інтенсифікація економічних процесів на територіях, де не ведуться бойові дії, та зосередження на підтримці виробництва, переведення його у відносно безпечні регіони. Водночас держава має стимулювати переорієнтацію економіки на підтримку армії, забезпечення оборони, відновлення і підтримання інфраструктури, забезпечення продуктової безпеки та створення дієвих кроків відновлення економіки у воєнний та повоєнний період. Ряд запропонованих заходів можуть стати основою реконструкції відновлення повоєнної економіки держави.

In this article, we focus on considering different risk factors influencing the cash flows of a group of companies. A methodology is suggested for approximated consideration of both seasonal and random fluctuations in the environment, which have some impact on the overall group activity and may be considered via modification of the risk-adjusted discount rates. The main steps of the suggested methodology are described, and the elements of the risk-adjusted discount rate are presented. Although it is the general convention to use the market rate as the discount rate in most cases, under certain circumstances—i.e., stochastic shocks related to the level of interest rates, shifts, and turnabouts in the social environment, as well as the market transformations due to annual/seasonal epidemics, the use of a risk-adjusted discount rate becomes essential. The influence of the seasonal and random changes in the general environment on the companies’ activity through modification of the discount rate is illustrated both numerically and graphically in the article, providing analysis of the impact of exogenous parameters on companies’ output, profits, net present value, and discounted payback period for the initial investment.