Foodborne disease is a major public health problem worldwide. To examine changes in foodborne illness in Australia, we estimated the incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths attributed to contaminated food circa 2010 and recalculated estimates from circa 2000. Approximately 25% of gastroenteritis cases were caused by contaminated food; to account for uncertainty we used simulation techniques to estimate 90% credible intervals. We estimate that circa 2010, 4.1 million foodborne gastroenteritis cases occurred, and circa 2000, 4.3 million cases occurred. Circa 2010, contaminated food was estimated to be responsible for 30,840 gastroenteritis-associated hospitalizations, 76 associated deaths, and 5,140 nongastrointestinal illnesses. Cases of salmonellosis and campylobacteriosis increased from 2000 to 2010 and were the leading causes of gastroenteritis-associated hospitalizations; Listeria monocytogenes and nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. infections were the leading causes of death. Although the overall incidence of foodborne illnesses declined over time in Australia, cases of foodborne gastroenteritis are still common.

Dengue occurred sporadically in Bangladesh from 1964 until a large epidemic in 2000 established the virus. We trace dengue from the time it was first identified in Bangladesh and identify factors favourable to future dengue haemorrhagic fever epidemics. The epidemic in 2000 was likely due to introduction of a dengue virus strain from a nearby endemic country, probably Thailand. Cessation of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) spraying, climatic, socio-demographic, and lifestyle factors also contributed to epidemic transmission. The largest number of cases was notified in 2002 and since then reported outbreaks have generally declined, although with increased notifications in alternate years. The apparent decline might be partially due to public awareness with consequent reduction in mosquito breeding and increased prevalence of immunity. However, passive hospital-based surveillance has changed with mandatory serological confirmation now required for case reporting. Further, a large number of cases remain undetected because only patients with severe dengue require hospitalisation. Thus, the reduction in notification numbers may be an artefact of the surveillance system. Indeed, population-based serological survey indicates that dengue transmission continues to be common. In the future, the absence of active interventions, unplanned urbanisation, environmental deterioration, increasing population mobility, and economic factors will heighten dengue risk. Projected increases in temperature and rainfall may exacerbate this.

Background:Salmonella is a leading cause of foodborne enterocolitis worldwide. Antimicrobial use in food animals is the driving force for antimicrobial resistance among Salmonella particularly in high-income countries. Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) infections that are multidrug resistant (MDR) (nonsusceptible to ≥1 agent in ≥3 antimicrobial categories) may result in more severe health outcomes, although these effects have not been systematically examined. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine impacts of MDR NTS on disease outcomes in high-income settings. Methods: We systematically reviewed the literature from scientific databases, including PubMed, Scopus, and grey literature sources, using preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. We included peer-reviewed publications of case-control and cohort studies, outbreak investigations, and published theses, imposing no language restriction. We included publications from January 1, 1990 through September 15, 2016 from high-income countries as classified by the World Bank, and extracted data on duration of illness, hospitalization, morbidity and mortality of MDR, and pan-susceptible NTS infections. Results: After removing duplicates, the initial search revealed 4258 articles. After further screening, 16 eligible studies were identified for the systematic review, but, only 9 of these were included in the meta-analysis. NTS serotypes differed among the reported studies, but serotypes Typhimurium, Enteritidis, Newport, and Heidelberg were the most often reported MDR pathogens. Salmonella infections that were MDR were associated with excess bloodstream infections (odds ratio [OR] 1.73; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32–2.27), more frequent hospitalizations (OR 2.51; 95% CI 1.38–4.58), and higher mortality (OR 3.54; 95% CI 1.10–11.40) when compared with pan-susceptible isolates. Conclusions: Our study suggests that MDR NTS infections have more serious health outcomes compared with pan-susceptible strains. With the emergence of MDR Salmonella strains in high-income countries, it is crucial to reduce the use of antimicrobials in animals and humans, and intervene to prevent foodborne infections.

Local weather influences the transmission of the dengue virus. Most studies analyzing the relationship between dengue and climate are based on relatively coarse aggregate measures such as mean temperature. Here, we include both mean temperature and daily fluctuations in temperature in modelling dengue transmission in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. We used a negative binomial generalized linear model, adjusted for rainfall, anomalies in sea surface temperature (an index for El Niño-Southern Oscillation), population density, the number of dengue cases in the previous month, and the long term temporal trend in dengue incidence. In addition to the significant associations of mean temperature and temperature fluctuation with dengue incidence, we found interaction of mean and temperature fluctuation significantly influences disease transmission at a lag of one month. High mean temperature with low fluctuation increases dengue incidence one month later. Besides temperature, dengue incidence was also influenced by sea surface temperature anomalies in the current and previous month, presumably as a consequence of concomitant anomalies in the annual rainfall cycle. Population density exerted a significant positive influence on dengue incidence indicating increasing risk of dengue in over-populated Dhaka. Understanding these complex relationships between climate, population, and dengue incidence will help inform outbreak prediction and control. The sensitivity of mosquito vector and dengue virus biology to diurnal temperature variability has been established, but this study is the first analyzing these relations with dengue occurrence. We show that Dhaka’s tropical hot monsoon climate and small variation in daily temperature enhance dengue transmission one month later. Large-scale climatic events like El Niño-Southern Oscillation and increasing population density of Dhaka also increase incidence. Our results therefore enable us to accurately estimate dengue transmission dynamics in densely populated areas that are also vulnerable to global warming by considering diurnal variability. Our approach reduces the chance of overestimating the effect of increasing temperature on dengue transmission intensity with the ultimate goal of outbreak prediction and control.

Background: Estimates of the burden of illness acquired from food inform public health policy and prioritize interventions. A key component of such estimates is the proportion of illnesses that are acquired by foodborne transmission. In view of the shortage of requisite data, these proportions are commonly obtained through a process known as expert elicitation. We report findings from an elicitation process used to assess the importance of the foodborne transmission route for nine pathogens in Australia, circa 2010. Materials and Methods: Eleven experts were asked to estimate the proportion of illness acquired by five transmission routes: food, environmental, water, person, and zoonotic, together with a 90% certainty interval for foodborne transmission. Foodborne estimates and intervals from each expert were combined using both modified triangular and Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) distributions, in @Risk version 6, to generate final distributions from which median estimates and 95% Credible Intervals (CrI) were calculated. Results: Shiga toxin – producing Escherichia coli (STEC) was the only pathogen believed to have an important zoonotic transmission route, while norovirus, hepatitis A virus, non-STEC pathogenic E. coli , and Shigella spp. were all thought to be primarily spread from person to person. Foodborne transmission was the main route for Clostridium perfringens (98%, CrI: 84 – 100), Listeria monocytogenes (98%, CrI: 86 – 100), nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. (72%, CrI: 50 – 87), and Campylobacter spp. (77%, CrI: 60 – 90). Foodborne estimates using the modified triangular distribution had wider CrI than these calculated using the PERT distribution. Conclusions: Foodborne proportions for most pathogens in this study were the same or lower than those estimated circa 2000 in Australia, with the greatest decline for non-STEC pathogenic E. coli . Inclusion of certainty intervals from experts helps to quantify the precision of foodborne proportions. A decline in estimates of the foodborne proportion for common pathogens will influence final estimates of the burden of illness acquired from food.