As the fifth largest freshwater lake in China, Lake Chaohu has drawn increasing attention due to the decline in water quality and the occurrence of massive algal blooms. We applied an algae pixel-growing algorithm to MODIS Terra or Aqua data (2100 images) to characterize surface floating algae bloom dynamics from 2000 to 2013 with respect to meteorological and lake nutrient conditions. The results show an increase in surface algal bloom coverage, frequency, and duration with a trend toward earlier bloom formation. Importantly, spatial and temporal patterns in the historically less compromised eastern and middle lake areas show that water quality conditions are deteriorating. This has occurred at the same time as lake management has made a catchment scale effort to reduce impact. Our results show that nutrient concentrations were not the main driver of inter-annual bloom variations. Local meteorological conditions, in particular wind speed and temperature, played an important role in the dynamics of floating algal bloom. This highlights the important challenges for lake management.

Lake Chaohu, which is a large, shallow, hypertrophic freshwater lake in southeastern China, has been experiencing lake-wide toxic Microcystis blooms in recent decades. To illuminate the relationships between microcystin (MC) production, the genotypic composition of the Microcystis community and environmental factors, water samples and associated environmental data were collected from June to October 2012 within Lake Chaohu. The Microcystis genotypes and MC concentrations were quantified using quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) and HPLC, respectively. The results showed that the abundances of Microcystis genotypes and MC concentrations varied on spatial and temporal scales. Microcystis exists as a mixed population of toxic and non-toxic genotypes, and the proportion of toxic Microcystis genotypes ranged from 9.43% to 87.98%. Both Pearson correlation and stepwise multiple regressions demonstrated that throughout the entire lake, the abundances of total and toxic Microcystis and MC concentrations showed significant positive correlation with the total phosphorus and water temperature, suggesting that increases in temperature together with the phosphorus concentrations may promote more frequent toxic Microcystis blooms and higher concentrations of MC. Whereas, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) was negatively correlated with the abundances of total and toxic Microcystis and MC concentrations, indicating that rising DIC concentrations may suppress toxic Microcystis abundance and reduce the MC concentrations in the future. Therefore, our results highlight the fact that future eutrophication and global climate change can affect the dynamics of toxic Microcystis blooms and hence change the MC levels in freshwater.