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This paper focuses on the interdependent relationship of power generation, transportation and CO2 emissions to evaluate the impact of electric vehicle deployment on power generation and CO2 emissions. The value of this evaluation is in the employment of a large-scale, bottom-up, national energy modeling system that encompasses the complex relationships of producing, transforming, transmitting and supplying energy to meet the useful demand characteristics with great technological detail. One of such models employed in this analysis is the BUEMS model. The BUEMS model provides evidence of win-win policy options that lead to profitable decarbonization using Turkey’s data in BUEMS. Specifically, the result shows that a ban on diesel fueled vehicles reduces lifetime emissions as well as lifetime costs. Furthermore, model results highlight the cost-effective emission reduction potential of e-buses in urban transportation. More insights from the results indicate that the marginal cost of emission reduction through e-bus transportation is much lower than that through other policy measures such as carbon taxation in transport. This paper highlights the crucial role the electricity sector plays in the sustainability of e-mobility and the value of related policy prescriptions.
Gürkan Kumbaroğlu; Cansu Canaz; Jonathan Deason; Ekundayo Shittu. Profitable Decarbonization through E-Mobility. Energies 2020, 13, 4042 .
AMA StyleGürkan Kumbaroğlu, Cansu Canaz, Jonathan Deason, Ekundayo Shittu. Profitable Decarbonization through E-Mobility. Energies. 2020; 13 (16):4042.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGürkan Kumbaroğlu; Cansu Canaz; Jonathan Deason; Ekundayo Shittu. 2020. "Profitable Decarbonization through E-Mobility." Energies 13, no. 16: 4042.
In this study, generation, transmission, and consumption stages are modeled with an in-depth technological detail. In addition to the reference scenario, the model is calibrated under carbon tax scenarios to obtain results that can provide insights for long and short term energy and environment planning and policy generation. According to the reference scenario results, Turkey’s greenhouse gas emission values are predicted to reach 1540 Mton CO2 by the year 2052 from its current value of 400Mton CO2. Also, potential emission reductions are projected as 22.47%, 24.04% and 27.4% under $10, $20 and $30 emission tax scenarios respectively. Additionally, this study reveals how the sector responds to emission taxes in a comprehensive way.
Gürkan Kumbaroğlu; Ilhan Or; Mine Işik. Karbon Vergisi ile Sera Gazı Emisyonlarının Azaltımı: Türkiye Vakası. Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi 2017, 14, 149 -174.
AMA StyleGürkan Kumbaroğlu, Ilhan Or, Mine Işik. Karbon Vergisi ile Sera Gazı Emisyonlarının Azaltımı: Türkiye Vakası. Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi. 2017; 14 (54):149-174.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGürkan Kumbaroğlu; Ilhan Or; Mine Işik. 2017. "Karbon Vergisi ile Sera Gazı Emisyonlarının Azaltımı: Türkiye Vakası." Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi 14, no. 54: 149-174.
At a time of increased international concern and negotiations for greenhouse gas emission reduction, country studies on the underlying effects of greenhouse gas emission growth gain importance. The case of Turkey is particularly interesting due to rapidly growing emissions, accompanied by a political will and actions to reduce the quick growth. The refined Laspeyres method is used in this study to identify factors that accelerate or reduce the increase in Turkish CO2 emissions. A year-by-year decomposition over 1990–2007 is carried out at sectoral level based on disaggregated data that is consistent over time and consistent with international standards. Various interesting results on the underlying effects of sectoral emission growth are found. Valuable insights are gained into CO2 impacts of sectoral policies including energy and emission intensities, fuel switching and activity changes. The results yield important hints for the planning of energy and climate policy.
Gürkan Kumbaroğlu. A sectoral decomposition analysis of Turkish CO2 emissions over 1990–2007. Energy 2011, 36, 2419 -2433.
AMA StyleGürkan Kumbaroğlu. A sectoral decomposition analysis of Turkish CO2 emissions over 1990–2007. Energy. 2011; 36 (5):2419-2433.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGürkan Kumbaroğlu. 2011. "A sectoral decomposition analysis of Turkish CO2 emissions over 1990–2007." Energy 36, no. 5: 2419-2433.
There is a worldwide interest in renewable electricity technologies (RETs) due to growing concerns about global warming and climate change. As an EU candidate country whose energy demand increases exponentially, Turkey inevitably shares this common interest on RET. This study, using an aggregate economic equilibrium model, explores the economic costs of different policy measures to mitigate CO2 emissions in Turkey. The model combines energy demands, capital requirements and labor inputs at a constant elasticity of substitution under an economy-wide nested production function. Growing energy demand, triggered by economic growth, is met by increased supply and initiates new capacity additions. Investment into RET is encouraged via the incorporation of (a) endogenous technological learning through which the RET cost declines as a function of cumulative capacity, and (b) a willingness to pay (WTP) function which imposes the WTP of consumers as a lower bound on RET installation. The WTP equation is obtained as a function of consumer income categories, based on data gathered from a pilot survey in which the contingent valuation methodology was employed. The impacts of various emission reduction scenarios on GDP growth and RET diffusion are explored. As expected, RET penetration is accelerated under faster technological learning and higher WTP conditions. It is found that stabilizing CO2 emissions to year 2005 levels causes economic losses amounting to 17% and 23% of GDP in the years 2020 and 2030, respectively.
Gürkan Kumbaroğlu; Nihan Karali; Yıldız Arıkan. CO2, GDP and RET: An aggregate economic equilibrium analysis for Turkey. Energy Policy 2008, 36, 2694 -2708.
AMA StyleGürkan Kumbaroğlu, Nihan Karali, Yıldız Arıkan. CO2, GDP and RET: An aggregate economic equilibrium analysis for Turkey. Energy Policy. 2008; 36 (7):2694-2708.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGürkan Kumbaroğlu; Nihan Karali; Yıldız Arıkan. 2008. "CO2, GDP and RET: An aggregate economic equilibrium analysis for Turkey." Energy Policy 36, no. 7: 2694-2708.
This study presents a policy planning model that integrates learning curve information on renewable power generation technologies into a dynamic programming formulation featuring real options analysis. The model recursively evaluates a set of investment alternatives on a year-by-year basis, thereby taking into account that the flexibility to delay an irreversible investment expenditure can profoundly affect the diffusion prospects of renewable power generation technologies. Price uncertainty is introduced through stochastic processes for the average wholesale price of electricity and for input fuel prices. Demand for electricity is assumed to be increasingly price-sensitive, as the electricity market deregulation proceeds, reflecting new options of consumers to react to electricity price changes (such as time-of-use pricing, unbundled electricity services, and choice of supplier). The empirical analysis is based on data for the Turkish electricity supply industry. Apart from general implications for policy-making, it provides some interesting insights about the impact of uncertainty and technical change on the diffusion of various emerging renewable energy technologies.
Gürkan Kumbaroğlu; Reinhard Madlener; Mustafa Demirel. A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies. Energy Economics 2008, 30, 1882 -1908.
AMA StyleGürkan Kumbaroğlu, Reinhard Madlener, Mustafa Demirel. A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies. Energy Economics. 2008; 30 (4):1882-1908.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGürkan Kumbaroğlu; Reinhard Madlener; Mustafa Demirel. 2008. "A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies." Energy Economics 30, no. 4: 1882-1908.
This paper shows how bottom-up activity analyses within a dynamic computable general equilibrium framework can be undertaken for the longer-term analysis of energy and climate policies using the model SCREEN [25]. In particular we demonstrate for the case of Switzerland how the impact of policy measures to reduce the carbon intensity of the energy sector can be assessed with such a model for various socio-economic and environmental dimensions (e.g., C02 emissions, GDP, employment, foreign exchange rate). The results can provide valuable insights for the appropriate design of energy or climate policies that allow for the targeted fostering of a more sustainable energy development.
Gürkan Kumbaroğlu. Energy and Climate Policy Analysis with the Hybrid Bottom-Up Computable General Equilibrium Model SCREEN: The Case of the Swiss CO2 Act. Annals of Operations Research 2003, 121, 181 -203.
AMA StyleGürkan Kumbaroğlu. Energy and Climate Policy Analysis with the Hybrid Bottom-Up Computable General Equilibrium Model SCREEN: The Case of the Swiss CO2 Act. Annals of Operations Research. 2003; 121 (1/4):181-203.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGürkan Kumbaroğlu. 2003. "Energy and Climate Policy Analysis with the Hybrid Bottom-Up Computable General Equilibrium Model SCREEN: The Case of the Swiss CO2 Act." Annals of Operations Research 121, no. 1/4: 181-203.