The potential effect of climate change on regional suitability for cocoa cultivation is a serious economic concern for West Africa—especially for Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, whose cocoa cultivation accounts for respectively ∼19% and ∼45% of world production. Here, we present a modelling and observational study of cocoa net primary productivity (NPP) in present day and future West African climates. Our analysis uses a data assimilation technique to parameterise a process-based land-surface model. The parameterisation is based on laboratory observations of cocoa, grown under both ambient and elevated CO₂. Present day and end of 21st century cocoa cultivation scenarios are produced by driving the parameterised land-surface model with output from a high-resolution climate model. This represents a significant advance on previous work, because unlike the CMIP5 models, the high-resolution model used in this study accurately captures the observed precipitation seasonality in the cocoa-growing regions of West Africa—a key sensitivity for perennials like cocoa. We find that temperature is projected to increase significantly and precipitation is projected to increase slightly, although not in all parts of the region of interest. We find, furthermore, that the physiological effect of higher atmospheric CO₂concentration ameliorates the impacts of high temperature and variation in precipitation thereby reducing some of the negative impacts of climate change and maintaining NPP in West Africa, for the whole 21st Century, even under a high emissions scenario. Although NPP is an indicator of general vegetation condition, it is not equivalent to yield or bean quality. The study presented here is, nevertheless, a strong basis for further field and modelling studies of cultivation under elevated CO₂conditions.

Climate change poses a significant threat to agricultural production in the tropics, yet relatively little research has been carried out to understand its impact on mature tropical tree crops. This research aims to understand the genotypic variation in growth and photosynthesis in mature cacao trees in response to elevated CO₂ and water deficit. Six genotypes were grown under greenhouse conditions at ambient (ca. 437 ppm) and elevated CO₂ (ca. 724 ppm) and under well-watered and water deficit conditions for 23 months. Leaf- and canopy-level photosynthesis, water-use efficiency, and vegetative growth increased significantly in response to elevated CO₂. Water deficit had a significant negative effect on many photosynthetic parameters and significantly reduced biomass production. The negative effect of water deficit on quantum efficiency was alleviated by elevated CO₂. Genotypic variation was observed in several parameters including stomatal conductance, stomatal density and index, quantum efficiency, and biomass production, indicating the potential to develop more climate-change-resilient genotypes that can cope with predicted future climate change conditions. Elevated CO₂ reduced some of the negative effects of water deficit through changes in water-use efficiency and light utilisation and reduced the negative impact of water deficit on biomass accumulation, but this was genotype-specific.

Cacao is an important tropical crop and requires high-fertility soils for better growth and productivity; nevertheless, soils where this crop is grown are, in general, acidic and low in fertility. Therefore, germplasm with tolerance to soil acidity is desirable for cacao genetic improvement. The objective of this study was to evaluate cacao germplasm for early growth, nutrient concentration, and potential tolerance to soil acidity. A greenhouse experiment was conducted to evaluate 60 cacao genotypes with diverse geographic origins. Cacao seedlings were grown for six months in acid soil with and without lime. Growth parameters and the total concentration of N, P, K, Ca, Mg, Fe, Cu, Mn, and Zn were measured in shoots after harvest. Our results indicate that the best early growth predictors of acid soil tolerance are the number of leaves and root area. N, Ca, Mg, and K uptake may have a potential role in tolerance to soil acidity. Finally, the results revealed a large difference among cacao genotypes in terms of their responses to acid soil stress, which led to the selection of ten genotypes: CCN-51, PH-21, CCN-10, PAS-91, ICT-1087, ICS-95, UF-667, TSH-565, PH-144, ICT-1189 that are potentially tolerant to soil acidity and could be used for breeding acid soil-tolerant cacao varieties.