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Daniel M. Kammen
Energy and Resources Group, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, California 94720, United States

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Article commentary
Published: 25 June 2021 in Environmental Science & Technology
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Ming Xu; Glen T. Daigger; Chuanwu Xi; Jianguo Liu; Jiuhui Qu; Pedro J. Alvarez; Pratim Biswas; Yongsheng Chen; Dana Dolinoy; Ying Fan; Huaizhu Oliver Gao; Jiming Hao; Hong He; Daniel M. Kammen; Maria Carmen Lemos; Fudong Liu; Nancy G. Love; Yonglong Lu; Denise L. Mauzerall; Shelie A. Miller; Zhiyun Ouyang; Jonathan T. Overpeck; Wei Peng; Anu Ramaswami; Zhiyong Ren; Aijie Wang; Brian Wu; Ye Wu; Junfeng Zhang; Chunmiao Zheng; Bing Zhu; Tong Zhu; Wei-Qiang Chen; Gang Liu; Shen Qu; Chunyan Wang; Yutao Wang; Xueying Yu; Chao Zhang; Hongliang Zhang. U.S.–China Collaboration is Vital to Global Plans for a Healthy Environment and Sustainable Development. Environmental Science & Technology 2021, 55, 9622 -9626.

AMA Style

Ming Xu, Glen T. Daigger, Chuanwu Xi, Jianguo Liu, Jiuhui Qu, Pedro J. Alvarez, Pratim Biswas, Yongsheng Chen, Dana Dolinoy, Ying Fan, Huaizhu Oliver Gao, Jiming Hao, Hong He, Daniel M. Kammen, Maria Carmen Lemos, Fudong Liu, Nancy G. Love, Yonglong Lu, Denise L. Mauzerall, Shelie A. Miller, Zhiyun Ouyang, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Wei Peng, Anu Ramaswami, Zhiyong Ren, Aijie Wang, Brian Wu, Ye Wu, Junfeng Zhang, Chunmiao Zheng, Bing Zhu, Tong Zhu, Wei-Qiang Chen, Gang Liu, Shen Qu, Chunyan Wang, Yutao Wang, Xueying Yu, Chao Zhang, Hongliang Zhang. U.S.–China Collaboration is Vital to Global Plans for a Healthy Environment and Sustainable Development. Environmental Science & Technology. 2021; 55 (14):9622-9626.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ming Xu; Glen T. Daigger; Chuanwu Xi; Jianguo Liu; Jiuhui Qu; Pedro J. Alvarez; Pratim Biswas; Yongsheng Chen; Dana Dolinoy; Ying Fan; Huaizhu Oliver Gao; Jiming Hao; Hong He; Daniel M. Kammen; Maria Carmen Lemos; Fudong Liu; Nancy G. Love; Yonglong Lu; Denise L. Mauzerall; Shelie A. Miller; Zhiyun Ouyang; Jonathan T. Overpeck; Wei Peng; Anu Ramaswami; Zhiyong Ren; Aijie Wang; Brian Wu; Ye Wu; Junfeng Zhang; Chunmiao Zheng; Bing Zhu; Tong Zhu; Wei-Qiang Chen; Gang Liu; Shen Qu; Chunyan Wang; Yutao Wang; Xueying Yu; Chao Zhang; Hongliang Zhang. 2021. "U.S.–China Collaboration is Vital to Global Plans for a Healthy Environment and Sustainable Development." Environmental Science & Technology 55, no. 14: 9622-9626.

Review
Published: 28 May 2021 in Energies
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Off-grid renewable energy sources are dramatically altering the energy landscape in countries with low energy access. While techno-economic perspectives are already widely discussed, the political economy is largely ignored, particularly regarding the institutions providing electricity. Two of many ways that the task of electrification can be framed are: (1) as the duty of the government to provide a basic service to its people, or (2) as a goods that can be purchased from private players in a market system. Electrification in our country of focus, Tanzania, has developed a promising off-grid market as an increasing number of private players have recently become active there. While grid extension is still a priority for the government, solar home systems, which are estimated to make up more than half of all new connections by 2030, get surprisingly less attention in terms of coordination, political support, and policy frameworks. This is despite the fact that the population is highly dispersed, making grid extension less suitable and more expensive than off-grid, decentralized systems. After an extensive literature review, our method applies a theory-embedded framework of institutional economics to the use of solar home systems for electrification in Tanzania and examines the realizations of the electricity provided. The framework defines key political economy criteria as drivers for energy access and evaluates their respective relevance. We then apply this framework to evaluate 20 selected projects, which have promoted solar home systems in rural off-grid areas in Tanzania since 2000. As a unique contribution to the literature, this research highlights the underappreciated influence of different institutional arrangements on the political economy landscape and on the electricity provided for rural electrification in sub-Saharan Africa.

ACS Style

Isa Ferrall; Georg Heinemann; Christian von Hirschhausen; Daniel Kammen. The Role of Political Economy in Energy Access: Public and Private Off-Grid Electrification in Tanzania. Energies 2021, 14, 3173 .

AMA Style

Isa Ferrall, Georg Heinemann, Christian von Hirschhausen, Daniel Kammen. The Role of Political Economy in Energy Access: Public and Private Off-Grid Electrification in Tanzania. Energies. 2021; 14 (11):3173.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Isa Ferrall; Georg Heinemann; Christian von Hirschhausen; Daniel Kammen. 2021. "The Role of Political Economy in Energy Access: Public and Private Off-Grid Electrification in Tanzania." Energies 14, no. 11: 3173.

Letter
Published: 01 May 2021 in Environmental Research Letters
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Tackling climate change and human development challenges will require major global investments in renewable energy systems, including possibly into large hydropower. Despite well-known impacts of hydropower dams, most renewable energy assessments neither account for externalities of hydropower nor evaluate possible strategic alternatives. Here we demonstrate how integrating energy systems modeling and strategic hydropower planning can resolve conflicts between renewable energy and dam impacts on rivers. We apply these tools to Myanmar, whose rivers are the last free-flowing rivers of Asia, and where business-as-usual (BAU) plans call for up to 40 GW of new hydropower. We present alternative energy futures that rely more on scalable wind and solar, and less on hydropower (6.7–10.3 GW) than the BAU. Reduced reliance on hydropower allows us to use river basin models to strategically design dam portfolios for minimized impact. Thus, our alternative futures result in greatly reduced impacts on rivers in terms of sediment trapping and habitat fragmentation, and result in lower system costs ($8.4 billion compared to $11.7 billion for the BAU). Our results highlight specific opportunities for Myanmar but also demonstrate global techno-ecological synergies between climate action, equitable human development and conservation of riparian ecosystems and livelihoods.

ACS Style

Rafael J P Schmitt; Noah Kittner; G Mathias Kondolf; Daniel M Kammen. Joint strategic energy and river basin planning to reduce dam impacts on rivers in Myanmar. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16, 054054 .

AMA Style

Rafael J P Schmitt, Noah Kittner, G Mathias Kondolf, Daniel M Kammen. Joint strategic energy and river basin planning to reduce dam impacts on rivers in Myanmar. Environmental Research Letters. 2021; 16 (5):054054.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rafael J P Schmitt; Noah Kittner; G Mathias Kondolf; Daniel M Kammen. 2021. "Joint strategic energy and river basin planning to reduce dam impacts on rivers in Myanmar." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 5: 054054.

Journal article
Published: 06 March 2021 in The Electricity Journal
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We study the cost and lock in of carbon intensive technologies due to weak medium-term policies. We use SWITCH WECC—a power system capacity expansion optimization model with high temporal and geographical resolution. We test three carbon cap scenarios. For each scenario, we optimize the power system for a medium timeframe (2030) and a long timeframe (2050). In the medium timeframe optimizations, by 2030 coal replaces gas power. This occurs because the long optimization foresees the stronger carbon cap in 2050. Therefore, it is optimal to transition towards cleaner technologies as early as 2030. The medium-term optimization has higher costs in 2040 and 2050 compared to the long optimization. Therefore, to minimize total costs to reduce emissions by 80 % in 2050, we should optimize until 2050 or have stronger carbon cap policies by 2030 (such as 26 % carbon emissions reductions from 1990 levels by 2030 across the WECC).

ACS Style

Patricia L. Hidalgo-Gonzalez; Josiah Johnston; Daniel M. Kammen. Cost and impact of weak medium term policies in the electricity system in Western North America. The Electricity Journal 2021, 34, 106925 .

AMA Style

Patricia L. Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Josiah Johnston, Daniel M. Kammen. Cost and impact of weak medium term policies in the electricity system in Western North America. The Electricity Journal. 2021; 34 (3):106925.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Patricia L. Hidalgo-Gonzalez; Josiah Johnston; Daniel M. Kammen. 2021. "Cost and impact of weak medium term policies in the electricity system in Western North America." The Electricity Journal 34, no. 3: 106925.

Short communication
Published: 13 February 2021 in The Electricity Journal
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In this paper we present an alternative approach to addressing the problem of energy poverty. The private and community ownership in electricity factors of production, economic calculation, and the incentive for innovation through the price mechanism are discussed. A brief analysis on how this new approach can be used to address energy access problems in energy poor communities is done. Cases studies of the Nigerian off-grid mini-grid industry and the Ecoblock pilot project in California in the United States are discussed.

ACS Style

Tam Kemabonta; Daniel M. Kammen. A community based approach to universal energy access. The Electricity Journal 2021, 34, 106921 .

AMA Style

Tam Kemabonta, Daniel M. Kammen. A community based approach to universal energy access. The Electricity Journal. 2021; 34 (3):106921.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tam Kemabonta; Daniel M. Kammen. 2021. "A community based approach to universal energy access." The Electricity Journal 34, no. 3: 106921.

Journal article
Published: 22 January 2021 in Sustainability
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Accurate wind power forecasting is essential to reduce the negative impact of wind power on the operation of the grid and the operation cost of the power system. Day-ahead wind power forecasting plays an important role in the day-ahead electricity spot trading market. However, the instability of the wind power series makes the forecast difficult. To improve forecast accuracy, a hybrid optimization algorithm is established in this study, which combines variational mode decomposition (VMD), maximum relevance & minimum redundancy algorithm (mRMR), long short-term memory neural network (LSTM), and firefly algorithm (FA) together. Firstly, the original historical wind power sequence is decomposed into several characteristic model functions with VMD. Then, mRMR is applied to obtain the best feature set by analyzing the correlation between each component. Finally, the FA is used to optimize the various parameters LSTM. Adding the forecasting results of all sub-sequences acquires the forecasting result. It turns out that the proposed hybrid algorithm is superior to the other six comparison algorithms. At the same time, an additional case is provided to further verify the adaptability and stability of the proposed hybrid model.

ACS Style

Guangyu Qin; QingYou Yan; Jingyao Zhu; Chuanbo Xu; Daniel Kammen. Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting Based on Wind Load Data Using Hybrid Optimization Algorithm. Sustainability 2021, 13, 1164 .

AMA Style

Guangyu Qin, QingYou Yan, Jingyao Zhu, Chuanbo Xu, Daniel Kammen. Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting Based on Wind Load Data Using Hybrid Optimization Algorithm. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (3):1164.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Guangyu Qin; QingYou Yan; Jingyao Zhu; Chuanbo Xu; Daniel Kammen. 2021. "Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting Based on Wind Load Data Using Hybrid Optimization Algorithm." Sustainability 13, no. 3: 1164.

Journal article
Published: 05 December 2020 in Energy Policy
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The deployment of renewable electricity and electric vehicles (EVs) provides a synergistic opportunity to accelerate the decarbonization of both China's power and transportation sectors. Here, we evaluate the potential impacts of EVs by utilizing the SWITCH-China model designed to meet emissions constraints within its power sector while integrating the electrified transportation sector. We focus on how various EV stocks, and charging strategies (unmanaged versus smart charging) impact the power sector, in terms of generation and hourly grid operation, the capacity mix, and achieving the Paris Agreement goals. Large-scale deployment of EVs increases the need for generation capacity, while the implementation of smart charging requires 6.8%–14% less additional storage capacity. We calculate that power system integration costs to incorporate EVs range from $228 - $352 per EV. We show that a smart charging strategy saves between $43 and $123 per vehicle more annually in 2050 than a case with the same EV stock where the charging is unmanaged. Our results suggest that a 140 GW annual growth of renewables from 2020 to 2050, coupled with an aggressive EVs deployment using smart charging can put China solidly on a path to meet its ambitious carbon cap targets.

ACS Style

Bo Li; Ziming Ma; Patricia Hidalgo-Gonzalez; Alex Lathem; Natalie Fedorova; Gang He; Haiwang Zhong; Minyou Chen; Daniel M. Kammen. Modeling the impact of EVs in the Chinese power system: Pathways for implementing emissions reduction commitments in the power and transportation sectors. Energy Policy 2020, 149, 111962 .

AMA Style

Bo Li, Ziming Ma, Patricia Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Alex Lathem, Natalie Fedorova, Gang He, Haiwang Zhong, Minyou Chen, Daniel M. Kammen. Modeling the impact of EVs in the Chinese power system: Pathways for implementing emissions reduction commitments in the power and transportation sectors. Energy Policy. 2020; 149 ():111962.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bo Li; Ziming Ma; Patricia Hidalgo-Gonzalez; Alex Lathem; Natalie Fedorova; Gang He; Haiwang Zhong; Minyou Chen; Daniel M. Kammen. 2020. "Modeling the impact of EVs in the Chinese power system: Pathways for implementing emissions reduction commitments in the power and transportation sectors." Energy Policy 149, no. : 111962.

Author correction
Published: 02 December 2020 in Nature Communications
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A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20254-5

ACS Style

Zhu Liu; Philippe Ciais; Zhu Deng; Ruixue Lei; Steven J. Davis; Sha Feng; Bo Zheng; Duo Cui; Xinyu Dou; Biqing Zhu; Rui Guo; Piyu Ke; Taochun Sun; Chenxi Lu; Pan He; Yuan Wang; Xu Yue; Yilong Wang; Yadong Lei; Hao Zhou; Zhaonan Cai; Yuhui Wu; Runtao Guo; Tingxuan Han; Jinjun Xue; Olivier Boucher; Eulalie Boucher; Frédéric Chevallier; Katsumasa Tanaka; Yiming Wei; Haiwang Zhong; Chongqing Kang; Ning Zhang; Bin Chen; Fengming Xi; Miaomiao Liu; François-Marie Bréon; Yonglong Lu; Qiang Zhang; Dabo Guan; Peng Gong; Daniel M. Kammen; Kebin He; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. Author Correction: Near-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature Communications 2020, 11, 1 -1.

AMA Style

Zhu Liu, Philippe Ciais, Zhu Deng, Ruixue Lei, Steven J. Davis, Sha Feng, Bo Zheng, Duo Cui, Xinyu Dou, Biqing Zhu, Rui Guo, Piyu Ke, Taochun Sun, Chenxi Lu, Pan He, Yuan Wang, Xu Yue, Yilong Wang, Yadong Lei, Hao Zhou, Zhaonan Cai, Yuhui Wu, Runtao Guo, Tingxuan Han, Jinjun Xue, Olivier Boucher, Eulalie Boucher, Frédéric Chevallier, Katsumasa Tanaka, Yiming Wei, Haiwang Zhong, Chongqing Kang, Ning Zhang, Bin Chen, Fengming Xi, Miaomiao Liu, François-Marie Bréon, Yonglong Lu, Qiang Zhang, Dabo Guan, Peng Gong, Daniel M. Kammen, Kebin He, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. Author Correction: Near-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature Communications. 2020; 11 (1):1-1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zhu Liu; Philippe Ciais; Zhu Deng; Ruixue Lei; Steven J. Davis; Sha Feng; Bo Zheng; Duo Cui; Xinyu Dou; Biqing Zhu; Rui Guo; Piyu Ke; Taochun Sun; Chenxi Lu; Pan He; Yuan Wang; Xu Yue; Yilong Wang; Yadong Lei; Hao Zhou; Zhaonan Cai; Yuhui Wu; Runtao Guo; Tingxuan Han; Jinjun Xue; Olivier Boucher; Eulalie Boucher; Frédéric Chevallier; Katsumasa Tanaka; Yiming Wei; Haiwang Zhong; Chongqing Kang; Ning Zhang; Bin Chen; Fengming Xi; Miaomiao Liu; François-Marie Bréon; Yonglong Lu; Qiang Zhang; Dabo Guan; Peng Gong; Daniel M. Kammen; Kebin He; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. 2020. "Author Correction: Near-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic." Nature Communications 11, no. 1: 1-1.

Journal article
Published: 01 December 2020 in Environmental Research Letters
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Julia K Szinai; Ranjit Deshmukh; Daniel M Kammen; Andrew D Jones. Evaluating cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and adaptations on the energy-water nexus: a framework and California case study. Environmental Research Letters 2020, 15, 124065 .

AMA Style

Julia K Szinai, Ranjit Deshmukh, Daniel M Kammen, Andrew D Jones. Evaluating cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and adaptations on the energy-water nexus: a framework and California case study. Environmental Research Letters. 2020; 15 (12):124065.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Julia K Szinai; Ranjit Deshmukh; Daniel M Kammen; Andrew D Jones. 2020. "Evaluating cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and adaptations on the energy-water nexus: a framework and California case study." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 12: 124065.

Journal article
Published: 27 November 2020 in Nature Communications
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China has enacted a series of policies since 2015 to substitute electricity for in-home combustion for rural residential heating. The Electric Heating Policy (EHP) has contributed to significant improvements in air quality, benefiting hundreds of millions of people. This shift, however, has resulted in a sharp increase in electric loads and associated carbon emissions. Here, we show that China’s EHP will greatly increase carbon emissions. We develop a theoretical model to quantify the carbon emissions from power generation and rural residential heating sectors. We found that in 2015, an additional 101.69–162.89 megatons of CO2 could potentially be emitted if EHP was implemented in 45–55% of rural residents in Northern China. In 2020, the incremental carbon emission is expected to reach 130.03–197.87 megatons. Fortunately, the growth of carbon emission will slow down due to China’s urbanization progress. In 2030, the carbon emission increase induced by EHP will drop to 119.19–177.47 megatons. Finally, we conclude two kinds of practical pathways toward low-carbon electric heating, and provide techno-economic analyses.

ACS Style

Jianxiao Wang; Haiwang Zhong; Zhifang Yang; Mu Wang; Daniel M. Kammen; Zhu Liu; Ziming Ma; Qing Xia; Chongqing Kang. Exploring the trade-offs between electric heating policy and carbon mitigation in China. Nature Communications 2020, 11, 1 -11.

AMA Style

Jianxiao Wang, Haiwang Zhong, Zhifang Yang, Mu Wang, Daniel M. Kammen, Zhu Liu, Ziming Ma, Qing Xia, Chongqing Kang. Exploring the trade-offs between electric heating policy and carbon mitigation in China. Nature Communications. 2020; 11 (1):1-11.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jianxiao Wang; Haiwang Zhong; Zhifang Yang; Mu Wang; Daniel M. Kammen; Zhu Liu; Ziming Ma; Qing Xia; Chongqing Kang. 2020. "Exploring the trade-offs between electric heating policy and carbon mitigation in China." Nature Communications 11, no. 1: 1-11.

Journal article
Published: 14 October 2020 in Nature Communications
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The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting human activities, and in turn energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Here we present daily estimates of country-level CO2 emissions for different sectors based on near-real-time activity data. The key result is an abrupt 8.8% decrease in global CO2 emissions (−1551 Mt CO2) in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. The magnitude of this decrease is larger than during previous economic downturns or World War II. The timing of emissions decreases corresponds to lockdown measures in each country. By July 1st, the pandemic’s effects on global emissions diminished as lockdown restrictions relaxed and some economic activities restarted, especially in China and several European countries, but substantial differences persist between countries, with continuing emission declines in the U.S. where coronavirus cases are still increasing substantially.

ACS Style

Zhu Liu; Philippe Ciais; Zhu Deng; Ruixue Lei; Steven J. Davis; Sha Feng; Bo Zheng; Duo Cui; Xinyu Dou; Biqing Zhu; Rui Guo; Piyu Ke; Taochun Sun; Chenxi Lu; Pan He; Yuan Wang; Xu Yue; Yilong Wang; Yadong Lei; Hao Zhou; Zhaonan Cai; Yuhui Wu; Runtao Guo; Tingxuan Han; Jinjun Xue; Olivier Boucher; Eulalie Boucher; Frédéric Chevallier; Katsumasa Tanaka; Yiming Wei; Haiwang Zhong; Chongqing Kang; Ning Zhang; Bin Chen; Fengming Xi; Miaomiao Liu; François-Marie Bréon; Yonglong Lu; Qiang Zhang; Dabo Guan; Peng Gong; Daniel M. Kammen; Kebin He; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. Near-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature Communications 2020, 11, 1 -12.

AMA Style

Zhu Liu, Philippe Ciais, Zhu Deng, Ruixue Lei, Steven J. Davis, Sha Feng, Bo Zheng, Duo Cui, Xinyu Dou, Biqing Zhu, Rui Guo, Piyu Ke, Taochun Sun, Chenxi Lu, Pan He, Yuan Wang, Xu Yue, Yilong Wang, Yadong Lei, Hao Zhou, Zhaonan Cai, Yuhui Wu, Runtao Guo, Tingxuan Han, Jinjun Xue, Olivier Boucher, Eulalie Boucher, Frédéric Chevallier, Katsumasa Tanaka, Yiming Wei, Haiwang Zhong, Chongqing Kang, Ning Zhang, Bin Chen, Fengming Xi, Miaomiao Liu, François-Marie Bréon, Yonglong Lu, Qiang Zhang, Dabo Guan, Peng Gong, Daniel M. Kammen, Kebin He, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. Near-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature Communications. 2020; 11 (1):1-12.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zhu Liu; Philippe Ciais; Zhu Deng; Ruixue Lei; Steven J. Davis; Sha Feng; Bo Zheng; Duo Cui; Xinyu Dou; Biqing Zhu; Rui Guo; Piyu Ke; Taochun Sun; Chenxi Lu; Pan He; Yuan Wang; Xu Yue; Yilong Wang; Yadong Lei; Hao Zhou; Zhaonan Cai; Yuhui Wu; Runtao Guo; Tingxuan Han; Jinjun Xue; Olivier Boucher; Eulalie Boucher; Frédéric Chevallier; Katsumasa Tanaka; Yiming Wei; Haiwang Zhong; Chongqing Kang; Ning Zhang; Bin Chen; Fengming Xi; Miaomiao Liu; François-Marie Bréon; Yonglong Lu; Qiang Zhang; Dabo Guan; Peng Gong; Daniel M. Kammen; Kebin He; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. 2020. "Near-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic." Nature Communications 11, no. 1: 1-12.

Articles
Published: 02 September 2020 in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
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Recent news reports have focused on the so-called collapse of coal, which indeed is in free-fall in many nations. And it’s not limited to the news media; an International Energy Agency report said “… Only renewables are holding up during the previously unheard-of slump in electricity use.” Coal use is down to record low-levels in the United States. This decrease is also underway for oil and natural gas. Meanwhile, new solar and wind projects are up 4 percent since the start of the year, and the most affordable projects worldwide over the past three years have all been renewable energy installations. These cost trends, and the slow-down in demand for fossil-fuels that came with the COVID-19-induced recession tipped the balance in favor of clean, renewable energy – at least temporarily. But from here on in, much depends on what we do next: How will we respond to this accidental and costly emergency? Will we double-down on pollution and the racial injustices that are inherent with the use of fossil fuels? Or will we use this hiatus to craft a new, green, and job-creating economy?

ACS Style

Daniel M. Kammen. Over the hump: Have we reached the peak of carbon emissions? Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2020, 76, 256 -262.

AMA Style

Daniel M. Kammen. Over the hump: Have we reached the peak of carbon emissions? Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 2020; 76 (5):256-262.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Daniel M. Kammen. 2020. "Over the hump: Have we reached the peak of carbon emissions?" Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 76, no. 5: 256-262.

Chapter
Published: 14 May 2020 in Health of People, Health of Planet and Our Responsibility
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Energy poverty is arguably the most pervasive and crippling threat society faces today. Lack of access impacts several billion people, with immediate health, educational, economic, and social damage. Furthermore, how this problem is addressed will result in the largest accelerant of global pollution or the largest opportunity to pivot away from fossil fuels onto the needed clean energy path. In a clear example of the power of systems thinking, energy poverty and climate change together present a dual crisis of energy injustice along gender, ethnic, and socioeconomic grounds, which has been exacerbated if not outright caused by a failure of the wealthy to see how tightly coupled our global collective fate is if addressing climate change fairly and inclusively does not become an immediate, actionable priority. While debate exists on the optimal path or paths to wean our economy from fossil fuels, there is no question that technically we now have sufficient knowledge and a sufficient technological foundation to launch and to even complete decarbonization. What is critically needed is an equally powerful social narrative to accelerate the clean energy transition. Laudato Si’ provides a compelling foundation built on the narrative around the health, climate, and social benefits of a global green energy transition. The Green New Deal in the USA is a political movement that grows from this new understanding of sound stewardship and respect for the planet and its inhabitants. This chapter presents examples and formulation of an action agenda to defeat energy poverty and energy injustice.

ACS Style

Daniel M. Kammen. Defeating Energy Poverty: Invest in Scalable Solutions for the Poor. Health of People, Health of Planet and Our Responsibility 2020, 333 -347.

AMA Style

Daniel M. Kammen. Defeating Energy Poverty: Invest in Scalable Solutions for the Poor. Health of People, Health of Planet and Our Responsibility. 2020; ():333-347.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Daniel M. Kammen. 2020. "Defeating Energy Poverty: Invest in Scalable Solutions for the Poor." Health of People, Health of Planet and Our Responsibility , no. : 333-347.

Research article
Published: 13 May 2020 in Environmental Science & Technology
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Mobility on-demand vehicle (MODV) services have grown explosively in recent years, threatening targets for local air pollution and global carbon emissions. Despite evidence that on-demand automotive fleets are ripe for electrification, adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in fleet applications has been hindered by lack of charging infrastructure and long charging times. Recent research on electrification programs in Chinese megacities suggests that top-down policy targets can spur investment in charging infrastructure, while intelligent charging coordination can greatly reduce requirements for battery range and infrastructure, as well as revenue losses due to time spent charging. Such capability may require labor policy reform to allow fleet operators to manage their drivers' charging behavior, along with collection and integration of several key data sets including (1) vehicle trajectories and energy consumption, (2) charging infrastructure installation costs, and (3) real-time charging station availability. In turn, digitization enabled by fleet electrification holds the potential to enable a host of smart urban mobility strategies, including integration of public transit with innovative transportation systems and emission-based pricing policies.

ACS Style

Gordon Bauer; Cheng Zheng; Jeffery Buyers Greenblatt; Susan Shaheen; Daniel M. Kammen. On-Demand Automotive Fleet Electrification Can Catalyze Global Transportation Decarbonization and Smart Urban Mobility. Environmental Science & Technology 2020, 54, 7027 -7033.

AMA Style

Gordon Bauer, Cheng Zheng, Jeffery Buyers Greenblatt, Susan Shaheen, Daniel M. Kammen. On-Demand Automotive Fleet Electrification Can Catalyze Global Transportation Decarbonization and Smart Urban Mobility. Environmental Science & Technology. 2020; 54 (12):7027-7033.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gordon Bauer; Cheng Zheng; Jeffery Buyers Greenblatt; Susan Shaheen; Daniel M. Kammen. 2020. "On-Demand Automotive Fleet Electrification Can Catalyze Global Transportation Decarbonization and Smart Urban Mobility." Environmental Science & Technology 54, no. 12: 7027-7033.

Other
Published: 05 May 2020
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Summary Background The health impacts of ambient air pollution impose large costs on society. While all people are exposed to air pollution, older individuals tend to be disproportionally affected. As a result, there is growing concern about the public health impacts of air pollution as many countries undergo rapid population ageing. We investigated the spatial and temporal variation in the health economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient air pollution, and its interaction with population ageing from 2000 to 2016 at global and regional levels. Methods We developed an age-adjusted measure of the value of a statistical life year (VSLY) to estimate the health economic cost attributable to ambient PM2.5 pollution using the Global Burden of Disease 2017 data and country-level socioeconomic information. First, we estimated the global age- and cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLL) attributable to PM2.5 pollution using the global exposure mortality model (GEMM) and global estimates of exposure derived from ground monitoring, satellite retrievals and chemical transport model simulations at 0.1° × 0.1° (~11 km at the equator) resolution. Second, for each year between 2000 and 2016, we translated the YLL within each age-group into a health-related economic cost using a country-specific, age-adjusted measure of VSLY. Third, we decomposed the major driving factors that contributed to the temporal change in health costs related to PM2.5. Finally, we conducted a sensitivity test to analyze the variability of the estimated health costs to four alternative valuation measures. We identified the uncertainty intervals (UIs) from 1000 draws of the parameters and exposure-response functions by age, cause, country and year. All economic values are reported in 2011 purchasing-power-parity-adjusted US dollars. Findings Globally, 8.42 million (95% UI: 6.50, 10.52) deaths and 163.68 million (116.03, 219.44) YLL were attributable to ambient PM2.5 in 2016. The average attributable mortality for the older population was 12 times higher than for those younger than 60 years old. In 2016, the global health economic cost of ambient PM2.5 pollution for the older population was US$2.40 trillion (1.89, 2.93) accounting for 59% of the cost for the total population. The health cost for the older population alone was equivalent to 2.1% (1.7%, 2.6%) of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016. While the economic cost per capita for the older population was US$2739 (2160, 3345) in 2016, the cost per capita for the younger population was only US$268 (205, 335). From 2000 to 2016, the annual global health economic cost for the total population increased from US$2.37 trillion (1.88, 2.87) to US$4.09 trillion (3.19, 5.05). Decomposing the factors that contributed to the rise in health economic costs, we found that increases in GDP per capita, population ageing, population growth, age-specific mortality reduction, and PM2.5 exposure changed the total health economic cost by 77%, 21.2%, 15.6%, -41.1% and -0.2%, respectively. Compared to using an age-invariant VSLY or an age-invariant value of a statistical life (VSL), the estimates of the older population’s share of the total health economic cost using an age-adjusted VSLY was 2 and 18 percentage points lower, respectively.

ACS Style

Hao Yin; Michael Brauer; Junfeng (Jim) Zhang; Wenjia Cai; Ståle Navrud; Richard Burnett; Courtney Howard; Zhu Deng; Daniel M. Kammen; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber; Kai Chen; Haidong Kan; Zhanming Chen; Bin Chen; Ning Zhang; Zhifu Mi; D’Maris Coffman; Yiming Wei; Aaron Cohen; Dabo Guan; Qiang Zhang; Peng Gong; Zhu Liu. Global Economic Cost of Deaths Attributable to Ambient Air Pollution: Disproportionate Burden on the Ageing Population. 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Hao Yin, Michael Brauer, Junfeng (Jim) Zhang, Wenjia Cai, Ståle Navrud, Richard Burnett, Courtney Howard, Zhu Deng, Daniel M. Kammen, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Kai Chen, Haidong Kan, Zhanming Chen, Bin Chen, Ning Zhang, Zhifu Mi, D’Maris Coffman, Yiming Wei, Aaron Cohen, Dabo Guan, Qiang Zhang, Peng Gong, Zhu Liu. Global Economic Cost of Deaths Attributable to Ambient Air Pollution: Disproportionate Burden on the Ageing Population. . 2020; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hao Yin; Michael Brauer; Junfeng (Jim) Zhang; Wenjia Cai; Ståle Navrud; Richard Burnett; Courtney Howard; Zhu Deng; Daniel M. Kammen; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber; Kai Chen; Haidong Kan; Zhanming Chen; Bin Chen; Ning Zhang; Zhifu Mi; D’Maris Coffman; Yiming Wei; Aaron Cohen; Dabo Guan; Qiang Zhang; Peng Gong; Zhu Liu. 2020. "Global Economic Cost of Deaths Attributable to Ambient Air Pollution: Disproportionate Burden on the Ageing Population." , no. : 1.

Other
Published: 22 April 2020
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Background COVID-19 has caused an unprecedented public health crisis and economic shock to the global economy. While many countries were affected, regions with an older population and weaker public health interventions tended to suffer more morbidity and mortality. Here we model and quantify the age-specific incidence of COVID-19 in four pandemic cities under different interventions. Methods We developed an age-specific and multiple-stage susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-hospitalized-quarantined-dead (SEIR-HQD) dynamical systems model expanded from the more basic SEIR model by incorporating location- and age-specific contact matrices to estimate the outcomes of COVID-19. Utilizing latest estimates of epidemiological parameters and demographic data, we model the potential effects of various interventions in four representative cities with different population structures - New York, Los Angeles, Daegu and Nairobi. We compared the effects of different interventions in the age-structure populations specific to each city. These policy options are then applied to determine the potential for effective containment. We model these dynamic policy scenarios to assess the risks of less-stringent social distancing, as has been proposed by those arguing to enhance economic activity over public health and safety. Finally, we explored the health impacts of different policy action timelines to understand the benefits of early interventions. Findings We find the spread of COVID-19 to be dramatically different in the regions modeled, with the primary drivers the variation of population age structures, and the dynamics of interactions of the younger demographics, whose higher interaction rates can lead to increasing transmission rates across these communities. A city with younger citizens may also have fewer hospitalized cases and deaths. Our modeling quantifies the value of early interventions, which avoided an additional 5%, 16%, 37% and 43% of the infections in Daegu, Nairobi, New York and Los Angeles, respectively, compared to what has been observed in the four cities. The finding is clear: in the absence of pharmaceutical options, delaying strict social policy interventions has resulted in substantial public health cost. This modeling can, and will, be applied to other cities and regions, and conducted in conjunction with other health insults, such as exposure to air pollution. Critically, we find that school closures, working from home, and reduction in other mobility were most beneficial for younger population (0-19 years old), middle-age (20-59 years old) population and older population (60 years and older), respectively across each city. Specifically, school closure avoided 25%, 18%, 16% and 12% of the infections for the population under 20 years old in Daegu, Los Angeles, New York and Nairobi, respectively. A 50% and 80% population working from home policy avoids 8% and 15% of the infections. Reduction in mobility was more effective than the working from home strategy. Any single social distancing policy if enacted alone can delay the spread of COVID-19 but was unable to totally suppress the infection. Coordinated policy action can be highly effective. Increasing the quarantine rate to 10% of infectious cases was more effective than strict social distancing alone in this study, although together they can suppress 80% of the epidemic. A combination of moderate social distancing and quarantine strategies was able to avoid 99% of the infections. Interpretation Moderate social distancing together with high quarantine rates was effective in each of the four cities. COVID-19 caused more deaths and hospitalization in cities with an ageing population than those with a younger population. However, in the cities with a younger population, there is a clear need to implement a social distancing strategy that is even more strict due to the higher transmission rates among younger people. Cities with more older people should prepare more hospital beds and healthcare facilities to save people who are in critical conditions. Cities with ageing population should take targeted action for the elderly to avoid the severe impacts on the vulnerable populations. Increasing quarantine rate is an effective strategy to avoid the substantial infection while also does not influence the economy fiercely. We recommend countries or regions experiencing, or likely to experience the rapid spread of COVID-19, to implement combination of multiple strategies in the early stage of the breakout which can avoid over 90% of infected cases.

ACS Style

Hao Yin; Zhu Liu; Daniel M. Kammen. Impacts of Early Interventions on the Age-Specific Incidence of COVID-19 in New York, Los Angeles, Daegu and Nairobi. 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Hao Yin, Zhu Liu, Daniel M. Kammen. Impacts of Early Interventions on the Age-Specific Incidence of COVID-19 in New York, Los Angeles, Daegu and Nairobi. . 2020; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hao Yin; Zhu Liu; Daniel M. Kammen. 2020. "Impacts of Early Interventions on the Age-Specific Incidence of COVID-19 in New York, Los Angeles, Daegu and Nairobi." , no. : 1.

Editorial
Published: 01 December 2019 in Environmental Research Letters
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IPCC's 2018 Special Report is a stark and bracing reminder of climate threats. Yet literature, reportage, and public discourse reflect imbalanced risk and opportunity. Climate science often understates changes' speed and nonlinearity, but Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and similar studies often understate realistic mitigation options. Since ~2010, global mitigation of fossil CO2—including by often-uncounted modern renewable heat comparable to solar-plus-wind electricity—has accelerated to about the pace (if sustained) needed for a 2 °C trajectory. Mitigation has uncertainties, emergent properties, feasibility thresholds, and nonlinearities at least comparable to climate's, creating opportunities for aggressive action. Renewable electricity's swift uptake can now be echoed as proven integrative design can make end-use efficiency severalfold larger and cheaper, often with increasing returns (lower cost with rising quantity). Saved energy—the world's largest decarbonizer and energy 'source' (bigger than oil)—can then potentiate renewables and cut supply investments, as a few recent efficiency-centric IAMs confirm. Optimizing choices, combinations, timing, and sequencing of technologies, urban form, behavioral shifts, etc could save still more energy, money, and time. Some rigorous engineering-based national studies outside standard climate literature even imply potential 1.5 °C global trajectories cheaper than business-as-usual. A complementary opportunity—rapidly and durably abating hydrocarbon industries' deliberate upstream CH4 releases from flares and engineered vents, by any large operator's profitably abating its own and others' emissions—could stabilize (or more) the global methane cycle and buy time to abate more CO2. Together, these findings justify sober recalibration of the prospects for a fairer, healthier, cooler, and safer world. Supported by other disciplines, improved IAMs can illuminate this potential and support its refinement. Ambitious policies and aggressive marketplace and societal adoption of profitable new abatement opportunities need not wait for better models, but better models would help them to attract merited attention, scale faster, and turn numbing despair into collectively powerful applied hope.

ACS Style

Amory B Lovins; Diana Ürge-Vorsatz; Luis Mundaca; Daniel M Kammen; Jacob W Glassman. Recalibrating climate prospects. Environmental Research Letters 2019, 14, 120201 .

AMA Style

Amory B Lovins, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Luis Mundaca, Daniel M Kammen, Jacob W Glassman. Recalibrating climate prospects. Environmental Research Letters. 2019; 14 (12):120201.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Amory B Lovins; Diana Ürge-Vorsatz; Luis Mundaca; Daniel M Kammen; Jacob W Glassman. 2019. "Recalibrating climate prospects." Environmental Research Letters 14, no. 12: 120201.

Contributors
Published: 22 November 2019 in Technological Learning in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy System
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Philipp Andres; Blanca Corona; Thijs De Groot; David De Jager; Oreane Y. Edelenbosch; Matthew Fairlie; Tobias Fleiter; Christoph Fraunholz; Brian F. Gerke; Nilo Gomez Tuya; Jonatan J. Gómez Vilchez; Stephanie Heitel; Andrea Herbst; Eric Hittinger; Martin Jakob; Gert Jan Kramer; Patrick Jochem; Martin Junginger; Daniel M. Kammen; Noah Kittner; Subramani Krishnan; Juliana Subtil Lacerda; Atse Louwen; David L. Mccollum; Dominik Möst; Hazel Pettifor; Ulrich Reiter; Oliver Schmidt; Steffi Schreiber; Katrin Seddig; Iain Staffell; Dalius Tarvydas; Michael Taylor; Ioannis Tsiropoulos; Wilfried Van Sark; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Ernst Van Zuijlen; Eric Williams; Charlie Wilson; Ryan Wiser; Christoph Zöphel. List of contributors. Technological Learning in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy System 2019, 1 .

AMA Style

Philipp Andres, Blanca Corona, Thijs De Groot, David De Jager, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Matthew Fairlie, Tobias Fleiter, Christoph Fraunholz, Brian F. Gerke, Nilo Gomez Tuya, Jonatan J. Gómez Vilchez, Stephanie Heitel, Andrea Herbst, Eric Hittinger, Martin Jakob, Gert Jan Kramer, Patrick Jochem, Martin Junginger, Daniel M. Kammen, Noah Kittner, Subramani Krishnan, Juliana Subtil Lacerda, Atse Louwen, David L. Mccollum, Dominik Möst, Hazel Pettifor, Ulrich Reiter, Oliver Schmidt, Steffi Schreiber, Katrin Seddig, Iain Staffell, Dalius Tarvydas, Michael Taylor, Ioannis Tsiropoulos, Wilfried Van Sark, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Ernst Van Zuijlen, Eric Williams, Charlie Wilson, Ryan Wiser, Christoph Zöphel. List of contributors. Technological Learning in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy System. 2019; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Philipp Andres; Blanca Corona; Thijs De Groot; David De Jager; Oreane Y. Edelenbosch; Matthew Fairlie; Tobias Fleiter; Christoph Fraunholz; Brian F. Gerke; Nilo Gomez Tuya; Jonatan J. Gómez Vilchez; Stephanie Heitel; Andrea Herbst; Eric Hittinger; Martin Jakob; Gert Jan Kramer; Patrick Jochem; Martin Junginger; Daniel M. Kammen; Noah Kittner; Subramani Krishnan; Juliana Subtil Lacerda; Atse Louwen; David L. Mccollum; Dominik Möst; Hazel Pettifor; Ulrich Reiter; Oliver Schmidt; Steffi Schreiber; Katrin Seddig; Iain Staffell; Dalius Tarvydas; Michael Taylor; Ioannis Tsiropoulos; Wilfried Van Sark; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Ernst Van Zuijlen; Eric Williams; Charlie Wilson; Ryan Wiser; Christoph Zöphel. 2019. "List of contributors." Technological Learning in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy System , no. : 1.

Book chapter
Published: 22 November 2019 in Technological Learning in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy System
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Electric vehicles will play a dominant role in the transition to a low-carbon transportation system. As we track and forecast this evolution, learning rates help to quantify the historical rate and pace of change for emerging transportation options, the interaction of technology-specific and system-wide changes, and the economics of different policy options. In this chapter, we review the leading issues related to determining learning rates for electric vehicles and the potential scale-up for battery electric vehicles worldwide. Globally, electric vehicle deployment has increased rapidly over the past decade. Continued growth over the coming decade remains critical to achieve the level of ambition necessary to decarbonize the transportation sector. Therefore further data on learning rates and studies on innovation in battery electric vehicles are needed to enable and benefit from their decarbonization potential. In addition, research on incentives to develop appropriate technologies and policies to integrate electric vehicles into the existing electric grid infrastructure and transportation systems will inform further policy options and cost-reduction targets.

ACS Style

Noah Kittner; Ioannis Tsiropoulos; Dalius Tarvydas; Oliver Schmidt; Iain Staffell; Daniel M. Kammen. Electric vehicles. Technological Learning in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy System 2019, 145 -163.

AMA Style

Noah Kittner, Ioannis Tsiropoulos, Dalius Tarvydas, Oliver Schmidt, Iain Staffell, Daniel M. Kammen. Electric vehicles. Technological Learning in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy System. 2019; ():145-163.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Noah Kittner; Ioannis Tsiropoulos; Dalius Tarvydas; Oliver Schmidt; Iain Staffell; Daniel M. Kammen. 2019. "Electric vehicles." Technological Learning in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy System , no. : 145-163.

Journal article
Published: 09 November 2019 in Energy Research & Social Science
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The need for transitioning towards low-carbon energy systems, and the recent boom in available data, allows for a constant re-evaluation of global electricity sector decarbonization progress, and its underlying theoretical assumptions. Arguably, the existing decarbonization literature and institutional support frameworks focus on top-down supply side mechanisms, where policies, goals, access to financing, and technology innovation are suggested as the main drivers. Here, we synthesize eleven global datasets that range from electricity decarbonization progress, to quality of governance, to international fossil fuel subsidies, and environmental policies, amongst several others, and use methods from data mining to explore the factors that may be fostering or hindering decarbonization progress. This exercise allows us to present numerous hypotheses worth exploring in future research. Some of these hypotheses suggest that policies might be ineffective when misaligned with country specific motivators and inherent characteristics, that even in the absence of policy there are particular inherent characteristics that foster decarbonization progress (e.g., relatively high local energy prices, foreign energy import dependency and the absence of a large extractive resource base), and that the interaction of country-specific enabling environments, inherent characteristics, and motivations is what determines decarbonization progress, rather than stand-alone support mechanisms. We present the hypothesis that existing support mechanisms for decarbonization may be relying too much on blanket strategies (e.g., policies, targets), and that there is a need for support mechanisms that encompass a wider diversity of country-specific underlying conditions.

ACS Style

Diego Ponce De Leon Barido; Nkiruka Avila; Daniel M. Kammen. Exploring the Enabling Environments, Inherent Characteristics and Intrinsic Motivations Fostering Global Electricity Decarbonization. Energy Research & Social Science 2019, 61, 101343 .

AMA Style

Diego Ponce De Leon Barido, Nkiruka Avila, Daniel M. Kammen. Exploring the Enabling Environments, Inherent Characteristics and Intrinsic Motivations Fostering Global Electricity Decarbonization. Energy Research & Social Science. 2019; 61 ():101343.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Diego Ponce De Leon Barido; Nkiruka Avila; Daniel M. Kammen. 2019. "Exploring the Enabling Environments, Inherent Characteristics and Intrinsic Motivations Fostering Global Electricity Decarbonization." Energy Research & Social Science 61, no. : 101343.