While the recent political transition in Egypt has delayed much-needed policy reforms, our paper suggests that under certain conditions, fostering the national renewable energy strategy may be a promising way of giving an ailing economy an urgently needed impetus. Based on the literature and results of a renewable-energy focused computable general equilibrium model, we recommend that Egypt supports the generation of wind power. While some energy may be exported to generate foreign exchange, a substantial part of the newly produced energy should be sold domestically to ease existing supply constraints and to avoid Dutch disease effects. In addition, and in order to maximize the benefits of renewable energy sources, the renewable energy strategy should be accompanied by a (further) reduction of energy subsidies. Finally, lessons from other countries suggest that sound institutions; appropriate, clear and lasting regulations; careful technology transfer; and cross-ministerial coordination are important for success.

Zusammenfassung In diesem Artikel wird ein Überblick über neuere Entwicklungen bei empirischen allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodellen (EAG) gegeben, wobei walrasianische Modelle weitgehend ohne makroökonomische Aspekte im Vordergrund stehen. Zunächst wird eine typische EAG-Modellstruktur dargestellt und die Erstellung einer konsistenten Datenbasis zusammen mit der Modellkalibrierung diskutiert. Neuere Modelle mit unvollständiger Konkurrenz werden im Anschluß dargestellt. Ein besonderes Problem bei der Berücksichtigung von diesen Modellen ist Kongruenz zwischen dem theoretischen Modell strategischen Verhaltens und den empirischen Tatbeständen herzustellen. Danach werden zwei Typen von dynamischen Modellen vorgestellt: Sequentiell, dynamische Modelle, die als Sequenz von statischen Modellen lösbar sind, und vollständig dynamische Modelle, denen eine explizite Modellierung der intertemporalen Entscheidungen zugrunde liegt.

With the recent discovery of crude oil reserves along the Albertine Rift, Uganda is set to establish itself as an oil producer in the coming decade. Total oil reserves are believed to be two billion barrels, with recoverable reserves estimated at 0.8–1.2 billion barrels. This is comparable to the level of oil reserves in African countries such as Chad (0.9 billion barrels), Republic of the Congo (1.9 billion barrels), and Equatorial Guinea (1.7 billion barrels) but far short of Angola (13.5 billion) and Nigeria (36.2 billion) (World Bank 2010). Using a conservative reserve scenario of 800 million barrels, peak production, likely to be reached by 2017, is estimated by the World Bank to range from 120,000 to 140,000 barrels per day, with a production period spanning 30 years. A more optimistic scenario in this study is based on 1.2 billion barrels and sets peak production at 210,000 barrels per day (see Wiebelt et al. 2011). Although final stipulations of the revenue sharing agreements with oil producers are not yet known, government revenue from oil will be substantial. One estimate, based on an average oil price of US$75 per barrel, puts revenues at approximately 10–15% of GDP at peak production (World Bank 2010). The discovery of crude oil therefore has the potential to provide significant stimulus to the Ugandan economy and to enable it to better address its development objectives, provided oil revenues are managed in an appropriate manner.