SARS-CoV-2 virus infections in humans were first reported in December 2019, the boreal winter. The resulting COVID-19 pandemic was declared by the WHO in March 2020. By July 2020, COVID-19 was present in 213 countries and territories, with over 12 million confirmed cases and over half a million attributed deaths. Knowledge of other viral respiratory diseases suggests that the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 could be modulated by seasonally varying environmental factors such as temperature and humidity. Many studies on the environmental sensitivity of COVID-19 are appearing online, and some have been published in peer-reviewed journals. Initially, these studies raised the hypothesis that climatic conditions would subdue the viral transmission rate in places entering the boreal summer, and that southern hemisphere countries would experience enhanced disease spread. For the latter, the COVID-19 peak would coincide with the peak of the influenza season, increasing misdiagnosis and placing an additional burden on health systems. In this review, we assess the evidence that environmental drivers are a significant factor in the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic, globally and regionally. We critically assessed 42 peer-reviewed and 80 preprint publications that met qualifying criteria. Since the disease has been prevalent for only half a year in the northern, and one-quarter of a year in the southern hemisphere, datasets capturing a full seasonal cycle in one locality are not yet available. Analyses based on space-for-time substitutions, i.e., using data from climatically distinct locations as a surrogate for seasonal progression, have been inconclusive. The reported studies present a strong northern bias. Socio-economic conditions peculiar to the ‘Global South’ have been omitted as confounding variables, thereby weakening evidence of environmental signals. We explore why research to date has failed to show convincing evidence for environmental modulation of COVID-19, and discuss directions for future research. We conclude that the evidence thus far suggests a weak modulation effect, currently overwhelmed by the scale and rate of the spread of COVID-19. Seasonally modulated transmission, if it exists, will be more evident in 2021 and subsequent years.

Several species assembly mechanisms have been proposed to structure ecological communities. We assess the biogeography of seaweeds along 2,900 km of South Africa's coastline in relation to a thermal gradient produced by the Agulhas Current, and contrast this with the environmental structure created by the Benguela Current. We subdivided the coastline into “bioregions” to examine the regional patterning. To investigate the assembly mechanisms, we decomposed Sørensen's β-diversity into “turnover” (β_sim) and “nestedness-resultant” (β_sne) dissimilarities, and used distance-based redundancy analysis (db-RDA) to relate them to the Euclidean thermal difference, d_E, and geographical distance. Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM) were used as an additional set of spatial constraints. Variation partitioning was then used to find the relative strengths of thermal and spatially-structured thermal drivers. Spatial and environmental predictors explained 97.9% of the total variation in β_sim and the thermal gradient accounted for 84.2% of this combined pool. β_sim was the major component of overall β-diversity in the Agulhas Current region, suggesting niche influences (environmental sorting) as dominant assembly process there. The much weaker thermal gradient in the Benguela Current-influenced region resulted in a high amount of β_sne that could indicate neutral assembly processes. The intensification of upwelling during the mid-Pliocene 4.6–3.2 Ma (i.e., historical factors) were likely responsible for setting up the strong disjunction between the species-poor west coast and species-rich south and east coast floras, and this separation continues to maintain two systems of community structuring mechanisms in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean influenced sides of South Africa.

SARS-CoV-2 virus infections in humans were first reported in December 2019, the boreal winter. The resulting COVID-19 pandemic was declared by the WHO in March 2020. By July 2020 COVID-19 is present in 213 countries and territories, with over 12 million confirmed cases and over half a million attributed deaths. Knowledge of other viral respiratory diseases suggests that the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 could be modulated by seasonally-varying environmental factors such as temperature and humidity. Many studies on the environmental sensitivity of COVID-19 are appearing online, and some have been published in peer-reviewed journals. Initially, these studies raised the hypothesis that climatic conditions would subdue the viral transmission rate in places entering the boreal summer and that southern hemisphere countries would experience enhanced disease. For the latter, the COVID-19 peak would coincide with the peak of the influenza season, increasing misdiagnosis and placing an additional burden on health systems. In this review, we assess the evidence that environmental drivers are a significant factor in the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic, globally and regionally. We critically assessed 42 peer-reviewed and 80 preprint publications that met qualifying criteria. Since the disease has been prevalent for only half a year in the northern, and a quarter of a year in the southern hemisphere, datasets capturing a full seasonal cycle in one locality are not yet available. Analyses based on space-for-time substitutions, i.e. using data from climatically distinct locations as a surrogate for seasonal progression, have been inconclusive. The reported studies present a strong northern bias. Socio-economic conditions peculiar to the ‘Global South’ have been omitted as confounding variables, thereby weakening evidence of environmental signals. We explore why research to date has failed to show convincing evidence for environmental modulation of COVID-19, and discuss directions for future research. We conclude that the evidence thus far suggests a weak modulation effect, currently overwhelmed by the scale and rate of the spread of COVID-19. Seasonally-modulated transmission, if it exists, will be more evident in 2021 and subsequent years.